Advancing the EU‘s Social Dimension: Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Dr. Jan Arpe & Dr. Thorsten Hellmann ETUI Monthly Forum Brussels, 2 nd June 2016

Page 2 SIM Europe - Reform Barometer 25 June 2015 Content Evaluates social reforms of the preceding year in the 28 EU member states Method Expert survey (web-based) Output (annual) Content Measures the state of social justice in the 28 EU member states Method Special evaluation of the SGI projectSGI Output (annual) Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Social Justice IndexReform Barometer Poverty Prevention Equitable Education Labor Market Access Social Cohesion and Non-discrimination Health Inter-generational Justice Policy Briefs Country-specific evaluations Debates Presentations in EU capitals Website will provide all data under a CC license ReportDataReportData Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Results: SIM Europe Social Justice Index

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Theoretical background Social Justice…  guaranteeing each individual genuinely equal opportunities for self-realization through targeted investment in the development of individual „capabilities“  investment in inclusion instead of compensation of exclusion  de facto equal opportunities as a conceptual ideal

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe EU key findings in brief  Children and young people disproportionately affected by social injustice  Gap between old and young continues to grow  Social divide between North – South remains immense  Social (In-)justice: Low point seems to have been reached, but no comprehensive turnaround evident Social Justice Index 2015

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Social Justice and GDP  Sound policy making matters for achieving greater social justice and not only economic prosperity  EU member states and EU institutions need to adopt a holistic view regarding the causes of social injustice, its impacts and potential political interventions

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Child and Youth Opportunity Index  Social Conditions for young people have worsened in the great majority of EU member states  26 million children under 18 are at risk of poverty or social exclusion (28 per cent) Spain 36 per cent, Greece 37 per cent, UK 33 per cent  5.4 million NEETs (18 per cent), Italy: 32 per cent  Positive: number of early school leavers declined

SIM Europe Reform Barometer – 2016 Results Preview

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Why assess social policy reforms?  Help advance the EU’s social dimension by providing timely data on national reform action  across the 28 EU member states  across 6 dimensions of social inclusion  on an annual basis  complementing the European Commission’s efforts with an independent assessment  Identify reform gridlock and best practices  Foster mutual learning and exchange between member states and the EU  Counterbalance the economic focus of European politics and thereby contribute constructively to the “Beyond GDP” debate

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Our Approach: The SIM Europe Reform Barometer The naïve way  List all reforms enacted in each country and each dimension  Ask experts to rate these reforms with respect to different aspects  Standardize, harmonize, aggregate data Challenges  What counts as “a reform”?  How do we retrieve the list of reforms for all countries and dimensions?  How do we make answers comparable across heterogeneous countries? Our approach  Ask many experts about the pursuit of universal policy objectives by national governments  Let these experts indicate relevant reform activity and quality

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Reform Barometer 2016: What We Did  Invited over 3,600 academics from across Europe to participate in the Reform Barometer 2016 online survey and indicate, for each country and each policy objective of their expertise (for the period 07/2014 to 01/2016):  Reform Need (on a scale from 0 to 3)  Reform Activity (Y/N)  Reform Quality (i.e., expected effect, on scale from -2 to +2)  Explanatory comments (text answers to open questions)  Survey period: March 2016

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Reform Barometer 2016: Dimensions and Policy Objectives Poverty Prevention Equitable Education Labor Market Access Social Cohesion HealthIntergenera- tional Justice Risk of poverty total pop. / seniors / children / single parents / foreign-born / refugees Equal opportunities early childhood / pre- primary / primary / secondary / tertiary / lifelong learning Employment total pop. / seniors / youth / women / LTU / low-skilled / foreign-born / refugees Inequality (income / wealth) Public healthFamily policy Struct. conditions as above Temporary contracts Gender equalityH. care qualityPension policy Quality of teaching as above In-work povertyIntegration policy Foreign-born Refugees H. system efficiencyEnvironmental policy Independence of learning success NEET rateH. system financingR&D policy Early school leaversH. care governanceFiscal policy (gov. debt) Refugee integrationOutcome perform. Health services accessibility / range Unmet med. needs

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Reform Barometer 2016: Data Coverage  1,151 participants  High coverage (12 countries): Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Spain  Medium coverage (11 countries): Croatia, Finland, France, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, United Kingdom  Low coverage (4 countries): Belgium, Estonia, Ireland, Slovenia  Very low coverage (1 country): Cyprus

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Reform Barometer 2016: Data Coverage Dimension # of countries in dimension ranking Poverty Prevention 27 Equitable Education 22 Labor Market Access 19 Social Cohesion and Non-discrimination 18 Health 20 Intergenerational Justice* 5 Overall 23 * Excluded from Overall rankings

