1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501) Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood Winter 2008 January 8, 2008

2. Class News There were issues with ctools –Connection of class registrations –Not letting me upload Class Web Site and Wiki –http://mapenvironment.org/wiki/index.php?title=Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://mapenvironment.org/wiki/index.php?title=Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action –http://mapenvironment.org/wiki/index.php?title=Climate_Change:_Winter_2008http://mapenvironment.org/wiki/index.php?title=Climate_Change:_Winter_2008 First Readings: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html –And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htmhttp://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

3. Course News –Syllabus on the web site Because of pace of class and availability of speakers how we march through this material will be determined as we do it. Project –Grade will be determined on the project Start to think about them – perhaps today Teams that bring together several elements of the project Should be defined by mid-February –I will provide a template for thinking about the problem We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course Final presentations at the end

4. Course News QuikClimate –For those AOSS students who are starting in this course and moving to independent study on physical climate processes – Please send me your names by email.

5. Lecture Outline The Challenge of Climate Change: Course skeleton –Scientific Investigation The problem and the predictions Some impacts –Framework for response –Relationship to other problems Energy Population Consumption –Foundation of ethical questions –Relationship to other problems Causatives Impacts Scope –How do we infiltrate any response or solution throughout society

6. Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change Some global climate predictions Some responses to climate change What are the ethical questions?

7. The motivator: Increase of CO 2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

8. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. The prediction:

9. Projected Global Temperature Trends IPCC ‘01 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).

10. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

11. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

12. What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water –Precipitation –Evaporation –Humidity Air Composition –Air quality –Aerosols –Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

13. Ecosystems

14. Northern Hemisphere May-September Vegetation Changes 1982-1999 From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard Increase Decrease

15. Warmer Earth Greener North Longer Growing Seasons 3.3  1 day 5.9  1 day From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard

16. IPCC projections for the next 100 years.

17. Physical Climate Summary (Will be explored in much more detail) We have observations of CO 2 increasing We know CO 2 holds heat close to the Earth’s surface We have observations of increasing temperatures We have consistent observations of many correlated variables We have predictions of more warming and of expected correlated behavior

18. Scientific Investigation With significant certainty we can say –The Earth will get warmer –Sea level will rise –The weather will change The distribution and storage of water will change

19. We will arrive at a situation that looks like this Greenhouse Effect (Observation and Theory) Rapid CO 2 increase / Comparable to ice age – temperate difference Observations of the past. / Large and small climate shifts. / Relation between CO 2 and Temperature Anticipate consequential rise in global temperature / Rapid enough to disrupt society and commerce Should we be concerned ? NO YES There is some controversy here!

20. What to do? Let’s assume for a moment that we have convincing observations of climate change, convincing predictions of climate change, and that we will need to respond to the climate change. How do we organize this problem?

21. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

22. Some definitions Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. Resilience: The ability to adapt. Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.

23. A point or two Mitigation and adaptation have different characteristics. –A major one is the amount of time for them to be effective. The very long time scales of the climate change problem mean that any advantages of controlling the increase of CO 2 are perceived many years after the action to control the increase. –Cause and effect are difficult to evaluate –Cost and benefit are difficult to evaluate Adaptation is far easier to evaluate.

24. A point of tension The discussion of mitigation and adaptation is one of the places where we see tension of beliefs. There was, for some time, the idea that if we talked about adaptation, then we would dismiss mitigation. Plus to talk about adaptation would be to admit there is climate change. –Only recently that adaptation has entered into discourse. –What about global geo-engineering?

25. Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things

26. Climate Change Relationships We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGEENERGY

27. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 Source: International Energy Agency 2005 * megaton oil equivalent *

28. Climate Change Relationships Consumption // Population // Energy CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION SOCIETAL SUCCESS

29. Climate Change Relationships Climate change is also linked to consumption. –The economy depends on us consuming –Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change/

30. Foundation of Ethical Questions Contrast between rich and poor, haves and have nots. Those who use energy are not those most impacted by climate change. Those with wealth are more resilient, more adaptable. Winners and losers in climate change? Climate change versus the other challenges we face. Our use of knowledge

31. Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things Start here next time