Presentation on theme: "ALB-3 Paper 1 Headline Measures and Business Intelligence Data Pack."— Presentation transcript:
ALB-3 Paper 1 Headline Measures and Business Intelligence Data Pack
Data sources Figures relating to 2012-13 have been derived using the 903 data (for children) and Ofsted data (for adopters). Figures relating to 2013-14 have been derived using the quarterly survey. Annual 903 data Local authorities provide data on their looked after children using the SSDA903 collection. Data are collected from all local authorities. The information is collected at child level and includes information about the child’s characteristics and their dates for each stage of the care process, including adoption. The data goes through thorough quality assurance and local authorities are able to update their historic data annually. We therefore view this as the most robust source of information on adoption. It is used to produce the Looked After Children statistical first release and the Adoption Scorecards. The latest data covers the 2012-13 financial year. Quarterly survey This pack has been updated with new quarterly data covering the final quarter of 2013-14. This is the first time we have been able to make estimates for 2013-14 based on actual full-year data. This quarter’s collection marked the first time responsibility for the data collection moved from DfE to the sector. The form sent to local authorities included new variables, the biggest change being that adopter data was requested at adopter level (previous collections asked for this aggregated to LA level). The response rate is promising, with 119 LAs (79%) returning in quarter 4 2013-14, an improvement on quarter 3 (69%). Estimates for 2013-14 are based on data provided by LAs who returned in all four quarters of the year. Therefore the latest analysis includes 53% of local authorities. The exception to this is the adopter timeliness information which was not collected in the same way in previous collections, and so in order to exploit the higher response rate we have included all LAs who returned in quarter 4 2013-14. Figures are scaled to the regional level to take account of non-responses. Other data sources Ofsted data - Ofsted publish annual data on the recruitment of adopters and the children placed with them. Data is collected on both local authority recruitment and voluntary adoption agency recruitment. We include information on adopter timeliness taken from this collection in this pack.
Latest data Key findings for the four headline measures are: Children waiting“The number of children with a placement order waiting to be placed” The latest annual data shows that there were 6,000 children with a placement order waiting to be placed with an adoptive family as at 31 March 2013. Quarterly data suggests that there has been a 24% decrease to 4,550 at the end of 2013-14. The number of new placement orders granted has decreased since quarter 2 2013-14, falling by 46% (from 1,570 to 850) to quarter 4. The number of new decisions has also decreased since quarter 2, falling by 39% (from 1,800 to 1,100) to quarter 4. Adopter Gap“The difference between the ‘number of adopters needed for children with a placement order waiting to be placed’ and the ‘number of adopters waiting to be matched” Our most recent estimate for the “adopter gap” suggests we need to approve 3,100 more adopters to close the gap. Child Timeliness“The average time between a child entering care and moving in with their adopted family” The latest adoption scorecards show that child timeliness had not improved since the previous round. Quarterly data suggests there has been an improvement in 2013-14 (down 12% from 658 days in 2012- 13 to 581 days in 2013-14). This is encouraging but is still 34 days above the threshold and the three- year average will be higher. Adopter timeliness “The average time between an adoption agency receiving an application from a potential adopter to a child moving in to their home to be adopted” Latest quarterly data suggests adopter timeliness has improved since 2012-13: the proportion of applications approved within 6 months in quarter 4 2013-14 was 35%. This compares to 27% of decisions being made within 6 months of applications in 2012-13. The proportion of approved adopters matched within 6 months of approval in quarter 4 2013-14 was 78%, compared with 69% in 2012-13. Timeliness from application to approval has, however, been declining since quarter 2 2013-14.
1. Children waiting Children waiting with a placement order The latest annual data shows that there were 6,000 children with a placement order waiting to be placed with an adoptive family as at 31 March 2013. Quarterly data suggests that there has been a 24% decrease to 4,550 at the end of 2013-14. The number of new placement orders granted has decreased since quarter 2 2013-14, falling by 46% (from 1,570 to 850) to quarter 4. Children waiting with a decision Annual data shows that there were around 6,890 children with a decision that adoption was the best option who had not yet been placed with an adoptive family as at 31 March 2013. Quarterly data suggests that there has been an 11% decrease to 6,160 by the end of 2013-14. The number of new decisions has decreased since quarter 2, falling by 39% (from 1,800 to 1,100) to quarter 4. However, having increased during the first two quarters of the year, the total number of decisions in 2013-14 is still slightly higher than expected. Children with a decision who had not yet been placed by the end of March 2014 had on average entered care 22 months before (a decrease of 3 months from those waiting at the end of quarter 4 2012-13). This average is beyond the current threshold set in the adoption scorecards of 20 months. Waiting times by characteristics Please note there is currently a comparability issue between the annual and quarterly data with regards to the children waiting with a placement order measure. The quarterly data excludes children with an ADM decision reversal. Comparing the 4,550 quarter 4 2013-14 figure with quarterly data from the same quarter in 2012-13 suggests the fall in children waiting with a placement order was 17%, not 24%.
