Current European Affairs Jan Šnaidauf AAU CEE Integration Course 13 May 2009

Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration2 Financial Crisis  Europe hit hard – economies less flexible than US, will take longer to recover Primarily: investments in US CDOs Secondarily: crisis spillovers  All EU economies will shrink, some more some less (Germany ca. -5%, CZ ca. -3.5%)  Many countries have specific problems: finances in UK, high indebtedness in Hungary, Latvia…  Different measures to counter the crisis: financial injections, guarantees, scrapping bonuses, tax discounts (cars)  In the CR – proposals by NERV (& other party bodies)  Recovery will take at least one more year

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration3 Lisbon Treaty – ratification  One partial “victory” last week: the Senate voted in favor (47 votes)  Remaining obstacles: no presidential signatures in Germany, Czech Republic and Poland (in Ge there is a constitutional trial ongoing, there will be one in CR). Ireland will re-vote in a referendum  What happens if not approved? Possibly chaotic situation, ad hoc coalitions of countries My bet: Lisbon will go through, with some EU membership limitations for the rebelling countries

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration4 Lisbon Treaty - implications  More policy areas in QMV voting scheme in the Council (=loss of sovereignty???)  More power for national parliaments  European Council President  Single representative for external/foreign policies  New “European diplomatic force” (European External Action Service)

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration5 More integration  Western Balkans Visa problems, immigration problems Political problems (Gen. Gotovina) Issues with some member states (Germany), ‘new member states’ are in favor In the end: yes, it will go through  Eastern Partnership (Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Caucasus) Intensive cooperation (how exactly?) but no immediate prospects for membership  Turkey…

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration6 Russian revival  Russia continues re-asserting itself as a power (conflict with Georgia last summer, condemnations of the US missile defense system in CR and Poland)  New president (Medvedev) comes up with security- related proposals (October 2008)  Current security architecture in Europe “deficient“, there is need for a new comprehensive security treaty to prevent things like the Georgian “aggression”  Germans & French sympathetic  Our stance: current framework working, we have NATO, EU, OSCE. The system is based on values, there’s no place for power politics any more

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration7 Energy Security  Dependence on Russian gas (saw the crisis in January 2009)  Solutions Reverse supply – not a real solution New pipeline infrastructure in Europe (interconnections) – partial solution Big pipeline projects (North Stream, South Stream, Nabucco) – only 1 avoids Russia New technology: Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) – could be a real solution, but a number of questions (LNG price, entry costs, politics…)

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration8 Energy Security – pipeline projects North Stream, South Stream, Nabucco

13 May 2009Jan Snaidauf, AAU CEE Integration9 EU-US Relations  “New Transatlantic Agenda” of outdated  Many issues over - Iraq, Guantanamo, climate  Middle East agenda Af-Pak (EU must deliver on its commitments) Iranian nuclear program Peace Process – more coordination? Terrorism, its funding, WMD etc.  Global governance – UN, NATO,…….  Global financial architecture – changes  Global energy security – oil dependence  Political approaches (democracy in the world etc.)  General impression: quite hopeful, new US admin…