Lancashire overview Mike Walker Corporate Research and Intelligence Manager Policy Unit

Introduction The local economy Lancashire’s population Public opinion - the national and local view

Lancashire’s economy

Local Gross Value Added (GVA) Source: ONS - Local Gross Value Added, Index: 1995=100 Index

GVA share by industry group (at current basic prices) Source: ONS: Local Gross Value Added, 2006

Change in number of employee jobs Source: ONS - Annual Business Inquiry, 2007 Lancashire NUTS % Great Britain +9.2%

Median gross weekly earnings Source: ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, April 2008

Economic activity rates % economic activity varies by ethnicity, disability and gender Lancashire Average Source: ONS - Census of Population, 2001

Deprivation in Lancashire

Multiple deprivation – small areas 156 out of the 755 LSOAs in Lancashire are in the 20% most deprived in England (21% of total). Burnley, Pendle, Preston and Hyndburn have had an increase in the number of LSOAs in the most deprived 20% between IMD 2004 and IMD 2007.

Districts with the 20% most deprived LSOAs Source: ONS - The English Indices of Deprivation, 2007

Multiple deprivation – small areas most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Health domain most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England 235 Lancashire areas in 20% most deprived in England 355,000 people live in these areas (30% of county population) Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Crime domain most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England 103 Lancashire areas in 20% most deprived in England 158,000 people live in these areas (14% of county population) Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Employment deprivation domain most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England 187 Lancashire areas in 20% most deprived in England 90,500 people of working age are employment deprived (13% of county working age population) Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Education, skills and training deprivation most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England 152 Lancashire areas in 20% most deprived in England 235,000 people live in these areas (20% of county population) Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Living environment deprivation domain most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England 172 Lancashire areas in 20% most deprived in England 271,000 people live in these areas (23% of the county population) Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Barriers to housing and services domain most deprived 10% of England second most deprived 10% of England third most deprived 10% of England fourth most deprived 10% of England fifth most deprived 10% of England least deprived 50% of England 49 Lancashire areas in 20% most deprived in England 82,000 people live in these areas (7% of county population) Source: Indices of Deprivation 2007

Unfit dwellings Source: DCLG - Dwelling Stock by Tenure and Condition, April 2006 % % unfit dwellings

Fuel poverty Source: Centre for Sustainable Energy - Fuel Poverty Indicator website, 2003

Source: Office for National Statistics 2007/8 GCSE attainment in Lancashire

Lancashire’s health

Life expectancy at birth - males Source: Office for National Statistics - Life Expectancy at Birth

Life expectancy at birth - females Source: Office for National Statistics - Life Expectancy at Birth

Lancashire’s people

Population growth Between 2006 and 2031 Lancashire’s population (NUTS-2) projected to grow by 17% (England +19%) Source: Office for National Statistics +5% +7% +36% %

Population growth by district Population projections by district to 2031 vary from +32.9% to +3.5% Source: Office for National Statistics

Aged dependency ratio (2006 and 2031) Aged dependency ratio Ratio of 60+ population to population

Public opinion

Firstly, the national picture September 2007

Where are we now?  Vast sums spent on improving public services  A decade of reform to boost involvement and accountability  Surveys, user engagement, juries, workshops, consultation strategies, local area forums, ward sub-committees, safer neighbourhood panels  Empowerment plans, white papers, etc  But has public opinion changed…?

Strongly agree Don’t know Tend to disagree Neither Tend to agree Strongly disagree 27%63% Agree % % 55+64% ABC161% C2DE65% Two thirds agree ‘British society is broken’ To what extent do you agree or disagree that British society is broken? Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, September 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

% worse% better July 1998 May 2007 June 2008 QGenerally speaking do you think that Britain as a place to live is getting better or worse or is it staying the same? A terrible country?

Were things better in the good old days? People led happier lives in the old days when they had fewer problems to cope with; I would like Britain to be the way it used to be The Nostalgia factor % Strongly disagree% Tend to disagree% Tend to agree% Strongly agree Base: 2,019 British adults 15+, 9 May-5 June 2008, self-completion and online.

The things people can buy and do – their housing, furniture, food, cars, recreation and travel – make up their standard of living. How satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel about your standard of living at present? Although they are happy with their standard of living… Very satisfied Don’t know (*%) Fairly dissatisfied Neither Fairly satisfied Very dissatisfied 21%71% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 17 th -19 th April 2009

Economy is now the most important issue What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 978 British adults aged 18+, August 2009 Unemployment Economy Crime/law and order Inflation/prices Education/Schools Top mentions % NHS Race relations/immigration Defence/Foreign Affairs/ Terrorism Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Drug Abuse Morality/individual behaviour

Lancashire’s public

Factors that are important and local priorities for improvement Base: All respondents (16,604)

Factors that are important and local priorities for improvement Base: All respondents (16,604)

NI 5 – Satisfaction with local area Base: All respondents (16,604) Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local area as a place to live?

NI 5 – Satisfaction with local area Base: All respondents (16,604)

NI 5 – Local satisfaction vs IMD 2007 Source:

NI 5 – Local satisfaction vs IMD 2007 Source:

Community safety

Perceptions of safety How safe or unsafe do you feel when outside in your local area…? Feel safe 89% 51% Base: All respondents (16,604)

Perceptions of safety – after dark Base: All respondents (16,604)

Perceptions of safety – after dark Base: All respondents (16,604)

Anti-social behaviour factors vs BVPI % -10% -11% -1% +2% -1% 0% Base: All Lancashire respondents (16,604)

NI 17 (combined ASB) 2006 vs % -7% -14% -10% 0% +1% -16% +1% -14% -2% -8% -6% -14% vs BVPI 2006 Base: All Lancashire respondents (16,604)

NI 17 – Perceived ASB Base: All Lancashire respondents (16,604)

Perceived ASB vs reports of ASB Base: Place survey (all wards with more than 30 respondents); Multi-Agency Data Exchange

Local crime and ASB services How much would you agree or disagree that the police and other local public services…? Score 30% 29% Base: All respondents (16,604)

Community Cohesion

Get on well together? Sources: Place survey 2008 (16,604): Lancashire BVPI survey 2006 (1,678) How much do you agree or disagree that your local area is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together?

NI 1 – People from different backgrounds get along Base: All respondents excluding “don’t know”, “all same background” and “too few people” answers (10,929)

NI 1 – People from different backgrounds get along

NI 1 vs deprivation (by ward) Base: All respondents excluding “don’t know”, “all same background” and “too few people” answers (10,929)

NI 1 vs local satisfaction (by ward) Base: All respondents excluding “don’t know”, “all same background” and “too few people” answers (10,929)

The role of county councillors Base: 2,451 Lancashire residents aged 16+, 15-September – 16 December 2007 QWhich of the following do you think it is most important for your local county councillors to do? Listen to views of local people Deal with complaints/problems Work with local communities to improve services Keep informed about LCC activities Represent local views to bus/govt Review and plan local services Maintain ethical standards Scrutinise county council decisions Reflect backgrounds of local comm. Take decisions about LCC services N/A Net difference from 2003 (±%)

Conclusions

Conclusion The local economy is underperforming the regional and national trend. Importance of manufacturing. Concentration of central Lancashire growth. Places in severe deprivation. Links with other factors. Public improvement priorities are activities for teenagers, road maintenance and traffic congestion. Improving perception of community safety. Perception of community cohesion is steady.

Links Lancashire Profile: – Joint Strategic Needs Assessment – Multi-Agency Data Exchange – Public Opinion – – – (not yet live)