1. Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public Policy Chair, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University

2. 2 National Institute for Public Policy Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Immediate and potential provocations Deter whom from what? Violent Extremists (VE) Rogue States Peer / Emerging Peer WMD escalation, second WMD use –Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) –Suicide operations Small Group of Senior Leaders Audiences State Sponsors Org Ldrs Allies & Friends Leadership and general population N/A Military competition Dissuade Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE N/A Immediate and potential attacks Defend, Deny and Defeat Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations N/A Assure Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation N/A Small group or single leader Cells

3. 3 National Institute for Public Policy Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Immediate and potential provocations Deter whom from what? Violent Extremists (VE) Rogue States Peer / Emerging Peer WMD escalation, second WMD use –Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) –Suicide operations Small Group of Senior Leaders Audiences State Sponsors Org Ldrs Allies & Friends Leadership and general population N/A Military competition Dissuade Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE N/A Immediate and potential attacks Defend, Deny and Defeat Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations N/A Assure Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation N/A Small group or single leader Cells

4. 4 National Institute for Public Policy Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Immediate and potential provocations Deter whom from what? Violent Extremists (VE) Rogue States Peer / Emerging Peer WMD escalation, second WMD use –Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) –Suicide operations Small Group of Senior Leaders Audiences State Sponsors Org Ldrs Allies & Friends Leadership and general population N/A Military competition Dissuade Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE N/A Immediate and potential attacks Defend, Deny and Defeat Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations N/A Assure Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation N/A Small group or single leader Cells

5. 5 National Institute for Public Policy Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Immediate and potential provocations Deter whom from what? Violent Extremists (VE) Rogue States Peer / Emerging Peer WMD escalation, second WMD use –Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) –Suicide operations Small Group of Senior Leaders Audiences State Sponsors Org Ldrs Allies & Friends Leadership and general population N/A Military competition Dissuade Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE N/A Immediate and potential attacks Defend, Deny and Defeat Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations N/A Assure Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation N/A Small group or single leader Cells

6. 6 National Institute for Public Policy Policy Priorities and Effects Shape Appropriate Weapon Choice Audiences? Prioritization of Policy Goals? Trade-offs? Policy Objectives, Trade-offs and Effects May be Decisive, Not Targeting Efficiency