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Reform Barometer 2016: Data Aggregation LevelReform NeedReform ActivityReform GapReform Quality Condition for inclusion in higher levels Expert 0, 1, 2, 3 Yes: Need No: 0 Yes: 0 No: Need -2, -1, 0, +1, +2 (Sub-)Policy Objective (SPO) Average over experts (unweighted) Average over Yes- experts (weighted by activities) >= 3 experts Policy Objective (PO, with Sub-POs) Average over available SPOs (unweighted) Average over available SPOs (unweighted) Average over available SPOs (weighted by activities) >= 50% of SPOs available Dimension Average over available POs (unweighted) Average over available POs (weighted by activities) >= 50% of POs available Overall Average over available dimensions (unweighted) Average over available dimensions (weighted by activities) >= 50% of SPOs available

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Results: Overall EU-level Findings Reform Need  The average overall reform need indicated by the experts is fairly strong (2.18 on a scale from 0 to 3). Reform Activity / Gap  On average, almost half of the reform need was addressed, the other half was not. Reform Quality  The expected effects of reforms were rated positively on average, with potential for improvement. EU Overall Results (5 dimensions) Reform Need Median2.18 Min1.55 Max2.39 Activitiy Rate Median46% Min23% Max65% Gap Rate Median54% Min35% Max77% Reform Quality Median+0.66 Min-0.06 Max+0.95

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Results: EU-level Findings at Dimension Level Reform Need  Similar picture as in overall ranking  Average needs range from 1.97 (Poverty Prevention) to 2.30 (Labor Market Access) Reform Activity / Gap  Somewhat lower activity rates for Equitable Education (34%) and Poverty Prevention (38%)  Somewhat higher activity rates for Health (57%) Reform Quality  Somewhat higher quality for Poverty Prevention (+0.80)  Somewhat lower quality for Labor Market Access (+0.46)  Widest range of qualities for Equitable Education (-1.03 to +1.50)

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Results: Overall Findings Across Countries Reform Need  High need in Southern Europe (exception: Portugal), but also in France and in the UK  Low need in Scandinavia, but also in the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Slovakia  Highest needs in dimensions:  Romania / Health (2.78)  Spain / Labor Market Access (2.76)  France / Social Cohesion (2.76)  Greece / Health (2.74)

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Results: Overall Findings Across Countries

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Results: Overall Findings Across Countries Reform Activity  Highest activity in Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania, Croatia and Lithuania  Least active countries: Spain, Slovakia  Low relevance of activity: Denmark, Sweden  Low activity rates: Greece (34%), Germany (35%), Hungary (36%), Italy (37%)  Highest activity in dimensions:  Ireland / Labor Market Access (2.30 / 95%)  Lowest activity in dimensions:  Slovenia / Poverty Prevention (0.19 / 10%)

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Results: Overall Findings Across Countries Reform Quality  Highest quality in Malta, Bulgaria, Croatia and Finland  Lowest quality in the UK, the Netherlands, Greece and Spain  Highest quality in dimensions:  Croatia / Equitable Education (+1.50)  Luxembourg / Health (+1.45)  Lowest quality in dimensions:  Spain / Equitable Education (-1.03)  United Kingdom / Equitable Education (-0.61)

Countries That Surprised Us  Slovakia: low need despite low SJI score / low activity / high quality  Bulgaria and Romania: on a good way to catch up?  Portugal: best performance among southern European crisis countries  Netherlands and Denmark: surprisingly low reform quality  France and UK: at risk of losing ground? Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe 23

Outlook Next Steps  Further analyses (e.g., cross-evaluation for integration of refugees, look more deeply into qualitative answers)  Preparation of study including dimension chapters, country overviews and graphics Publication Schedule  Public study launch (including website): early September  Presentations in Brussels, Berlin and Vienna from September 2016  SIM Europe Debates in Rome (July 4/5), Bratislava (Fall 2016) and Warsaw (Winter 2016/17) SIM Europe Policy Briefs  Italy (07/2016), Germany (09/2016), Austria, Poland, Slovakia (2016) Reform Barometer 2017  Survey: January 2017  Publication: May Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe 24

Feedback Wanted!  Your comments or ideas concerning  Data analysis (Should we look at specific topics?)  Presentation of results (print and web) (Any best practices we should look at?)  Communication: study launch / further opportunities to present results  Additional representation by traffic lights (red / yellow / green) for Need, Activity and Quality  Pros and cons of building an aggregate SIM Europe Reform Index on top (equal to activity x quality) Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe 25

Thank you very much! Contact Dr. Jan ArpeDr. Thorsten HellmannSIM Europe Reform Barometer Phone: Phone: Social Justice Index 2015 Reform Barometer 2015 SIM Europe Policy Brief UK

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe Idea: SIM Europe Reform Index Definition  Reform Index = Activity x Quality Highest Social Policy Reform Performance:  Bulgaria, Malta, Luxembourg, Croatia Lowest Social Policy Reform Performance:  UK, Netherlands, Greece, Spain

Social Inclusion Monitor (SIM) Europe