1. California Energy Commission Retail Electric Rate Projections: Revised Cases 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report California Energy Commission December 17, 2015 Lynn Marshall Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division Lynn.Marshall@energy.ca.gov/916-654-4767

2. California Energy Commission Changes from Preliminary Rate Cases 2 Revised Natural Gas Prices – blended forward prices with long term model results Preliminary (July 2015) demand forecast Incorporated utility-specific data from IEPR supply and demand forms for IOUs and larger public utilities: Current and projected energy and capacity resource mix by fuel type Utility procurement costs for non-gas-fired resources Utility-specific renewable targets Sector cost allocation factors Developed distribution cases varying with demand, customer growth, and escalation of non-load driven capital expenditure. Updated transmission rates Incorporated recent CPUC rate decisions and POU rate actions

3. California Energy Commission Rate Cases 3 –Mid Energy Demand Case: Mid demand, natural gas, and carbon prices Capital expenditure consistent with existing infrastructure plans, and customer and peak forecast –High Energy Demand Case (Low Rates) Low natural gas and carbon prices More sales to recover transmission and distribution and other relatively fixed costs Less investment in infrastructure –Low Energy Demand Case (High Rates) High natural gas and carbon prices Lower demand means fixed costs per kwh of sales are higher More investment to support distributed resources

4. California Energy Commission Natural Gas Prices (SCG Hub) 4 Source: Supply Analysis Office NamGas Model, September 15. 2015. Revised cases use a blend of forward prices and NAMGAS model results

5. California Energy Commission Natural Gas Price Mid Case Comparison 5 Source: Supply Analysis Office NamGas Model, September 15. 2015. Near term projections have declined but long term outlook unchanged.

6. California Energy Commission Carbon Price Projections 6 Source: Energy Commission Staff June 2015

7. California Energy Commission Electricity and Renewable Prices 7

8. California Energy Commission 8 Statewide Commercial Mid Case Annual average growth 2014-2024 of 0.7%, compared to 1.2% in the Preliminary, and 1.3% in CEDU 2014

9. California Energy Commission Statewide Residential Mid Case Annual average growth 2014-2024 of 0.94%, compared to 1.24% in the Preliminary, and 1.3% in CEDU 2014 9

10. California Energy Commission Residential Mid Case Rates Large Areas 10

11. California Energy Commission Commercial Mid Case Rates Large Areas 11

12. California Energy Commission Industrial Mid Case Rates Large Areas 12

13. California Energy Commission Burbank/Glendale Residential Rates 13 Reflects Glendale approval of 5 years of rate increases averaging 4.7% (nominal); Burbank rate increases have been lower.

14. California Energy Commission IID Residential Rates 14 2015 reflects 7.4% (nominal) rate increase to cover costs of greener portfolio, transmission costs, debt service, and FERC requirements.

15. California Energy Commission LADWP Residential Rates 15 Reflects proposed 2015 Rate Action to fund power supply transformation and grid reliability, in which residential rates increase an average of 5.2% annually (nominal) through 2020.

16. California Energy Commission Pasadena Residential Rates 16 Mid Case reflects rate action through 2018 to fund capital investments for distribution and automation projects, progress towards 40% RPS, and demand-side programs.

17. California Energy Commission PG&E Residential Rates 17 Incorporates PG&E 2017 GRC proposals.

18. California Energy Commission SCE Residential Rates 18 Wider range due in part to then-pending 2015 GRC decision.

19. California Energy Commission SDG&E Residential Rates 19 SDG&E more impacted by natural prices. Decrease in above-market costs and SONGS costs offset rate impacts post-2020.

20. California Energy Commission SMUD Residential Rates 20 High Demand Case rates are comparable to near-term SMUD management recommendations.

21. California Energy Commission NCNC Residential Rates 21 Average rates are slightly higher in NCNC than SMUD.

22. California Energy Commission Conclusions 22 Questions and Comments