UNCLASSIFIED 304 th Civil Affairs Brigade Commanders Update Brief December 2015

UNCLASSIFIED Sirte Lake Chad attacks

UNCLASSIFIED BLUF: (U) : ISIS has established a stronghold in the Sirte, Libya. The Libya affiliate of ISIS is considered the strongest affiliate outside of Iraq and Syria. (U) Sirte is a port city along the Libyan coastline. The city is now entirely under the control of Islamic State leadership. (U) Libya’s lack of a functional central government, combined with a lack of armed moderate forces has made the country an ideal location for ISIS to operate. (U) ISIS is reportedly training pilots using leftover planes from the Qaddafi regime. The planes are small, and lightly equipped. They would most likely be used for suicide attacks on key targets. //Analyst comments // From Sirte, ISIS is able to project across all of North Africa. ISIS senior leadership may relocate to Libya to capitalize on ISIS’ relative operational freedom in the country. It is highly unlikely that the US will commit ground forces to stabilizing region. If ISIS succeeds in launching suicide plane attacks against allied targets, then coalition forces would likely provide anti-aircraft support to friendly forces and/or institute a no-fly zone in the region. Sourced: OSINT/ NY Times. ISIS Operations in Libya

UNCLASSIFIED BLUF (U): Violent attacks in LCB continue despite Nigerian counter terror operations and a state of emergency by Chad. (U) A coordinated triple suicide bombing at a market on Koulfoua Island killed 27 on December 5. The island was considered a refuge for people fleeing ISIS West Africa. (U) Chad declared a state of emergency in November 2015 in an effort to prevent travel along LCB water routes and within the mainland. The efforts have not been successful, and ISIS West Africa has been able to travel freely by water and land. ( U) ISIS West Africa has overrun islands in the LCB. These islands are an ideal base for mounting surprise attacks into the surrounding countries: Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria. //Analyst comments // Nigerian President Buhari has made it a national priority to defeat ISIL West Africa by the year’s end. Nigeria is unlikely to meet this goal due to their military’s inadequate training and resources. The Nigerian Army is likely to be heavy-handed in their operations and push ISIL West Africa further into the surrounding countries in the LCB. It is likely that the suicide bombings were conducted by ISIL West Africa and indicates they are being forced out of their strongholds in the Sambisa Forest and attempting to gain new territory in the LCB. The islands are difficult to patrol and secure as the LCB countries lack sufficient maritime capabilities. Sourced: OSINT/NY BBC. Lake Chad Basin

UNCLASSIFIED BLUF: (U): The US and Canada have both committed to granting asylum to a greater number of Syrian refugees. (U) The US is on track to take in 10K refugees in the next year. Canada intends on resettling 25K refugees. Both the US and Canada prioritize “vulnerable populations,” which include: women with children, the elderly, and people who require medical attention that is unavailable in Syria. (U) In both the US and Canada, refugees will undergo security screening, medical evaluation, and will be directed to supportive host communities. (U) The US utilizes nine Resettlement Support Centers to support the screening process. Canada currently has no plan in place and intends to rely on the US for security support. //Analyst comments // Canada is likely to lean on the US for support for screening and medical evaluations. Canada is likely to resettle the Syrian refugees sooner than the US and begin to feel social and economic strains in the next year. It is likely that if the initial refugees are appropriately screened and resettled, the US and Canada may take more referrals from the UNHCR. Xenophobia in the US is likely to restrict President Obama’s intentions of increasing the number of refugees granted asylum. Sourced : OSINT/ CBC Canada Refugee Resettlement