1. Improving official statistics in EU for the purposes of emission inventories and climate analysis Júlio Cabeça, Eurostat Task Force on Climate Change related Statistics Geneva, 19-20 November 2012

2. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 2 Contents Eurostat & ESS: role & mission The inventory process at EU level The role of Eurostat (data provider) in the inventory process Eurostat as user of inventory data Improving synergies

3. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 3 Eurostat Statistical authority of the Union Its mission is to provide the European Union with a high- quality statistical information service It shall develop, produce and disseminate European statistics in accordance with the statistical principles of: –Professional independence –Impartiality –Objectivity –Reliability –Statistical confidentiality –Cost-effectiveness

4. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 4 The European Statistical System Partnership between –the Community statistical authority, which is the Commission (Eurostat), –and the national statistical institutes (NSIs) –and other national authorities responsible in each Member State for the development, production and dissemination of European statistics

5. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 5 Structure of Eurostat 7 Directorates: –A: Cooperation in the European Statistical System; international cooperation; resources –B: Corporate statistical and IT services –C: National accounts, prices and key Indicators –D: Government finance statistics (GFS) –E: Sectoral and regional statistics E2: Environmental Accounts and Climate Change E3: Environment and Forestry –F: Social statistics –G: Global business statistics

6. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 6

7. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 7 The EU GHG inventory system MS1MS2MS3… EEA DG CLIMA UNFCCC Eurostat JRC Improve quality Harmonise Evaluate

8. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 8 The EU GHG inventory system MS1MS2MS3… EEA DG CLIMA UNFCCC Eurostat JRC Improve quality Harmonise Evaluate

9. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 9 Reference approach (Tier 1) Top-down approach, straightforward method Uses country’s energy supply data (combustion of mainly fossil fuels): Estimates CO 2 emissions from based on national energy balance (own production coal, oil, gas + imports – exports) by fuel type without information on activities Easy/quickly after basic energy balance sheet is available Tool for cross-checking /comparing emission estimates of CO 2 with the sectoral approach (QA/QC) Rough idea of consumption: assumption that everything put on the market is also consumed i.e. combusted Part of the oil and oil products is not combusted but used for the production of plastic products etc.

10. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 10 Reference approach (Tier 1) Reference approach: –Monthly statistical data  reference approach (on a monthly basis Eurostat only receives supply side data) Sectoral approach (Tier 1): –Data provided by the consumers (industry, households, etc) –If good quality data, better and more realistic results –More data demanding and more difficult to implement –Annual statistics can be used for both approaches as they contain supply side data and consumption data from final consumers Tier 2/Tier 3 approach: detailed technology-based method

11. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 11 Early CO2 emission estimates Project "Production of early CO2 emission estimates from energy statistics" –Calculation of early CO2 emission estimates (4 to 5 months after the end of the reference year) using monthly cumulated energy data –Evaluation of a trend method to estimate early CO2 emissions –Project extended

12. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 12 Analysis of GHG Emission Trends DG CLIMA's project (JRC): –Objective: development of a method to systematically and quantitatively analyse the influence of the main emission drivers on emissions trends –Econometric approach –All GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, for EU27 & MS –Sectoral detail: –all sources (except LULUCF); –sources covered by the EU ETS) & other sources if possible –individual sectors (e.g. transport, power, buildings, manufacturing industry, chemical industry, agriculture…) Problem: (short) length of the time series

13. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 13 Industrial processes sector Reference approach for the industrial processes sector: –Study if PRODCOM database may serve as an alternative / complementary information source which would enforce the quality control and would provide a quality assured database –Explore if PRODCOM data can be used for gap-filling the EC inventory where no country estimate is available for a particular source category –Verification tool of the reported country data for QA/QC purposes. Problems: –Confidential data –Sales vs. production

14. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 14 MS1MS2MS3… EEA DG CLIMA UNFCCC Eurostat JRC Improve quality Harmonise Evaluate The EU GHG inventory system

15. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 15 MS1MS2MS3… EEA DG CLIMA UNFCCC Eurostat JRC Eurostat as user of inventory data

16. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 16 MS1MS2… EEA DG CLIMA UNFCCC JRC Eurostat as user of inventory data Eurostat MS3

17. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 17 Eurostat as user of inventory data Eurostat UNFCCC DG CLIMA JRC EEA MS1MS2… ONS1ONS2… Environmental Accounts National Accounts Economy

18. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 18 Air Emissions Accounts Reporting tables: –Air emissions by industry (NACE Rev. 2 – A*64): … Agriculture … Services … –Household air emissions: Transport Heating/cooling Other –Bridging items

19. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 19 Air emissions accounts Bridging items: Total air emission accounts (industry + households) Less national residents abroad – National fishing vessels operating abroad – Land transport – Water transport – Air transport Plus non-residents on the territory + Land transport + Water transport + Air transport (+ or –) Other adjustments and statistical discrepancies = Total emissions (pollutant X) reported to UNFCCC/CLRTAP

20. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 20 Residence vs. territorial principle ResidentsNon-Residents National Territory Emissions on national territory by resident units Emissions on national territory by non-resident units (foreign tourists, foreign transportation enterprises, foreign fishing vessels, embassies, etc.) Emission inventory Rest of the World Emissions by resident units operating abroad (tourists, transportation enterprises, fishing vessels, embassies, military operations, etc.) Air emissions accounts

21. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 21 Air Emissions Accounts Regulation No. 691/2011 Time series: –1995-2007: NACE Rev. 1.1 –2008 onwards: NACE Rev. 2 Connected with National Accounts (Supply and Use, Input- Output Tables) Modelling to obtain consumption approach: emissions embedded in imported goods consumed in EU –Other environmental extensions to SUIOT Change from NACE Rev. 1.1 to NACE Rev. 2: –Break of times series –Decrease in detail of economic activities relevant to environment (information lost)

22. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 22 Other work of Eurostat Other modules in Reg. 691/2011: –Environmental taxes (annex 1) –Material Flow Accounts (annex 3) To include in the future: –Environmental protection expenditure CEPA1: Protection of ambient air and climate (mitigation) –Environmental Goods and Services –Energy accounts –…

23. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 23 Environmentally-extended SUIO Ee-SUIOT framework incorporates DPSIR model at different stages: –Economic activity (e.g. output, GVA, employment) –Data on environmental pressures (GHG, other air pollutants) –Indicators –Responses (e.g. mitigation, adaptation, environmental taxes, changes of consumption patterns) Incorporate environment into the macro-economic and sustainable consumption and production policies

24. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 24 Improving synergies Eurostat UNFCCC DG CLIMA JRC EEA Env AgONS Environmental Accounts National Accounts Economy Env Ag

25. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 25 Improving synergies Eurostat UNFCCC DG CLIMA EEA Env AgONS EnvAg National level World level UNSD Data sources Data exchange Harmonisation Classifications Standards

26. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 26 Improving synergies Eurostat National level World level UNSD Data sources Data exchange Env Ag ONS EEA DG CLIMA UNFCCC Data exchange Harmonisation Policy question Data needs Classifications Standards

27. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 27 Summary EU GHG inventories (mostly) under responsibility of DG CLIMA, EEA and national Environmental Agencies Eurostat contributes with data (e.g. reference approach) Eurostat publishes data on Air Emissions Accounts (which address other policy questions and complement inventories) Environmental accounts link environmental pressures with economic activity and to responses Need to intensify links between two networks: –Statistical system –Environmental agencies Better align classifications of UNFCCC and ISIC (NACE) Important to understand what are the policy questions and data needs

28. 19-20 Nov 2012 Improving official statistics 28 Thank you… julio.cabeca@ec.europa.eu http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/environ mental_accounts/introduction