The Cold War from 1947 to 1989 Western and Eastern Blocs!! G. Kennan formulated Containment strategy the height of the Cold War 1970s-80s- several negotiations on arms control treaties The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (I and II)Strategic Arms Limitation Talks 2 Foreign policy choices: deter and contain

Deterrence “Deterrence” is a special form of reciprocity, based on the threat to punish another actor if it takes a negative action.

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) MAD is a doctrine based on a special form of deterrence in which it is believed that neither side in a conflict can afford to start a war as the other side will have sufficient capacity to retaliate (“second strike capability”), & destroy the state which launches the first attack.

Arms Race “a reciprocal process in which two (or more) states build-up their military capabilities in response to each other.”

13 days of Crisis between Soviet Union and United States Cold War nuclear tension October 1962 The medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles transported to Cuba and followed by nuclear warheads on 4 October 1962 (first time Soviets install missiles out of its territory)

Missiles were discovered by U-2 planes on 14 October Soviets did not started worrying about the American discovery of Missiles until 22 October (until the news bulletins upcoming Kennedy's address to the nation)

Why did Soviets deploy missiles in Cuba?: Four hypothesis Hypothesis 1:Cuban defence Hypothesis 2: Cold War politics Hypothesis 3: Missile Power Hypothesis 4: Berlin-win, trade, or trap

Why did the Soviet Union decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba? Why did the United States respond to the missile deployment with a Blockade ? Why did the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles?

Most reasonable explanations are missile power and Berlin hypothesis

Group Think ExComm Committee (Executive Committee of the Nations Security Council)-advise President Kennedy-diversity of ideas according to their job and backgrounds declassification of tapes and documents help to understand crisis Soviet decision making process still opaque-

Why American Blockade? The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) wanted an invasion Dean Dusk, Secretary of State wanted diplomatic – suggest o convince Castro to push Soviets out of Cuba. R. Mcnamara, Secretary of Defense, believed that missiles were political problem

Raised the idea of blockading future weapons shipments to Cuba- but not solving the issue of missiles already shipped to Cuba but warned Soviet not to use them. Other options: Narrow air strike against the missile sites only Air strike Invasion follow up the air strike

Robert Kennedy against any surprise attack which would be immoral (like Pearl Harbour) So Kennedy changed his idea from surprise attack to blockade Blockade-negotiate approach: following the blockade U.S would negotiate for the removal of missiles from Turkey and Italy and closing U.S base at Guantanamo in Cuba but this option was disagreed

Kennedy refused blockade-negotiation approach: it raised an idea that US had been frightened New solution: blockade and air strike ultimatum demanding removal of the missiles

And he choose blockade-ultimatum (any air strike would be limited to missiles) Advantages of blockade: middle course between inaction and attack, aggressive enough to communicate of intention but not as a strike, it gave responsibility/burden to Khrushchev of choice for the next step Blockade began on the morning of 24 October, 500 miles off the coast of Cuba and Soviet ships turned around before challenging quarantine

Why Soviet withdrawal of missiles from Cuba? Blockade did not change Khrushchev’s mind but threat of further action in the form of alternatives did it succeed for withdrawal of missiles

Why did the Soviet Union decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba? 1-Nikita Khrushchev’s aim to make nuclear balance and believe that US would not respond aggressively after the Bay o Pig fiasco 2-First time missiles installed outside of Soviet Union, lack of set of procedures in both side 3-Governmental problems in Soviet Union, lack of trust to Khrushchev (military and economy) so installation of missies in Cuba increase popularity of him and his policies

Why did the United States respond to the missile deployment with a Blockade ? 1-Blockade or air strike, risk of surgical air strikes by US Air Force so existing plans (routine behaviors) could create collateral damage during surgical air strike and possibility of escalation of war so US decided on blockade option 2-Kenndy choose blockade option to give next move to Khrushchev and something between action/inaction, not necessary lead nuclear war 3-Failure of Bay of Pig fiasco (result of misinformation of CIA) and expectation of strong and decisive response from Kennedy administration but lack of trust to CIA and Robert Kennedy's (Attorney General) insist on Blockade/result of bargaining between government agencies

Why did the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles? 1-Soviet leader cannot afford nuclear destruction, withdrawal was the only option for Soviet Union 2-US government decision not to bargain missiles in Cuba with missiles in Turkey but guarantee of not to invade Cuba and withdrawal of Jupiter missiles six months later leaded to Soviet withdrawal. 3- The Soviets simply did not have a plan to follow if the U.S. took decisive action against their missiles. Khrushchev's communications indicated a high degree of desperation. Without any back-up plan, the Soviets had to withdraw.