Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 January 7, 2010

Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 2008 Class On Line: http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

Today Who am I? Course Description Overview Some Questions and Discussion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

What is the Point of View that I Bring? Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high-performance computing. Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders. Participant in national and international assessments of ozone depletion and environmental impact of aircraft. Teaching this course for the fifth time.

What is the Point of View that I Bring? “Complex problems with no known solutions.” There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs. Blog data base. http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page

information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Security Food Environmental National ...???... Societal Success Standard of Living RELIGION POLICY ECONOMICS ENERGY ?????? “BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

From Course Description Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. Where should we pay attention? What do we know versus what do we believe? Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements How big is the problem? How is all of this changing?

Course Project Reflective of workplace … “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.” Groups of individuals with varied expertise Responsive to “news” Relationship of news to science Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. What are first steps? What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken? Monitor progress // briefing during the course Use of community web page Development of wiki book Possible publication on widely accessed web site. Presentation at end of course

Course News Project Grade will be determined on the project Start to think about them – perhaps today Teams that bring together several elements of the project Should be no larger than 4 people. Should not be your friends that have the same background. Should be defined by late January I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course That means I will provide management / customer oversight. Final presentations at the end Five or less small (1 page) writing exercises during the course.

Who are we? Name Major or Interest Any particular reason you wanted to take this course. When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?

Do you think that the planet is warming? Questions Do you think that the planet is warming? Is this warming consequential? Is this warming manmade? Can we do something about it?

Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change Some global climate predictions

The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

The prediction: Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial. The prediction: This is a remarkable opportunity. We have knowledge, with a high degree of confidence, what is likely to happen in the future.

Projected Global Temperature Trends 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC ‘01

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data. giss. nasa See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data. giss. nasa See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years Figure SPM.3. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13}

What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water Precipitation Evaporation Humidity Air Composition Air quality Aerosols Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

Thanks We’ll really get started next time!