1. Children waiting The two charts below show the distribution of the length of time children wait between entering care and placement for those who were adopted. The average number of days for this cohort to be placed in 2013-14 was 581, an improvement from 658 days in 2012-13. This improvement was driven by an increase in the proportion of children placed within a year (from 19% to 28%). The charts below show how this compares to the distribution of the length of time children have spent waiting with a placement order as at 31 st March 2014. At 727 days (24 months), the average length of time this cohort has spent waiting is longer than the average time for those who have been adopted (and above the 2011-14 scorecard threshold). However, things are improving, with the number of children waiting 3 years or more having halved since 31 st March 2013.
1. Children waiting Regional breakdowns Children waiting with a placement orderChildren waiting with a decision ‘12-13 Q4 ‘13-14 Q1 ‘13-14 Q2 ‘13-14 Q3 ‘13-14 Q4 Q4 to Q4 diff ‘12-13 Q4 ‘13-14 Q1 ‘13-14 Q2 ‘13-14 Q3 ‘13-14 Q4 Q4 to Q4 diff North East 400270320290220-46%420 440420340-18% North West 1,0801,010950910820-24%1,1101,2301,2101,1401,010-9% Y’shire & the Humber 870720710650590-32%900890 870780-13% East Midlands 500630550490400-19%710740730640540-23% West Midlands 960410430400420-57%830640630600 -28% East of England 27047051050044061%650660670650590-10% London 600 570550490430-28%790710690610560-29% Inner London 270310260220190-31%350360320270230-34% Outer London 330260290270240-25%440350370340330-26% South East 850 900920800-6%9701,1101,2101,2001,12015% South West 470510540510440-7%51071070066061021% ENGLAND 6,0005,4405,4605,1604,550-24%6,8907,1007,1706,7806,160-11% Average number of days waiting with placement order Average number of days waiting with decision ‘12-13 Q4 ‘13-14 Q4 diff ‘12-13 Q4 ‘13-14 Q4 diff North East 884585-34%658531-19% North West 833671-19%802608-24% Y’shire & the Humber 896677-24%732613-16% East Midlands 887795-10%827689-17% West Midlands 981616-37%805590-27% East of England 966681-30%669610-9% London 958716-25%809653-19% Inner London 977783-20%791737-7% Outer London 942665-29%823592-28% South East 84694011%73286819% South West 907684-25%767616-20% ENGLAND 900727-19%763662-13% # of children waiting with POs has decreased in all regions except the East of England. The smallest decreases occurred in the Southern regions. # of children waiting with a decision has increased in the Southern regions Overall, the number of children with a decision but not yet placed has been decreasing since Q2 2013-14. This has resulted in decreases when comparing Q4 to Q4. The Southern regions, however have increased. Children wait the longest in the South East The East Midlands also have longer waiting times than the national average. The South East is the only region which has seen an increase in the average number of days spent waiting.
