Resource Loaded Schedule and Budget Profile

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Presentation transcript:

Resource Loaded Schedule and Budget Profile MICE-US: Resource Loaded Schedule and Budget Profile Peter H. Garbincius Fermilab August 13, 2014 DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

Outline Materials Posted on Review Website Definition of “MICE” has changed since P5 FY15-17 MICE Cost: Step IV, Step V, & Total Contingency: LOE = 0%, Labor 40%, M&S =30% Time contingency: Ready/Required, R&D Risk FTE breakdown Cash Flow from MICE => MTA and Adv. Srcs. US vs. UK FY US MICE Deliverables & Schedules RISK treatment August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

MICE Estimate by FY August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

MICE Estimate by FY August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

MICE Step IV + Step V = $ 18 M remaining costs FY15-FY17 Notice that MICE Step IV includes ~ $ 2.4 M for Support of MICE Step IV Experimental Program (46% of MICE Step IV total) August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

MICE FTEs August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

Migration & CASH FLOW US FY = Oct 1 – Sept 30 UK FY = April 1 – March 31 exactly 180 days out of phase! of course, I will use US FY for Roy’s next presentation, for US funding, he will use UK FYn/n+1 = ½ (US FYn + US FYn+1) the simple average August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

Remaining US MICE Deliverables Step IV Magnetic Shielding – Partial Return Yoke Fermilab contract for raw steel plate from Japan BNL contract to fabricate frames & walls Staggered (optimized) delivery schedule to RAL: South Frame November 26, 2014 South Wall January 24, 2015 North Frame March 2, 2015 North Wall March 24, 2015 Delivery of fabricated LiH Absorber disk to RAL Has been fabricated by ORNL Y-12 plant – at FNAL Working with Y-12 on delivery logistics to RAL August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

Remaining MICE Deliverables Step V Step V Partial Return Yoke – Magnetic Shielding Only conceptual design Expect to fabricate and deliver complete set of parts to RAL by Nov. 1, 2016 based on experience w Step IV PRY design & fab RFCC Critical path: CCM Cryostatting &Testing + RF Couplers (both March 2016) then RF Components to CCM Fit-Up => RFCC Expect to deliver to RAL by January 24, 2017 ALL U.S. MICE Deliverables to RAL in FY17 August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

RISK We apply special R&D Risks, both $ and time, beyond regular contingencies, typically 30% contingency on M&S and 40% on Labor (other than LOE), plus time float on selected tasks. Retired 2½ Risks since the MICE RLS Review at RAL in April: accrual/Risk est SCTS parts have arrived 9% SCTS assembly, started tests 23% CCM Cryostat body arrived at FNAL 0 % CCM Cooling Circuit & Thermal Shield - outstanding New RISK: Assembly & Test of CCM away from Fermilab, assume Prob(Risk)=100% August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

Mitigating the RF System Risk We have no longer “transferred” Risk to RAL as we discussed at MICE RLS Review in April We have successfully tested All-Seasons RF Cavity in magnetic field We are currently testing SCTS at MTA with magnetic field including offset to place RF power coupler in magnetic field. Have all RF cavity components for RFCC except couplers. Will release fabrication order after SCTS test and release the order for coupler surface preparation after coupler test in B-field. August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

RF R&D Risk Mitigation continued After testing with beam, SCTS will be sent to Daresbury Laboratory to be exercised with high power RF before RFCC gets to RAL We retain the full $ 1.25 M R&D Risk associated with the RF systems, but have reduced Prob(Risk) from 50% => 25% August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014 Risk Numerology US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

US MICE RISK Status Summary see table in back-up slides for details Retired Risks: Remaining Risks: SS Controls MICE Step IV Risks SS #1 & #2 w Mag Plate SS #1 & #2 Component Integration SS #1 & #2 Train/Re-Train SS #1 & #2 Ready for Operations PRY IV Design PRY IV Component Integration CC#1 Coil Tests MICE Step V Risks Cold Mass #2 Re-Design CCM Cryostat: Body CC Cryostat: Cooling & Shield SCTS Parts/Assembly SCTS Test RF Cavities Assembly & Testing RFCC Assembly RFCC Component Integration RFCC Beamline Integration PRY V Design Review PRY V Component Integration New RISK: assemble/test CCM external to FNAL August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

back-up slides below end for now… Questions? August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

MICE Construction Step IV & Step V August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

a little deeper… August 13, 2014 Peter H. Garbincius - MICE | DOE Review of MAP (BNL, August 12-14, 2014)

MICE Step IV & Step V flow by FY US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014 MICE RISK REGISTER – Aug 2014 US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

Retired US R&D Risks from November 2013 to April 2014 Plan was to assign, in addition to normal ~ 35% cost and time contingency, 50% of these identified R&D Risks – How have we done since November? US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

Risks Retired since RLS Review at RAL April 2014 10 – All parts for 201 MHz SC Mice test at FNAL retired $ 423 K RISK, accrued cost $ 40 K ~ 9% of RISK 4 – Assembly of 201 MHz MICE SC Test System retired $ 523 K RISK, accrued cost $ 120 K ~ 23% of RISK 9 – CC Cryostat #1 Arrives at FNAL (total $ 300 K) 9a. Cryostat body arrives – retire ½ Risk = $ 150 K 9b. Still awaiting delivery of Cooling Circuit and Thermal Shield have to keep ½ Risk still open = $ 150 K removed RISK Transfer to RAL (still against US MICE), but REDUCE Probability(Risk) → 25% by MTA tests of SCTS July – added New Risk (July): Extra Cost for CCM Fab & Test External to FNAL ~ 30% of Remaining costs => $ 275 K(at 100% Probability) US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014 Splitting risk on CCM Cryostat July 2014 = received CCM Cryostat Body – no RISK Still waiting on Cooling Circuit & Thermal Shield upcoming SCTS Tests in Magnetic Field at MTA, beginning early August 2014: uses same 201 MHz RF Cavity design as RFCC will including offset to test Coupler in Magnetic Field What we’ve already learned with All Seasons Cavity: Cavity behavior is “flat” above minimum B-field problem with RF Coupler input power window in B-Field but for RFCC installed at MICE, RF Coupler will be behind PRY and outside of magnetic field Will identify and reduce Risk of problems in RFCC Risk is no longer transferred to RAL, remains US MICE US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014 Risk Evolution US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014

Without transferring RISK to RAL US MICE Schedule, Cost, Risks - Garbincius @ RAL- April 29, 2014