1. Local Real Estate Trends & Market Conditions
Lisa Sturtevant, PhD
Lisa Sturtevant & Associates
November 1, 2017

2. Strong job growth has continued in the Washington DC region since the recession
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

3. Population growth has been steady but slowed in 2016
6,151,192
6,097,684
5,872,677
5,964,439
6,033,891
5,666,536
5,778,317
Source: U.S. Census (Decennial Census and vintage 2016 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

4. Home prices are up faster in 2017 than in 2014 - 2016
Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

5. Home prices are up across the region, creating challenges for would-be first-time homebuyers
Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

6. Homeownership rates continue to decline from peak, especially among younger households
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

7. Rents are still rising though at a slower pace in 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

8. Typical rents in the regon are still unaffordable for households at 50-60% of AMI
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 1-year file

9. The number of cost burdened renters in the region has risen significantly
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

10. The greatest challenges are for low- and moderate-income renters
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 1-year file

11. Housing costs are increasingly out of reach for middle-income working households
For example, the average monthly rent in Fairfax County was $1,774 in You need an income of at least $70,960 to afford the typical rent.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey; Economic, Demographic and Statistical Research; Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services

12. Housing costs are increasingly out of reach for middle-income working households
Retail Sales Person
Avg. salary: $29,552
Accountant
Avg. salary: $64,960
Graphic Designer
Avg. salary: $58,503
Workers in the public and private sectors have a hard time finding housing they can afford.
Security Guard
Avg. salary: $31,850
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey; National Housing Conference Paycheck to Paycheck

13. The Washington DC region has lost people to other parts of the country in recent years
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Intercensal, v2009 and v2016 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

14. In particular, the number of you adults in the region has declined since 2014
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2016 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

15. The high cost of living in the Washington DC metro area is a key reason for out-migration
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

16. For decades, DC has been a majority African American city but now less than half of the city’s population is black
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2005 American Community Survey 1-year file, 2014 American Community 1-year file. Tabulated by Lisa Sturtevant.

17. DC has lost low-income households and gained higher-income households
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2005 American Community Survey 1-year file, 2014 American Community 1-year file. Tabulated by Lisa Sturtevant.

18. The result has been increasing income divergence by race in DC
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

19. Gentrification pressures are not just a concern in DC

20. Key demographic and economic trends important to future housing needs in the region
Aging of the Baby Boom population
Family formation among Millennials
Changing employment patterns in the region
Types of jobs
Locations of jobs

21. Regional best practices for expanding housing options
Housing Needs Analysis
Greentape Development Review Process
Parking Minimums
Inclusionary Housing
Accessory Dwelling Units
Flexible Local Trust Funds
Community-Serving Land/Facilities
Land Trusts & Land Banks
Preservation Approaches

22. Local Real Estate Trends & Market Conditions
Lisa Sturtevant, PhD
Lisa Sturtevant & Associates