2. Adopter Gap The adopter gap is currently calculated on an annual basis from SSDA903 returns, Ofsted data and CVAA data. We are looking into ways of updating our estimate of the gap on a more regular basis using the quarterly return and hope to have a new estimate in time for the next ALB. The table below shows regional information from the quarterly survey on the number of adopters not yet matched compared to the number of children not yet placed. The data suggests the adopter gap is closing. NOTES: Regional figures include adopters recruited by LAs only. Figures relating to 31 st March 2014 figures are derived from the quarterly survey, adopter figures for 2013 are taken from Ofsted data and child figures for 2013 are derived from the annual 903 data. Adopters may adopt more than one child. The “adopter gap” is measured by calculating the gap between the number of adopters needed for children with a placement order who have not yet been placed and the number of approved adopters not yet matched with children. We estimate that this was 3,100 at the end of 2012-13. The key components of the adopter gap are: 2011-122012-13 VAA adopters not yet matched100200 LA adopters not yet matched1,9001,600 Total adopters not yet matched2,1001,800 Children not yet placed5,2006,000 Number of adopters needed4,0004,900 “Adopter gap”2,0003,100 Adopters not yet matched at Children not yet placed at 31 March 2013 31 March 2014 31 March 2013 31 March 2014 North East 105180400220 North West 170 1,080820 Y’shire & the Humber 155180870590 East Midlands 145220500400 West Midlands 170300960420 East of England 190150270440 London 290330600430 Inner London -150270190 Outer London -180330240 South East 200310850800 South West 180270470440 LAs in ENGLAND 1,6002,110n/a VAAs in ENGLAND 200350n/a ENGLAND 1,8002,4606,0004,550
2. Adopter Gap Adopter recruitment 7,160 applications in 2013-14 6,590 to LAs and 570 to VAAs. Information is not available for VAAs for 2012-13, but applications to LAs increased by 51% compared to 2012-13 from 4,360. 5,450 approvals in 2013-14 This is an increase of 32% from 4,120 in 2012-13. LA approvals increased by 31% (3,490 to 4,570) and VAA approvals increased by 40% (620 to 880). New 2 Stage Process 37% of approvals in quarter 4 2013-14 were made using the new two stage process. (38% in LAs, 29% in VAAs). The new process is quicker Approvals via the new process were 10 weeks quicker than those approved via the old process in quarter 4 2013-14. Stage 1 takes 9 weeks Stage 2 takes 16 weeks For adopters approved through the new process, the average time taken to complete stage 1 was 62 days (9 weeks) whilst stage 2 took 113 days (16 weeks). Progress in 2013-14 Q4 ApplicationsApprovalsMatchesPlacementsAdoption Orders North East 15011080 60 North West 15011070 Yorkshire and the Humber 160100908060 East Midlands 140210706050 West Midlands 25017010080110 East of England 170110908030 London 15012090 50 Inner London 706030 20 Outer London 9060 30 South East 240170110120110 South West 2001208090110 LAs in ENGLAND 1,6201,220780760650 VAAs in ENGLAND 330170120150100 ENGLAND 1,9401,380900910750 Regional figures include adopters recruited by LAs only.
3. Child Timeliness The latest adoption scorecards show that child timeliness had not improved since the previous round. Quarterly data suggests there has been an improvement in 2013-14 (down 12% from 658 days in 2012-13 to 581 days in 2013-14). These times are derived from the 2012-13 annual data Adoption scorecard The latest round of scorecards, covering 2010-13, showed that: The average time between a child entering care and moving in with its adoptive family (indicator A1) was 647 days (or 22 months). The average time between a local authority receiving court authority to place a child and the local authority deciding on a match (indicator A2) was 210 days (or 7 months). This was not an improvement on the 2009-12 scorecards and 65 local authorities missed both thresholds (20 months and 6 months respectively). 55% of children waited less than 20 months between entering care and moving in with their adoptive family (indicator A3). Quarterly data Latest quarterly data suggests that timeliness is improving: The chart below shows performance on indicator A1 in 2013-14. At 581 days this is closer to the 2011-14 threshold (547 days). This is encouraging but this is still 34 days above the threshold and the three-year average will be higher. Combining the quarterly and annual data suggests a 2011-14 three year average of 624 days. The timeliness of decisions and placements have improved, there was a 14% improvement in the average time each took from entering care between 2012-13 and 2013-14. Child enters care Court makes placement order (i.e. gives LA authority to place) LA decides on a match between child and adopter Child is placed with adopter Adoption Order Application made and child is legally adopted (after hearing) ADM decision in LA made for the child to be adopted Average time taken: 11 months Average time taken: 1 month Average time taken: 9 months Average time taken: 10 months
3. Child Timeliness Regional breakdowns Timeliness of decisions (days since entering care) Timeliness of placements (days since entering care) ‘12-13‘13-14% diff‘12-13‘13-14% diff North East 273225-18%577510-12% North West 294210-29%648578-11% Y’shire & the Humber 245181-26%605537-11% East Midlands 226169-25%595548-8% West Midlands 274242-12%656468-29% East of England 254186-27%593483-19% London 288216-25%643570-11% Inner London 288210-27%623598-4% Outer London 288220-24%660544-18% South East 28838734%634566-11% South West 287214-25%552519-6% ENGLAND 271234-14%618534-14% Timeliness for children who were adopted, A1 cohort (days) entering care to decisiondecision to placemententering care to placement 2012-132013-14% diff2012-132013-14% diff2012-132013-14% diff North East 316305-3%279268-4%595573-4% North West 396294-26%336324-3%731619-15% Y’shire & the Humber 266253-5%363306-16%629560-11% East Midlands 306217-29%328322-2%634538-15% West Midlands 358259-28%352302-14%710560-21% East of England 318266-16%331289-12%649555-14% London 353294-17%355314-12%707597-16% Inner London 364289-21%386322-16%749588-22% Outer London 344298-13%331306-8%675605-10% South East 317293-8%303300-1%620591-5% South West 2983001%25630820%55360710% ENGLAND 330277-16%328306-7%658581-12% South East decisions are taking longer The time taken to make adoption decisions has improved in all regions except the South East. 181-387 days 468-598 days The range of times taken to make decisions and to place children in 2013-14. 538-619 days The range of times taken for children adopted in 2013-14 from entering care to placement with adoptive family. Southern regions take longer to place children But the North West takes longest. 3 other regions averaged higher than the national average: London, South East and South West.
