Chapter 7. Inter-Korean relations 16 October, 2014

Colonization by Japan from 1910 to 1945 Liberation from Japan in 1945, but division of the peninsula by the United States and the former Soviet Union Liberation from Japan in 1945, but division of the peninsula by the United States and the former Soviet Union Separate governments in both Korea claiming legitimacy Both Koreas confronting each other during 40 years under the Cold War Both Koreas confronting each other during 40 years under the Cold War Different strategies of both Korea competing diplomatically and militarily Different strategies of both Korea competing diplomatically and militarily Korean History…in short

Colonization by Japan Classroom in Korea during the colonial period

Liberation and Division The joy of liberation was soon to be dismissed by war

Ongoing Confrontation North Korean forces parading in Pyongyang Republic of Korea military during Armed Forces Day

Official Name; Democratic People's Republic of Korea Population; 24.5 million (2012) * estimated figure Territory Area; 123,138 ㎢ length of Borderline; 1,369.4 ㎞ Administrative Districts; 1 Directly Governed City : Pyongyang 2 Special Cities : Rason, Nampo Political Foundation of Regime; Sep. 9, 1948 Political System; Single party system under the Korean Workers´ Party Cabinet System; 42 (8 Committees, 30 Ministries, 1 Academy, 1 Bank, 2 Bureaus) Basic facts of North Korea Source: Ministry of Unification, 2012

Parliamentary Body; Supreme People's Assembly (687 members with 5-year term) Diplomacy Nations with Diplomatic Ties; 162countries (as of Dec 2012) Military Size of Military Forces; 1.19 million(Army : 1.02 million, Navy : 60,000, Air Force 110,000) Economy; Government Budget$ 6.22 billion in 2012 Nominal GNI$ 29.3 billion in 2011 Growth Rate; 0.8% in 2011 Trade Volume; $ 6.32 billion (Export : $ 2.79 billion, Import : $ 3.53 billion) Basic facts of North Korea Source: Ministry of Unification, 2012

Basic Facts, North Korea Satellite Picture of the Korean Peninsula

North Korean Economy  North Korea’s annual growth rate was -4.1 percent on average from 1990 to  Total production reduced to less than half of what it was at the end of 1980s.  About 20 percent of the total number of factories to have been in operation in the 1990s  North Korea’s economic crisis in the 1990s following the breakdown of preferential trade relations with China and the Soviet Union  North Korea’s annual growth rate was -4.1 percent on average from 1990 to  Total production reduced to less than half of what it was at the end of 1980s.  About 20 percent of the total number of factories to have been in operation in the 1990s  North Korea’s economic crisis in the 1990s following the breakdown of preferential trade relations with China and the Soviet Union Problems in North Korean Economy

10 Positive growth rate of about 2.2 percent on average from 2000 to 2005, but negative in 2006, for an average growth rate of -0.1 percent from 2006 to North’s trade deficit more than doubled from an average of $490 million in to $1.04 billion in North Korea recorded an average deficit of $1.2 billion from 2005 to Positive growth rate of about 2.2 percent on average from 2000 to 2005, but negative in 2006, for an average growth rate of -0.1 percent from 2006 to North’s trade deficit more than doubled from an average of $490 million in to $1.04 billion in North Korea recorded an average deficit of $1.2 billion from 2005 to Problems in North Korean Economy North Korean economy

GDP growth in both Koreas Source: Ministry of Unification, 2012

The End of Cold War Expectations were high for the future of the Korean Peninsula

However… First North Korean Nuclear Crisis in 1993

Rising expectations for unification in the early 1990s, but North Korea to survive based on Juche ideology and Military First politics North Korea to develop nuclear weapons to compensate for its weakened international position North Korea withdrawing from Non-proliferation Treaty in 1993, and continuing to develop nuclear weapons More serious confrontation between two Koreas and deepening nuclear dilemma Rising expectations for unification in the early 1990s, but North Korea to survive based on Juche ideology and Military First politics North Korea to develop nuclear weapons to compensate for its weakened international position North Korea withdrawing from Non-proliferation Treaty in 1993, and continuing to develop nuclear weapons More serious confrontation between two Koreas and deepening nuclear dilemma The rise of North Korea’s nuclear crises

⇒ Geneva Agreement(“Agreed Framework”) between US and North Korea (Oct. 1994) North Korea promised to freeze nuclear facilities and ultimately to give up all its nuclear programs The United States promised to provide energy to North Korea and build light-water reactor North Korea promised to freeze nuclear facilities and ultimately to give up all its nuclear programs The United States promised to provide energy to North Korea and build light-water reactor 1 st Nuclear Crisis in 1993

Another Crisis… The U.S. announced that North Korea admitted to having a clandestine nuclear weapons program(Oct. 16, 2002) - Highly Enriched Uranium North Korea announced its withdrawal from the NPT(Jan. 10, 2003) The U.S. announced that North Korea admitted to having a clandestine nuclear weapons program(Oct. 16, 2002) - Highly Enriched Uranium North Korea announced its withdrawal from the NPT(Jan. 10, 2003) 2nd Nuclear Crisis in 2002

North Korea ’ s WMD Development 3 Nuclear Tests, threatening 4th test since March 2014 – / / – Only country to conduct nuclear test in the 21st century 5 Long-range Missile tests

The Six-Party Talks (2003~) Outcomes of the Six-Party talks ― Joint Statement of the 4th Round of 6-party Talks (Sep. 19, 2005) ― Initial Actions for the Implementation of the Joint Statement (Feb. 13, 2007) ― Second-Phase Actions for the Implementation of the Joint Statement (Oct. 3, 2007) But the Six-Party Talks has reached a deadlock after its latest round in December 2008.

Recent Developments - Long-range rocket launch (Dec., 2012) - 3 rd Nuclear Test (Feb., 2013) - Threat of war against the Republic of Korea and the U.S. (Mar., 2013) - Reactivation of Yongbyon Nuclear Facility (Apr., 2013) - Blocking the Access to Gaesung Industrial Complex (Apr., 2013) - Release of the UN COI report on North Korea (Feb., 2014) - UNGA adoption of North Korean human rights resolution (Dec., 2014) o Additional UNSC Sanctions against North Korea : UNSCR 2087, 2094 o ROK-US alliance and deterrence capability strengthened o Diplomatic and Economic Isolation of North Korea

⇒ All its neighbor(U.S., China, Russia, Japan) and the international community are firmly opposed to North Korean nuclear and missile program on the record : UNSC Res. 1695, 1718, 1874, 2087, 2094 North Korean Nuclear Program is a clear and present danger to the international community North Korean Nuclear Programs and Security Dilemma

Opportunity Cost of WMD

North Korea’s Policy

ROK and the United Front

ROK’s Policy: Two-track Approach North Korea’s Abandonment of Nuclear Program

Thank you