1. Study Results High Gas Sensitivity Low Gas Sensitivity High High Gas Sensitivity Low Low Gas Sensitivity This slide deck contains results from the 2011 TEPPC Study Program. This study shows the results of how production cost, generation dispactch, and transmission utilization differ from the Common Case and a result of different gas prices.

2. 2 2022 PC1-3 – High Gas Price Sensitivity Central Question: How does production cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change if gas prices are greater than assumed in the Common Case (CC)? Change to starting input assumptions: –Loads – none –Transmission System – None –Generation – Henry Hub gas price increased from $5.43 to $9.50 ($2012), 175% of CC price Results follow…

3. 3 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation GWh (MWh) Other Results (see TEPPC Glossary for definitions) PC1 PC1-3 Difference%Diff Dump Energy397,104131,258(265,847)-66.946% Emergency Energy2,6763,29762123.201% CO 2 Emissions (MMetricTons)35936330.940% CO 2 Adder ($/metric ton)0.000 Variable Production Cost (thermal units excl DSM) CO 2 Adder (Total M$)0000.000% Other Variable Costs (M$)14,85121,3216,47043.565% Total Var. Prod. Cost (M$)14,85121,3216,47043.565%

4. 4 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Generation by State

5. 5 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Region-Region Transfers

6. 6 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization P45 SDG&E-CFE P29 Intermountain-Gonder P26 Northern- Southern California P03 Northwest-British Columbia P47 – Southern New Mexico P66 COI *NEW* Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common Case >5% Indicated in Red P08 Montana to Northwest P27 IPP DC Line P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P01 Alberta-British Columbia P60 Inyo-Control Most Heavily Utilized Paths75% Limit90% Limit99% Limit P45 SDG&E-CFE55.70%45.51%39.70% Interstate WA-BC West56.34%33.20%12.45% P26 Northern-Southern California46.48%33.03%25.19% P03 Northwest-British Columbia56.56%32.85%19.73% P08 Montana to Northwest54.49%26.83%11.72% P29 Intermountain-Gonder 230 kV43.98%26.48%16.32% P66 COI40.53%25.39%10.25% P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1)50.53%23.68%9.33% P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie33.34%17.42%5.88% Interstate WA-BC East32.15%15.08%7.88% P11 West of Crossover67.59%13.11%0.10%

7. Study Results Low Gas Sensitivity

8. 8 2022 PC1-4a – Low Gas Price Sensitivity Central Question: How does production cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change if gas prices are less than assumed in the Common Case (CC)? Change to starting input assumptions: –Loads – none –Transmission System – None –Generation – Henry Hub gas price decreased from $5.43 to $4.07 ($2012), 75% of CC price Results follow…

9. 9 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation GWh (MWh) Other Results (see TEPPC Glossary for definitions) PC1 PC1-4Difference%Diff Dump Energy397,104436,88939,78510.019% Emergency Energy2,6763,11443716.340% CO 2 Emissions (MMetricTons)359354(6)-1.576% CO 2 Adder ($/metric ton)0.000 Variable Production Cost (thermal units excl DSM) CO 2 Adder (Total M$)0000.000% Other Variable Costs (M$)14,85112,596(2,255)-15.186% Total Var. Prod. Cost (M$)14,85112,596(2,255)-15.186%

10. 10 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Generation by State

11. 11 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Region-Region Transfers

12. 12 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization P45 SDG&E-CFE P29 Intermountain-Gonder P26 Northern- Southern California P03 Northwest-British Columbia P47 – Southern New Mexico P61 Lugo-Victorville *NEW* Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common >5% Case Indicated in Red P08 Montana to Northwest P60 Inyo-Control P27 IPP DC Line P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P01 Alberta-British Columbia Most Headily Congested Paths75% Limit90% Limit99% Limit P45 SDG&E-CFE44.55%35.96%31.64% P26 Northern-Southern California49.84%34.24%25.00% P08 Montana to Northwest55.29%25.67%11.99% Interstate WA-BC West45.89%23.73%8.77% P03 Northwest-British Columbia44.95%23.18%15.38% P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1)45.78%22.47%9.18% P29 Intermountain-Gonder 230 kV42.18%19.24%8.16% P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie34.43%17.61%6.32% P11 West of Crossover60.83%14.33%0.00% P66 COI22.19%11.93%1.63% P01 Alberta-British Columbia13.61%11.12%9.54%

13. Questions or thoughts on this study?