FROM GAPS TO CAPS Risk Management Capability Based on Gaps Identification in the BSR Identifying capability assessment challenges and opportunities in the BSR STOCKHOLM 15-16th of November 2016 Polish Team

There are objective external circumstances which at present time force politicians and authorities at different levels of administration to make a decision concerning future events knowing that some of them might never happen. Events caused by Industry : Generally there are three types of surprises (especially dangerous hazards): One of a kind: ozone depletion, climate changes. First of a kind: DDT, pesticides Worst of a kind: Fukushima Natural cataclysms : 1. Earthquake, volcanic eruptions 2. Weather In 2015 there can be observed mass migrations inside some countries. The number of migrants in the world totaled 19,2 mln. ( 63 000 in USA)

Predicting the global threats the following issue can be arisen: WHAT CHALLENGES CAN BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FROM BSR PROJECTS RESULTS POINT OF VIEW?

THE FIRST CHALLENGE How to measure resilience Having results of : 14.3 Project “From gaps to caps” project, a possibility to measure regional (community, county, city) resilience emerges. This opportunity will allow us to compare the resilience strength of Baltic Sea Region countries and resilience strength of the entire Region. The resilience can be measured either with respect to local hazards or with respect to global hazard – according to Sendai strategy. Project “From Gaps to Caps” is a continuation of project 14.3 and should be considered as a necessary step to solve problems related to creation of resilience assessment methodology. Elaborated methodology will allow to compare different resilience among Baltic Region States and optimize regional structure of security.

Gathering together results obtained from both projects, the following procedure is proposed to be conducted: 14.3 Project “From gaps to caps” Project EU Guidelines BSR Methodology Resilience measure

“FROM GAPS TO CAPS “ Project ELEMENT 1 EXPERTS and Stakeholders selection PLANNNG Guidelines Description Description of Protected values GENERAL EVENT ELEMENT 2 BSR activities of el. 1 EU GUIDELINES Hazards Catalogue Hazards Identification BSR activities of el. 2 ELEMENT 3 likelihood Consequences BSR activities of el. 3 SCENARIO All these elements and steps are common for risk assessment (Project 14.3) and risk management capability (From Gaps to Caps project). TASK C

TASK C TASK D PROJECT 14.3 ELEMENT 4 INFLUENCE ON VITAL SOCIETAL FUNCTIONS BSR activities of el. 4 BSR activities of el. 5 prioritization ELEMENT 6 ELEMENT 5 CONSEQUENCES VULNERABILITIES & CAPABILITIES BSR activities of el. 6 TASK D Exercises & Emergencies Risk assessment & its prioritization LEDAERSHIP COOPERATION COMMUNICATION RESOURCES KNOWLEDGE TASK C PROJECT 14.3

Gaps identification SCORING THE RISK LIDERSHIP COOPERATION COMMUNICATION RESOURCES KNOWLEDGE Risk assessment & its prioritization Gaps identification scoring – capability indicators (extent of success) 0% - no capabilities at all …….. ....... 10% - no gaps at all SCORING THE RISK Small Medium High Very high Extreme It is time when scored capability indicators can meet again scored risk THEN It is worth to indicate that whole BSR procedure includes results of Flagship project 14.3 and two matrices and allows to construct the third one as well. First matrix is RISK MATRIX following project 14.3. Next one is CODI(fied) Matrix which confronts consequences with dimensions. The CODI Matrix allows to prioritize dimensions and to assign to each dimension proper weight.

Resilience Matrix is obtained Scored capability indicators 1.0 Very high resilience High Acceptable Temporary Resilience resilience acceptable Not acceptable 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 The first remark is that this common branch of both procedures indicates important property of resilience estimation. This is because, on the one hand, resilience is a function of risk and capability to manage it. On the other hand, generally speaking, resilience is a measure of crisis situation occurrence possibility. So, risk and ability to manage it are inseparable, if issues of avoidance of crisis situation emerging are considered. 0.0 Small medium high very high extreme Scored risk

How to use BSR Methodology in Sendai Programme ? THE SECOND CHALLENGE How to use BSR Methodology in Sendai Programme ? Understanding disaster risk Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience Enhancing response and recovery Directly related to BSR Methodology Indirectly related To Risk Assessment Project & BSR Methodology Resiliencies Comparison before and after priorities become materialized PRIORITIES

HOW SECURITY CULTURE INFLUENCES RESILIENCE ? THE THIRD CHALLENGE HOW SECURITY CULTURE INFLUENCES RESILIENCE ? Experts resilience value Security Culture How to describe society ? How the risks are perceived ? OUTRAGE what is “real” resilience like? Experts procedures Public resilience perceiving HOT DISCUSSION

More detailed challenges - some examples - elaborating procedure of experts selection In most cases experts from different branches should be involved into capability assessment process. A selection of proper experts is one of the most important factors to reach the success of capability assessment and one of the steps in capability risk management process. It seems that the way of experts selection needs special procedures and shouldn’t be based on intuitive feelings. elaborating fifth dimensions scoring procedure (this challenge might be considered as analogue to scoring the risk). It seems to be necessary unification of scoring methods for each of dimension. This unification allows us to compare risk management capability robust between different countries in the Region and then to compare resiliencies. - elaborating methods of aggravation of scored dimensions. To establish extent of ability to manage the risk capability it is necessary to aggravate results of each dimension scoring due to constructing relation consequences – dimensions (CODI Matrix)

More detailed challenges - some examples - creation of security culture description What elements of society characteristic are most influencing resilience of society? How community (cities, county) network can strengthen Regional resilience. investigating relation experts opinion – public outrage It is important to research public outrage phenomenon due to possibility of its positive or negative role with respect to resilience. elaborating risk communication ways in relation experts - decision makers, decision makers – public, experts – public. - elaborating a way of strengthening resilience providing for experts opinion and public risk perception

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION