California Energy Commission 2015 IEPR Common Cases Introduction and Overview 2015 IEPR Workshop Rosenfeld Hearing Room February 26, 2015 Ivin Rhyne Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /

California Energy Commission Introduction Topics to Cover: Developing IEPR “Common Cases” Overview of Common Case Methodology Common Case Input Assumptions 2

California Energy Commission Purpose of “Common Cases” Three cases that easily translate across sectors Stronger analytical basis for policy discussions Not an “integrated modeling” approach Staff expanded coordination started in

California Energy Commission Common Cases Require Common Definitions Defining cases key to coordination “High” & “Low” not specific enough Three worldviews chosen to model Mid Energy Demand Case High Energy Demand Case Low Energy Demand Case 4

California Energy Commission Common Cases Begin With IEPR Demand Forecast Modeling requires starter values Recent natural gas production cost curves Updated economic and demographic data 5

California Energy Commission Graphical Representation of Iterative Modeling Process North American Gas Model CA Transportation Demand Models CA Electricity Demand Models WECC Electricity Dispatch Model CED

California Energy Commission Common Case Input Assumptions Gross Domestic Product Growth Inflation Gross State Product Population Changes Energy Efficiency Improvements Demand Response Carbon Prices/ Weather (HDD/CDD) 7

California Energy Commission Trade-Offs in High and Low Energy Demand Cases High and Low Demand Cases for one sector come at expense of other sectors Some trade-offs necessary in defining high and low cases Chosen approach was “Major Driver” test If input value was major driver in one model but not others, value set by model where major driver 8

California Energy Commission Resolution of Conflicting Variables Variable Electricity Price NG Price Crude Oil Price EV Penetration Coal Price NGV Penetration Controlling Model Electricity Natural Gas Transportation Electricity Transportation 9

California Energy Commission Understanding Model Results Mid Case reasonably expected trajectory given best available input High and Low Cases Energy Demand cases are reasonable range High and Low Cases Energy Demand are NOT most extreme possible 10

California Energy Commission Next Steps Staff presents key input assumptions March 10 – Webinar on production cost model inputs March 19 – Workshop on transportation inputs Refine common case assumptions and inputs Each modeling group will build other scenarios as needed 11

California Energy Commission Questions? 2015 IEPR Docket Click on “Submit e-comment” Choose 15-IEPR-03 from menu You may leave comments directly or upload documents 12