Randy Pullen Wages, The Economy & Law, Oh My!! October 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

Randy Pullen Wages, The Economy & Law, Oh My!! October 2015

TheEconomyfrom30,000 Feet U.S. & San Diego Economic Outlook October 2015

GDP Components 2014 Growth 1 st Half 2015 U. S. (Real) GDP 2.4% 2.8% Consumer Spending Gross Investment Residential Construction Non-Resid. Construction 8.1 Government Spending %GDP GrowthStillElusive U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP Accounts, Sept. 25, 2015

Growth After a Recession

Gap Between Actual and Potential GDP Persists After Seven Years billions U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Housing Starts

Small Businesses Lagging

Average Quarterly Real Growth 1965 – 2005 = 3.6% Four Decades of Real Growth (3.6% Avg.) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Six Years of Sub-Par Growth (2.2% Avg.) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Average Growth This Recovery = 2.2%

Accounts for 70% of GDP…but.. Consumers remain cautious Paying off debt & saving more Long-term growth 3.6% year First half growth was 3.2% Is this as good as it gets? The Cautious Consumer

Source: The Conference Board Index (Overall), August 2015 Consumer Confidence Recovers After Dipping to 10 Month Low DownDownDownDown UpUpUpUp

ConfidenceBack Up But ConsumersStill Worried Focus on Paying Off Debt Middle Class Struggles Wages Are Stagnant But Job Market is Better Worry About Wall Street?

$51,939 $56,434 Middle ClassFamilies Make LessThan Ten Years Ago $54,865

U.S. Has Regained All Lost Jobs Feb Bottom U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Jan Peak(138,365,000) May 2014 Recovery Time Period: 7 yrs 5 mos

Unemployment Rate Falls As Workers Drop Out (U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. Labor Force Participation Rate)

Unemployment Concerns Diminish Gallop Poll, February 2014 & July 2015 Top U. S. ProblemsJuly2015Feb Unemployment/Jobs 6%23 % 2. Economy in General 13%20% 3. Government/Congress 13%19% 4. Healthcare 4%15% 5. Federal Deficit/Debt 5%8%

New Top Problems: July 2015 Gallop Poll, July 2015 Top U. S. ProblemsJuly Economy in General13% 2. Government/Congress 13% 3. Race Relations 9% 4. Immigration 7% 5. Unemployment 6%

JOBS RECOVERY: Jobs to Foreign Born = 2.3 Million (32%) Jobs to Native Born = 4.9 Million (68%) All New Jobs Added = 7.2 Million Foreign Born Workers Hold One Third of Jobs Added in Recovery U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

The Dismal Track Record of Economic Forecasts “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Ezra Solomon and/or John Kenneth Galbraith.

Strength of Real ChineseEconomy DoesNot Justify10% Correction

U.S.Economic Outlook 10 th Year of GDP Growth Under 3.0% W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU & Blue Chip Economic Indicators, August 2015 Indicator Real GDP Growth1.5%2.4%2.3% 10 Year Treasury Note2.4%2.5%2.3% Inflation (CPI)1.5%1.6%1.1% Employment (Jobs)2.3 mil.2.6 mil.3.0 mil. Unemployment Rate7.4%6.2%5.3%

Data Overload I’ll pause so this information can sink in.

1 Ranked by % Change Yr/Yr as of July Top 10 Growth States U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics California Ranks Among Top 10 States in Private Job Growth 10

The Best S tates For Business And Careers Utah ,923,000 North Carolina ,901,400 4 Virginia 8,292, Colorado ,307,8005,307,800 2 California , ,499, RankStateBusiness Costs Labor Supply Regulatory Environment Economic Climate Growth Prospects Quality of Life Population Rank 37 North Dakota

States Median Income for 2014 RankState Median Income 1. Maryland76, New Hampshire73, Hawaii71, Connecticut70, D.C.68, California60,487 United States Census Bureau

San Diego County Population

San Diego Economic Outlook Based on data available as of August 2015 Indicators Unemployment (%) Employment (% Chg.) Population (000’s)35 25 Economic Growth (%) ?

Millennials (20-29) Largest Population Group - They Want To Be Home Buyers By2020!

5 Facts About Millennials… 1.Are now the largest, most diverse generation in the U.S. population. 2. Value community, family and creativity in work. 3. Are much more likely to have health insurance coverage than young adults in previous generations. 4. Tend to get married later than previous generations. 5. Have more college degrees than young adults in other generations.