Workshop on the Criteria to establish projections scenarios Sectoral projection guidance: Residential and services Mario Contaldi, TASK-GHG Emanuele Peschi, TASK-GHG Ankara, March 2016

Outline Source description Economic assumptions: Activity data projections Technological assumptions Emission factor projections GHG projection indicators Source specific QA/QC Discussion 2

Source description 1A4 Other Combustion: 1A4a Commercial/Institutional 1A4b Residential 1A4c Agriculture/ Forestry/Fisheries/Fish farms In the residential sector, energy is consumed as input in processes that provide services to the households: space heating, water heating, cooking, cooling, lighting, other needs. 3

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General Points for GHG projection calculations Projection (methodologies) should be as consistent as possible with the (methodologies) for the estimation of annual GHG inventories Projections of CO2 emissions are best calculated on the basis of the amount and type of fuel combusted and its carbon content (all Tiers). Estimation of non-CO2 GHG: CH4 and N2O emissions (higher Tiers) require more technology specific information. General information needed: on population and GDP (absolute and for residential and services sector), GVA services 5

Activity data projections – Tier 1 The projections will be derived based on the latest historic inventory Tier 1 assumes that same technology split over the subcategories remains the same over time. Data requirements: – Final energy consumption in residential and services sectors and Agriculture – / Forestry / Fishing / Fish farms per fuel – Number of households 6

Activity data projections – Tier 2 & Tier 3 Tier 2: Tier 2 includes more information on technology representation and building characteristics (type of heating system, isolation, etc) Tier 2 method is based on national level energy model. The outputs should be checked with European energy model. Tier 3: Tier 3 is per definition any methodology that is more detailed than Tier 2. It can be a sector specific model which describes building stock. To ensure transparency the underlying methodology, assumption and other relevant information should be appropriately reported. Fuels used in this model should be consistent with the fuel used in European Regional Model 7

Emission factor projections – general information Emission factors are the output of the Technology module EFs for CO2 are based on the carbon content of the fuel The projections of other GHG EFs reflect technical characteristics of future technology, e.g. characteristics of heating equipment It is a good practice to develop an emission factor as detailed as possible: – EF per fuel – EF per technology type (boiler type, etc) 8

Emission factor projections Tier 1, Tier 2 &Tier3 Projected EF are based on most recent GHG inventories Tier 1: The EF projections assume that EFs do not change over time and they are taken from the latest inventory. Tier 2: The EFs are extrapolated by MS from historic value and reflect the technology development Tier 3: It uses more detailed country specific technology developments 9

GHG projection indicators Decision 2005/166/EC, Indicators for projections to monitor and evaluate progress with PAMs : Specific CO2 emissions of households (t CO2/dwelling) = CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption households, 1A4b (kt CO2) / Stock of permanently occupied dwellings (1000 dwellings) CO2 intensity of the services sector (t/EUR million) = CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in services 1A4a (kt CO2) / Gross value added services (billion EUR) Proposed indicators: Residential Population related carbon intensity: GHG emissions from residential sector / capita Fuel consumption related carbon intensity: GHG emission from residential sector / total final energy consumption in the residential sector Services Population related carbon intensity: GHG emissions from services / capita Fuel consumption related carbon intensity: GHG emission from services sector / total final energy consumption in the service sector 10

Source specific QA/QC Checking input and output data (e.g. energy consumption in residential and services sector) against data in international models/sources such as PRIMES, WEO Ensure that all remaining combustion activities are included: Agriculture/ Forestry/ Fisheries/ Fish farms (1A4c) 11

Discussion points What tier level can be achieved with available info Heating degree-days and cooling degree days Penetration of gas heating for residential sector Heating demand per building category [kWh/m²] Building types per energy-efficiency categories 12