© Crown copyright Met Office Availability and accessibility of global LRF products Richard Graham (Met Office Hadley Centre) acknowledgements to all GPCs and members of the WMO Expert Team on Extended and Long-range Forecasting (ET-ELRF) WMO workshop on strategy for implementation of CSIS, 5-7 April 2011, WMO HQ, Geneva

© Crown copyright Met Office WMO CBS coordination of centres producing long-range forecasts: Global Producing Centres (GPCs) 12 WMO-designated GPCs centres adhering to agreed procedures/standards in LRF – forming an integral part of the WMO GDPFS 2 Lead Centres, facilitating user access to GPC products Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast Multi-model Ensembles (LC- LRFMME) – jointly operated by KMA/NOAA NCEP Lead Centre for the Standard Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) – jointly operated by BoM/MSC Also WMO cooperating centres generating similar products Aim of this GDPFS infrastructure: improve access and usability of global LRF products to aid production of regional/national climate services Growing use at RCOFs and NCOFs

© Crown copyright Met Office GPC designation criteria have fixed production cycles and time of issuance; provide an agreed minimum set of long-range forecast products, 2m temp, precipitation, SST (averages of at least 1-month); any lead-time between 0 and 4 months. provide an agreed set of forecast quality measures (WMO Standard Verification System for LRF); provide up-to-date information on forecast methodology used; make products accessible to users (through website and Lead Centres)

GPC nameCentreSystem Configurati on (ensemble size of forecast) Resolution (atmosphere) Hindcast period used BeijingBeijing Climate CentreCoupled (48)T63/L CPTECCentre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies 2-tier (15)T62/L ECMWFEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Coupled (41)T159/L ExeterMet Office Hadley Centre Coupled (42)1.25°x1.85°/L MelbourneAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Coupled (30)T47/L MontrealMeteorological Service of Canada 2-tier (40)T32/T63/T95/2.0 °x2.0° (4- model combination) SeoulKorean Meteorological Agency 2-tier (20)T106/L TokyoJapan Meteorological Agency Coupled (51)T95/L ToulouseMétéo-FranceCoupled (41)T63/L WashingtonNational Centres for Environmental Prediction Coupled (40)T62/L MoscowHydromet Centre of Russia 2-tier (10)1.1°x1.4°/L PretoriaSouth African Weather Service 2-tier (6)T42/L The 12 WMO- designated GPCs

GPC products from LC-LRFMME website: DJF 2010/11: ensemble mean pmsl anomaly Exeter ECMWF Toulouse Beijing Washington TokyoMelbourne Seoul Montreal Coupled systems Un-coupled systems Pretoria ‘Dynamic’ user- selectable domain

Multi-model GPC products from LC-LRFMME website: DJF 2010/11, ensemble mean pmsl anomaly Ensemble mean of 10 GPCs Ensemble mean of 7 GPCs (coupled systems) Ensemble mean of 3 GPCs (un- coupled systems) multi-model subsets produced interactively from LC-LRFMME website Presented at South East Europe Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF), November 2010 Also: 2mT, precipitation, T850, Z500, SST, Nino plumes, model ‘consistency’ plots

Lead Centre SVSLRF ROC curves ROC score maps Reliability/sharpness diagrams Courtesy: David Jones (BoM)

Sample verification: ROC scores for SON precipitation, 1-month lead Toulouse WashingtonTokyoMelbourne above below 0.6

WMO Lead Centre information and final GHACOF consensus, SON 2010 LC-LRFMME Model consistency Statistical models + Forecaster judgement Final consensus Verification Observed SON anomalies

WMO cooperating centres & multi- model activities IRI ENSO plume APCN-MME EUROSIP: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France

Flow of global -> regional information: Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) Current state of climate plus outlook next 3-4 mnths ‘Mark0’ designed by GSCU scoping meeting and TT Target: RCCs, RCOFs, NMHSs (also global users) Example prediction component, Feb-April 2011 (will use LC-LRFMME products) Tercile category probabilities T2m ROC skill for most probable category Prototypes using Met Office forecast system

Expansions needed for CSIS: monthly / decadal timescales Extended range predictions important for many users (e.g. rains onset). Following WMO WWRP/WCRP/THORPEX workshop on seasonal to sub-seasonal prediction, LC-LRFMME is considering expanding its role to include extended (monthly) range forecasts. Initialised decadal predictions bridge the gap between seasonal and centennial predictions: Following recommendations of the ET-ELRF meeting 2010 (Exeter), the Met Office is conducting an experimental exchange of multi-annual to decadal forecasts; ~9 centres are participating. CSIS need for ‘decadal-GPCs’ and Lead Centre

Summary – global LRF 12 WMO designated GPCs designated GPCs – plus cooperating centres 2 WMO Lead centres:dealing with standardised display/multi- modelling and forecast validation Mainly deterministic products in active use by RCCs, RCOFs, NMHSs (~123 registered users, 49 countries) Some GPCs active in capacity building (e.g. at PRESAO, and GHACOF) Probability products are in development and will form basis of prediction component of the GSCUs Key plans (guided by the Expert Team for Extended and Long- range Forecasts) include: development of seasonal probability forecast products (GSCU) verification of multi-model products investigation/development of multiannual –to-decadal capability (decadal GPCs?) Investigation/development of extended (monthly) range capability

Thank you! Any questions?