Issues to Consider regarding Distributed Solar Dave Renné, Senior Consultant Clean Power Research Introduction to Forecasting of Variable Renewable Energy.

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Presentation transcript:

Issues to Consider regarding Distributed Solar Dave Renné, Senior Consultant Clean Power Research Introduction to Forecasting of Variable Renewable Energy New Delhi: June 15-17, 2016 Introduction to Forecasting of Variable Renewable Energy New Delhi: June 15-17, 2016

Understanding Variability is Key to High PV Penetrations DeSoto, Florida 25 MW PV Plant Source: Windlogics/FPL (Adam Kankiewicz) 

Geographic Diversity Reduces Ramp Rates Source: Source: Clean Power Research

Geographic Diversity Reduces Prediction Uncertainty Source: Source: Clean Power Research Fleetview Whilte Paper Avg. MAE of 4 individual locationsAvg. MAE of 4 locations combined “Regional solar resource predictions are considerably more accurate than single site predictions.”

Issues to Consider for High-Pen Solar Source: Geographic Diversity of Solar PV smooths out variability Consider the role of microgrids in meeting off-grid PV targets Behind the Meter forecasting important for accurate load forecasts DSM: What might be role of solar heating and cooling? …and how will low PV prices affect the future of SHC? The role of storage…

Energy Storage can Shift Time of Use of solar technologies such as CSP Source: IEA Solar Thermal Roadmap, 2014 Thermal Storage Uncouples Electricity Generation from Solar Energy Collection