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© Kantar Worldpanel 1 A SUMMARY UPDATE OF GROCERY AND SHOPPER TRENDS up to and including CHRISTMAS 2009 A Presentation to the National Consumer Agency February 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel 2 THE MAIN HEADLINES FOR THIS CHRISTMAS -2009 1 Deflation in the grocery market falls to -7.2% in the 12 week period as overall spend continues to decline 3 The amount shoppers buy on promotion has increased 2 The value of the Irish Grocery Market in 2009 was €9 billion, down 3.5% in value terms year on year and down 6.1% in the final quarter 2009 compared with final quarter 2008. 4 In general shoppers visit more stores, shopping more often with smaller trips
© Kantar Worldpanel 3 How is the total grocery market performing? The market is down 3.5% in value year on year 52 we €000’s +5.7% -3.5%
© Kantar Worldpanel 4 The market is down 6.1% in value terms in the latest 12 weeks. 12 we €000’s +2.7% -6.1%
© Kantar Worldpanel 5 The market is down 7.5% in value this Christmas versus last. 4 we €000’s +2.4% -7.5%
© Kantar Worldpanel 66 Inflation and shopper reaction: As inflation moved into negative figures (deflation), household spend decreased at a faster rate but the volume of goods purchased by households actually increased. 12 w/e 24 January 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel 7 How is the market performing on trended basis? % value growth vs last year, 12 weekly trended. Market has been declining since Dec 2008.
© Kantar Worldpanel 8 SO HOW DID THE GROCERY SECTOR PERFORM? STEADY DECLINE IN SPEND DUE TO PRICE DEFLATION The size of Ireland’s grocery market in 2009 was €9 Billion and down -3.5% versus 2008. this decline accelerated to -6.1% in the final quarter and -7.5% in the final 4 weeks of 2009. Although countries such as mainland UK experienced shoppers trading up again at Christmas, there was no significant impact of this trend in Ireland during this time.
© Kantar Worldpanel 9 Rolling 4 w/e % change in grocery spend in Ireland (ROI) TNS Worldpanel – 12 W/E 27 th December 2009 The % change in household spend was negative for the second half of 2009
© Kantar Worldpanel 10 Value share Value growth Which sector is driving market change annually? Total Outlets 52 w/e 27 Dec 2009… general grocery is the only market that is not declining year on year.
© Kantar Worldpanel 11 The Christmas period has seen an increase in the number of multiples visited which has bucked the recent decline that has been happening Source: TNS Worldpanel No of stores visited for multiples
© Kantar Worldpanel 12 Private label took a higher share of the market although many households did switch back to brands during the holiday season.
© Kantar Worldpanel 13 The amount shoppers buy on promotion has increased +3 +1 +2 +1 +2
© Kantar Worldpanel 14 More price promotions in the market run alongside long term price cuts Promotional activity by type – % value Total Grocery Branded Grocery 52 w/e 12 w/e 52 w/e 12w/e
© Kantar Worldpanel 15 Promotional activity– 12w/e % value share WHAT ABOUT BRANDED VERSUS PRIVATE LABEL ACTIVITY? OVERALL, 2009 WAS STILL A STEP UP IN TERMS OF PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY AND BRANDED PROMOTIONS DROVE THIS
© Kantar Worldpanel 16 The long-term trend shows how important promotions have become Promotional Battle Price Point Focus Xmas Promo
© Kantar Worldpanel 17 We have seen more shopping around for the best deals. Shoppers visit more stores, shopping more often with smaller trips
© Kantar Worldpanel 18 Each shopping trip has become more rational and 57% of goods purchased cost less than €3, a 5 percentage point increase on 2008. 2008 = €26.30 2009 = €23.50 5 point shift to items under €3
© Kantar Worldpanel 19 Brief Overview of UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel 20 UK Shoppers have continued to manage their spend as inflation falls. Also interesting is the fact that when inflation was around 8% and higher, the % change in household spend remained constant at around 5%. Grocery Inflation and Change in Average Household Spend 12we % Grocery, 12 we Nov 29 th 2009
© Kantar Worldpanel 21 Promotions are becoming even more important to the main players in the UK. % of UK sales on deal (Big 4 only) 2008 – 31% 2009 – 34%
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