PC05 Low Hydro Study Results June 24, 2015 Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Overview Production Cost Model Assumptions E3 Assumptions Geographic Variations Capacity Added for Study Results Generation Change Dump Energy Path Flows Scope Key Questions Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council PC04 Low Hydro Central Question: How does production cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change under Low hydro conditions? Change to starting input assumptions: Loads – none Transmission System – None Generation – 2011 hydro data substituted for median hydro data (2005) Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Generation Change Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Production Cost and CO2 Annual Generation by Category (MWh) Category 2024 PC1 15-01-19 2024 PC4 High Hydro Difference Conventional Hydro 238,955,786 176,221,457 (62,734,329) Energy Storage 3,592,412 3,724,575 132,163 Steam - Coal 227,755,474 233,593,115 5,837,641 Steam - Other 2,637,910 3,303,766 665,856 Nuclear 56,254,786 56,391,450 136,663 Combined Cycle 278,957,656 319,645,934 40,688,278 Combustion Turbine 51,794,128 65,251,516 13,457,388 IC 818,909 1,966,553 1,147,644 DG/DR/EE - Incremental 17,916,707 17,914,397 (2,310) Biomass RPS 19,581,287 21,475,649 1,894,362 Geothermal 31,937,139 31,908,321 (28,818) Small Hydro RPS 4,360,054 2,702,419 (1,657,635) Solar 38,182,163 38,127,504 (54,659) Wind 74,232,546 74,272,426 39,881 == Total == 1,050,342,237 1,049,864,361 (477,876) Cost (M$) 22,843 25,715 2,872 CO2 Cost (M$) 1,730 1,941 211 CO2 Amount (MMetrTn) 362 394 31 Dump Energy (MWh) 357,799 375,753 17,954 Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh) 15,426,008 15,597,348 171,340 Top section is the numerical part of the graph shown on the previous slide Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Changes in Total Annual Generation Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Generation Change By Subregion Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Generation Change by State Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Results – Most Heavily Utilized Paths “Most Heavily Utilized” = A path that meets any one of the following criterion (10-year plan utilization screening): U75 > 50% U90 > 20% U99 > 5% Uxx = % of year that flow is greater than xx% of the path limit Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip PC05 Low Hydro Path 75% 90% 99% -P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie 77.29% 54.62% 38.05% -P52 Silver Peak-Control 55 kV 46.91% 31.47% 0.00% P01 Alberta-British Columbia 12.11% 7.63% 5.71% P15 Midway-LosBanos 9.51% 3.31% 1.39% -P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line 8.41% 3.15% 1.62% -P76 Alturas Project 7.15% 3.03% P65 PDCI *NEW* P66 COI *NEW* P16 Idaho-Sierra *NEW* P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Results Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Results Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Path Flows Path 3 there is an increase in the path flow but still is not reaching any of the U ratings Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Path Flows Path 17 the path flow is increased slightly throughout the entire year Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Findings Decreased hydro availability results in an increase of production cost, and carbon emissions. The reduced hydro availability results in an decrease in hydro production to serve WECC wide load. Transmission impacts are minimal. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Western Electricity Coordinating Council Contact Info Dan Beckstead dbeckstead@wecc.biz 801-819-7657 Western Electricity Coordinating Council