Urban Institute Ireland/University College Dublin School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, Dublin, Ireland Eda Ustaoglu Scenario-Based Impact Evaluation of Rapid Rail Infrastructure Investments on Urban Form and Development in Greater Dublin Area Introduction Impacts & Indicators for the CBA Model COMPACT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO Population -steady population growth Economic Trends -steady increase in GDP -investment in manufacturing, human capital, high tech sectors, human capital -highly encouraged exports Spatial Development/Planning -polycentric urban growth -intensification of dense residential development inside the city Transport -investment in Metro North project in 2014 Overall Trends -high environmental protection -self-sufficient towns limiting commuting to central Dublin Area A ssociated with the globalization process, the growth of peri-urban areas in many of the European cities has resulted in significant consequences on the urban environment. Most of the cities have experienced dispersed or scattered type of development such as urban sprawl in contrast to their more compact structures which evolved until the 1950’s (EEA Report, 2006; UNFPA Report, 2007). Transformation from compact to more dispersed structures has significant implications: Traffic congestion, automobile dependence, air pollution, social segregation, decreasing quality of life are some of the problems resulting from dispersed or sprawl type of developments(UN-Habitat Report, 2001;2004). T he concepts of urban sustainable development and urban growth management within the context of sustainability have become the focus of interest. The main goal is to achieve urban management policies for sustainable urban form and efficient transport provisions: In which different modes of transportation alternative to private car, fewer trips and shorter trip lengths are emphasized through the integration of land-use and transportation Contributions to Literature & Research T his study intends to be a contribution to the literature in that it introduces MOLAND driven scenario analysis approach in the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) model in order to compare the land-use impacts of a baseline scenario with a with metro scenario in the Greater Dublin Area(GDA): -In the baseline scenario, it is assumed that there is no new rapid rail investment in the GDA, the city will continue to grow with the present trends, and presented a dispersed growth approach. -In contrast, with metro scenario considers Metro North investment project in the GDA. Metro North will encourage a transfer from private transport, assists in improving accessibility and land-use change which supports compact and mixed developments. G iven these two scenarios, the impacts of metro investment project will be assessed through the selection of related indicators, which are evaluated by utilizing the CBA model. Impacts/Indicators*Suggested Indicators/Impacts for the Present Study** 1.Direct Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure Provision -Transportation facility land values -Development costs/capital investments -Adjacent property values Costs/Capital Investments of Transportation Infrastructure (M) 2. Socio-Economic Impacts a. Land Development Impacts -Green space preservation -Public service costs Costs of Providing Public Services (M) b. Transportation-related Impacts -Savings in vehicle operation costs -Travel time savings -Reduction in risk of accidents -Comfort and convenience -Traffic congestion effects Vehicle Operation Costs (M) Travel Time (M) Accident Costs (M) c. Socio-Economic Development Benefits -Affordability (housing) -Affordability (transportation) -Social inclusion -Socio-economic growth -Land use/transport accessibility -Area property values Area Property Values (Q) 3. Transport Network Effects -Reliability/quality of transport service -Systems’ operating costs Systems’ Operating Costs and Revenues (M) 4. Energy and Environmental Impacts -Climate change emissions -Air/noise pollution exposure -Energy consumption Carbon dioxide Emissions (M) Local Air Pollution (M) Scenario Analysis from MOLAND Model Scenario-based CBA Method Conclusion & Future Work Figure 1: Compact Development Scenario, GDA Figure 2: Dispersed Development Scenario, GDA -The initial results from indicative CBA model support compact urban development which is achieved through Metro North infrastructure investment in the GDA. -Future work will cover: (a) inclusion of local area pollution values into the CBA model, (b) sensitivity testing of parameters considering the risk and uncertainty issues in the value of impacts and indicators, (c) Further MOLAND scenario analysis of prolonged recession in the GDA. -Scenario/case study analysis will be compared with the European city examples developed by PLUREL project. -The results from different scenario analysis may provide implications for the best future policy actions. The policy & practice best examples will be examined in relation with the PLUREL case analysis Table 1 : Impacts/Indicators for the Evaluation of Land-use Impacts of Rapid Rail Investments DISPERSED DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO Population -steady population growth Economic Trends -steady increase in GDP -moderate investment in high tech and service sectors Spatial Development /Planning -new constructions encouraged in rural hinterland -Dublin-Belfast transport corridor is supported Transport -improvement of regional and local roads -better links to the motorways Overall Trends -low environmental protection -dispersed single-dwelling housing growth in the countryside The assumptions related to socio-economic parameters, urban spatial planning and transportation policies utilized in the MOLAND model could be summarized as: *Adopted from: Janic (2003); Litman (2008) **(M) denotes the indicators with a monetary value while Q representing the qualitative or quantitative assessment Initial Results from CBA Discount RateENPVB/C RatioIRREvaluation Period 3.0%1,305 million €1.65/ (6%) (35 Years) 3.5%1,009 million €1.51/1 4.0%749 million €1.38/1 4.5%521 million €1.27/1 5.0%321 million €1.16/1 Table 2: Net Present Value of Costs and Benefits as at 2010 CBA Formulae Where St is the balance of cash flow funds comprising flow of benefits, (bt), and flow of costs, (ct); (at) is the discount factor, (r) is the discount rate, and n is the evaluation period (see European Commission Final Report, 2008) Note: Initial CBA results exclude the value of local air pollution