Seminar in honour of Alan Holmans Monday 7 December 2015 London School of Economics Housing need and demand in Wales 2011 to 2031 Sarah Monk

Housing need and demand in Wales 2011 to 2031 This turned out to be Alan’s final piece of work although it had started in March The delays were partly related to data availability. Census data in the format required for Alan’s method were not available, so instead he updated previous estimates using survey data. But equally important was Alan’s view that straight line projections based on would produce under- estimates of housing need and demand, especially in the more distant future.

An alternative household projection So Alan produced two sets of estimates, one based on the official household projections for Wales, and one based on an “alternative” projection in which the impacts of the 2008 recession and the fall in inward migration during the period are faded out over time. This of course produced higher estimates of the need for new housebuilding in both the private (market) sector and the affordable (social) sector.

Census data Meanwhile, the census data that Alan had originally requested became available so both sets of estimates had to be done again. Census data at a small spatial scale also allowed a regional breakdown of estimates to be made, something Alan had not done using survey data because he did not consider it sufficiently robust. By now in hospital following a collapsed knee, Alan somehow produced the revised national estimates and the new set of regional estimates using as usual a pocket calculator. Sadly he died before he could proof-read the final report, so it was completed without him – thanks particularly to Chihiro Udagawa.

Results Based on the principal projection, it is estimated that over the period 2011 to 2031 an additional 174,000 units (houses or flats) will be needed in Wales, or 8,700 a year. Of these 60% would be in the market sector (5,200 a year, 104,000 over the period) and 40% in the social sector (3,500 a year, 70,000 over the period). The alternative projection leads to a higher estimate of need and demand: 240,000 units over the period, or 12,000 a year, with 58% in the market sector (7,000 a year, 140,000 over the period) and 42% in the social sector (5,000 a year, 100,000 over the period). Historically, since 1991 building rates in Wales have been declining, from 9,500 a year on average between 1991/2 and 1995/6, to just 7,360 for the period 2006/7 to 2010/11.

Implications The implications of Alan’s analysis are that if housing need and demand in Wales is to be met, there needs to be a return to rates of new housebuilding not seen for 20 years, as well as an increase in the rate of growth of affordable housing. I do think it is interesting how often Alan has been proved right – not necessarily in terms of the actual numbers, but the general magnitude and direction of change. Wales, like England, has not produced sufficient new homes for the increase in households, and if it sticks to the “principal” projection, it is very likely to fail to do so in the future.