4. Adopter Timeliness Ofsted data – 2012-13 Application to decision LAsVAAsTotal Total decisions = 3,5206104,130 Less than 3 months 6%3%5% 3 months but less than 6 months 24%12%22% 6 months but less than 9 months 38%46%39% 9 months but less than 12 months 20%22%20% 12 months but less than 18 months 10%12%10% 18 months or more 3%4%3% Approval to match LAsVAAsTotal Total matches = 3,1705203,690 Less than 3 months 42%15%38% 3 months but less than 6 months 29%40%31% 6 months but less than 9 months 13%23%15% 9 months but less than 12 months 7%12%7% 12 months but less than 18 months 4%6%5% 18 months or more 4%3%4% The latest quarterly data suggests adopter timeliness has improved since 2012-13. The proportion of applications approved within 6 months in quarter 4 2013-14 was 35%. This compares to 27% of decisions being made within 6 months of applications in 2012-13. The proportion of adopters matched within 6 months of approval in quarter 4 2013-14 was 78%, compared with 69% in 2012-13. Timeliness from application to approval has, however, been declining since quarter 2 2013-14 (see next slide). Local authorities are quicker at making adoption decisions (figures below include refusals) and adopters approved by VAAs take longer to be matched. Quarterly data – 2013-14 Q4 Application to approval LAsVAAsTotal Total approval =1,2201701,380 Less than 3 months5%7%5% 3 months but less than 6 months32%15%29% 6 months but less than 9 months45%61%47% 9 months but less than 12 months11% 12 months but less than 18 months6%4%6% 18 months or more2%1% Approval to match LAsVAAsTotal Total matches =780120900 Less than 3 months49%20%45% 3 months but less than 6 months30%53%33% 6 months but less than 9 months10%14%11% 9 months but less than 12 months6% 12 months but less than 18 months3% 18 months or more2%3%2%
4. Adopter Timeliness Regional breakdowns The table below shows how adopter timeliness varies regionally. Please note that as this was the first quarter this data was collected and the small number of returns involved, caution should be taken when making comparisons between regions. Average number of days application and approval in 2013-14 Q4 approval to match in 2013-14 Q4 North East 183103 North West 212119 Y’shire & the Humber 221109 East Midlands 249112 West Midlands 24474 East of England 219119 London 218204 Inner London 225199 Outer London 213207 South East 248118 South West 209169 LAs in ENGLAND 221124 VAAs in ENGLAND 224173 ENGLAND 222131 NOTE: Regional figures include adopters recruited by LAs only. The chart below shows how timeliness has changed over each quarter of 2013-14 (for LAs only). Although timelines of approvals has improved in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13, quarterly data suggests there has been a decrease since quarter 2 of 2013-14 when 50% of approvals were being made within 6 months of application. In order to compare across four quarters, only LAs who responded in all four quarters are included in the chart below. The figures therefore may differ to those on the previous slide. Figures for quarter 1 to 3 are derived from the old aggregated adopter collection and are not fully comparable to quarter 4.
Contextual information 3,980 children were adopted during 2012-13 - up 15% from 2011-12. This is the highest number of adoptions since the current data collection began in 1992. Quarterly data suggests that 4,960 children were adopted in 2013-14, an increase of 25% on 2012-13. The majority of children placed for adoption were in care due to abuse or neglect (70%). This was higher than all children looked after at 31 March 2013 (62%) There were 68,110 children looked after at 31 March 2013. 5% had been placed for adoption whilst three quarters were in foster placements. There were 4,560 children placed for adoption during 2012-13. Quarterly data suggests that the number of children placed during 2013-14 was 5,210, an increase of 14% on 2012-13. There were 600 children adopted by their foster carers during 2012-13. This was 15% of all adopted children. There were 970 reversals of decisions to place a child for adoption during 2012-13. Reasons for these were: The child’s needs changed subsequent to the decision27% The Court did not make a placement order10% Prospective adopters could not be found37% “Any other reason”26%