1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 25, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 25, 2013 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over coastal eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern China, rainfall is below normal, especially near the southeastern coastal regions. Severe rainfall deficits continue over northern and central and interior Australia.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is showing significant deficits over south eastern China and northern central Australia. However, 30-day rainfall amounts that showed pervasive above normal conditions earlier over Malaysia, Philippines, across Indonesian maritime islands is beginning to develop some holes.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week rainfall was below normal particularly over south eastern China and also northwestern Australia. Elsewhere, weekly rainfall totals were sporadically either near or slightly above normal. Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over coastal eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern China, rainfall is below normal, especially near the southeastern coastal regions. Severe rainfall deficits continue over northern and central and interior Australia. The 30-day precipitation is showing significant deficits over south eastern China and northern central Australia. However, 30-day rainfall amounts that showed pervasive above normal conditions earlier over Malaysia, Philippines, across Indonesian maritime islands is beginning to develop some holes. This past week rainfall was below normal particularly over south eastern China and also northwestern Australia. Elsewhere, weekly rainfall totals were sporadically either near or slightly above normal In the upcoming couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall over southeastern China and northern Australia, where this relief is needed most.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology