Pennsylvania Electric Supply GHG Forecast 1 Victoria Clark Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center 5/29/09

 Objectives  Data Sources  Assumptions  Methodology  Results  Uncertainties  Conclusions 2 Outline

 Establish GHG emissions from the PA electric supply sector in the Base Year (i.e., 2007)  Establish GHG emissions from the PA electric supply sector for the analysis period for mitigation options (i.e., 2008 – 2030)  Quantify GHG emissions on both a consumption and production basis  Identify key uncertainties and clarify outstanding issues requiring stakeholder input 3 Objectives

 Electricity Consumption – Sector-specific sales from Joe Sherrick and Blain Loper  PA Load Forecast – PJM Load Forecast Report, Jan  PA AEPS requirements – PUC EPO Report, Aug  2007 net generation and primary fuel use for PA power stations from EIA 906/920 federal database  Regional power pool characteristics from EIA’s AEO2009 modeling outputs using NEMS  Energy Conversion, Oxidation, and GHG emission Factors – US EPA 2003  Global Warming Potentials – IPCC 2 nd Report Data Sources 4

Assumptions - PA Electricity Demand (GWh) Key Assumptions Growth rate (%/yr) Method: sector-specific sales from extrapolated based on trend Includes impact from all new DSM and DG resources from RPS 145,392191, % 5

Assumptions - AEPS Total Requirements Alternative energy requirements (% of sales) Tier 1 (includes solar PV and wood products)1.5%8.0% Tier 24.2%10.0% Total5.7%18.0% 6

Assumptions - AEPS Breakdown 7

Assumptions – Planned capacity additions and retirements (MW) 8

Assumptions – Net generation by utilities/non-utilities subject to Act 129 (GWh) 9

Assumptions – Project generation by utilities/non-utilities 10

 Heat Rates 11 Power plant heat rate (Btu/kWh) Growth Rate (%/yr) Coal9,9799, % Nuclear10, % Natural Gas7,7437, % Oil11,30511, % Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)9, % Biomass10, % Landfill Gas (LFG)15, % Wind10, % Hydroelectric10, % Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Losses (%)6.62%6.60%-0.02%  Fuel quality  Coal & Oil: For assume equal to estimated 2007 shares  Plant parasitic load  On-site Losses assumed to be equal to the MAAC region for (based on EIA’s AEO2008),

 In-state sales projection incorporates savings from DSM and DG  Gross Generation –net generation adjusted upward to account for on-site parasitic load  Electricity Exports – difference between total PA generation and PA generation needed to meet in-state demand  Primary Energy Use – product of annual gross generation and average annual heat rate by plant type  CO 2 e emissions – product of primary energy (mmbtu), emission factor (tGHG/mmbtu) and GWP (dimensionless)  CO 2 e emissions (exports) – used PA system average 12

Fuel Gross Generation (GWh) Fuel use (Trillion Btu)Heat rate (Btu/KWh) Emissions (MMtCO 2 e) Coal117,2771,1709, Natural Gas15, , Other Gases1036, Petroleum1, , Nuclear77, , Hydroelectric2, , Geothermal0010, Solar/PV0010, Wind473510, MSW1,607169, Landfill gas193315, Biomass0010, Other wastes0010, Pumped storage , Exports59, Total215,6262,

14 Results – Gross Generation from PA Power Stations (215,626 GWh), 2007

15 Results – CO2e emission from PA Power Stations ( MMTCO2e), 2007

Growth rate (%/yr) To meet PA electricity demand 155,701204, % Exports to neighboring region 59,92480, % Total 215,626284, % 16 Results – Gross generation from PA Power Stations (GWh),

17 Results – Breakdown in gross generation from PA Power Stations (GWh),

18 Results – CO2e emissions from PA Power Stations (GWh), Growth rate (%/yr) To meet PA electricity demand % Exports to neighboring region % Total %

PA DEPCCS Difference Electricity Production [GWh] 274,795268, % Electricity Consumption [GWh] 186,860191,7382.6% Electricity Production [MMTCO2e) % 19  Forecasted GHG emissions in 2025 are about 25% less than the PA DEP estimate  Difference is likely due to sales forecast and the role of renewable energy, DSM and DG Results – Comparison to DEP GHG forecast, 2025

 EIA Data – All Power stations included, not just those that are required to comply with Act 129  In-State Production and Exports  Statewide fuel mix, emission factors, conversion factors (heat input to electricity output)  Resource Shares for penetration of renewable energy, DSM, and distributed generation (DG) 20

 Preliminary analysis concludes GHG emissions of 126 MMtCO 2 e for total PA production- based generation in 2030  Secondary analysis will be based on Subcommittee input ◦ Specific Generation Data from Act-129 Power Stations ◦ AEPS breakdown by fuel type ◦ Statewide fuel mix, emission factors, conversion factors specific to PA power generators ◦ Assumptions about capacity additions and retirements