1. Click to edit Master title style Projecting GHG emissions & removals New Zealand Leonard Brown New Zealand Climate Change Office Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004

2. Click to edit Master title style Institutional arrangements (for inventory & projections) Ministry of Economic Development Energy & Industrial Processes emissions Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Agriculture emissions Forestry removals & emissions Ministry for the Environment Waste emissions New Zealand Climate Change Office

3. Click to edit Master title style Energy Sector Projected energy emissions Emission factors Energy quantity model National GHG Inventory Energy prices Socio-economic GDP Population RDI Energy efficiency Price measures “With additional measures” scenarios “With measures” scenarios GDP 3.5% GDP 1.5% GDP 2.5%

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5. Animals by species: beef, sheep, dairy, deer - PRSM Productivity & emissions per animal. Forecast of nitrogen fertiliser usage. Agriculture Policies & Measures Environmental N constraints Price measures (C) Research $NZ Prices Weather Carrying capacity Livestock data

6. Click to edit Master title style Agriculture improvements General model development: data quality and equations Changes in input parameters over time, e.g. forage quality Sensitivity analysis and scenario building Improved estimation carrying capacity estimate Improved stock unit estimation by livestock class

7. Click to edit Master title style Forestry Key drivers Area planted in Kyoto forests to date Scenarios of future new forest planting Carbon accumulation models Assumed rotation length Deforestation 10000 ha 10% deforestation 20000 ha 5% deforestation 30000 ha 0% deforestation planting and Kyoto deforestation scenarios

8. Click to edit Master title style Forestry improvements Modelling Capability and Flexibility Improve modelling – scenarios, vary multiple parameters New Zealand Carbon Accounting System Refine & validate the accuracy of plantings since 1990 Refine and spatialise growth rates of planted forest Improve deforestation estimate Improve estimate of carbon in all pools for all forest

9. Click to edit Master title style Cross-cutting issues Transparency of methods, assumptions & data UNFCCC, New Zealand industry, NZCCO Consistency of assumptions across sectors GDP, population Uncertainty Monte-Carlo method – PDF, inputs & correlations Validation & verification assumptions, projected inputs, bias and uncertainty Long-term projections vs. inventory data and short-term windows