GIS BASED SEISMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATION FOR THE CITY OF KELOWNA Md. Nurul Alam Graduate Student Supervisors: Dr. Solomon Tesfamariam and Dr. M. Shahria Alam

2 Friday, September 09, 2011 at 12:41:34 PM ( Source : USGS) 6.4 Magnitude Quake Shakes Southwest B.C.

USGS PAGER - Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response Report Green Alert 3

Outline Background Methodology Outcome Conclusion & Future Directions 4

Effects of Earthquake in Haiti, January

Effects of Earthquake in Chile, February

Haiti Earthquake, January 2010 Chile Earthquake, February magnitude8.8-magnitude Casualty: 220,000 peopleCasualty: 521 people 7

8 “Know Risk, No Risk” International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

9 Seismic Damage Assessment for the City of Kelowna

Objective Development of a GIS-based Seismic Damage Assessment Tool with the help of RADIUS Implement a Case Study for the City of Kelowna 10

RADIUS Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters 11

Data Collection Data Inventory Engineering Analysis with RADIUS Approved Not Approved Generation of Seismic Damage Maps in GIS QueryGIS Modeling for Input Quality Inspection Proposed GIS based RADIUS Method 12

13 Simplified RADIUS Methodology ( After Nippon Koi and Oyo 2001) Scenario Earthquake Selection Soil Classification Seismic Hazard Data Inventory and Vulnerability Seismic Damage Estimation GIS Platform

What is GIS? Geographic Information System 14

GIS Implementation Process 15 Sources Analog2Digital Layering Design & Linking Output & Analysis

16 Scenario Earthquake Selection Soil Classification Seismic Hazard Data Inventory and Vulnerability Seismic Damage Estimation

17 Source: Natural Resources Canada

Selection of Probable Seismic Event Scenario 1: Mw = 6.5 underneath the City Scenario 2: Mw = 7.3 in Cascadia Subduction Zone 18

19 City: Kelowna Total Population Counts : Total Building Count : Earthquake NameScenario 1Scenario 2 Occurrence Time2 AM EQ Magnitude : EQ Direction Relative from Ref. Study Area North East EQ Distance(km) to Ref. Study Area 0271

20 Simplified RADIUS Methodology Scenario Earthquake Selection Soil Classification Seismic Hazard Data Inventory and Vulnerability Seismic Damage Estimation

21 Surface Ground Amplification for Different Soil/Rock types in RADIUS (After Nippon Koi and Oyo 2001)

Soil Classification 22 CodeDescriptionSPT N Value 0Unknown- 1Hard Rock>50 2Soft Rock Medium Soil Soft Soil<10

23 Scenario Earthquake Selection Soil Classification Seismic Hazard Data Inventory and Vulnerability Seismic Damage Estimation

24 Data Sources Secondary Data City of Kelowna Statistics Canada USGS Agriculture Canada UBC Vancouver Primary Data Survey through Google maps

25 Subject Water Network Digital Elevation Map (DEM), Contour Gravity Main lines with Materials Ladder lines with materials Pressurized main network Water Hydrant Locations Kelowna Lanes Kelowna Roads Kelowna Water Bodies City of Kelowna Boundary DPA_ Hazardous Condition maps DPA_ Natural Environment DPA_Wildfire 2006 census tract with dissemination area Kelowna Buildings with a very few information Existing Database

26 Compilation of Inventories in GIS

Compilation of Inventories in GIS (continued) 27

28 Basic Input for RADIUS Study Area with 4km × 4km grids

29 Simplified RADIUS Methodology Scenario Earthquake Selection Soil Classification Seismic Hazard Data Inventory and Vulnerability Seismic Damage Estimation

Mean damage factors (MDF) for major classes of buildings in Kelowna (After Onur et al. 2005) 30

Casualty Coefficient 31 After UNISDR 1999

Probable Damage 32

33 Distribution of MMI Scenario 1 : Mw = 6.5 underneath the City Distribution of Damaged Buildings (Count : 2374) Distribution of Casualties ( Casualty Count :161)

34 Life LineTotal CountDamage CountsUnitDamage Ratio(%) Road131520km6.26 Road248215km3.21 Bridge10Count11.71 Tunnels00Count1.83 Electric1351Count2.78 Electric241Site20.98 Water156013km2.35 Water251Site12.32 Water320Site7.29 Reservoir140Count6.79 Reservoir250Count4.79 Gasoline5611Count20.06 Scenario 1 : Damage to lifelines

35 Distribution of MMI Distribution of Building DamageDistribution of Injuries Scenario 2 : Mw =7.3 in Cascadia Subduction Zone

Acknowledgement NSERC City of Kelowna Professor Dwayne Tannant, UBC O Mr. Norm Williams, Interior Testing Services Ltd. Agriculture Canada Statistics Canada 36

Mr. Mo Bayat, Director, Development Services Department, The City of Kelowna Mr. John Vos,General Manager, Community Services Division, The City of Kelowna Mr. Darren Genge, GIS Technician, Policy & Planning, The City of Kelowna Mr. Taher Ahmed, RBO, The City of Kelowna 37 Acknowledgement

Wildfire Risk Assessment 38

39 Proposed Wild Fire Risk Assessment Methodology

40 Wildfire Risk

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43 Selected Risky Areas A8, C2, C3, C8, D6, D7 and E7

44 Outcome Events Cost Incurred ( USD) A8 GridC2 GridC3 GridC8 GridD7 GridE7 GridD6 Grid A B C D Priorities : C2>E7>A8>D7>D6 & C8>C3

45 Future Fire Station Location Selection

Contingency Planning 46

47 Goal & Main Tasks of the project…  To develop a comprehensive multi-hazard risk reduction “Contingency Planning” strategy that is linked to an easy implementation framework Overall Goal:  Task I: Determine status of existing contingency plans  Task II: Turn existing contingency plans into scenario-based contingency plans (using geo-hazard vulnerability map) Main Tasks:

48 Contingency Planning Framework Establish the Context in Relation to Potential Hazards Vulnerability Assessment & Loss Estimation Scenario Development (Scenario will be developed using RADIUS tool) Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk Develop Template for Contingency Plans to Address Needs and Suite Risk Scenarios Plan Development at City Level

49 Contingency Planning Framework Establish the Context in Relation to Potential Hazards Vulnerability Assessment & Loss Estimation Plan Development at Various Levels Scenario Development Low Risk, Moderate Risk, High Risk Develop Template for Contingency Plans to Address Needs and Suite Risk Scenarios Perform Review & Revision After Major Events or as needed Review Mandates for Various Levels & Sectors Extended Roles and Responsibilities of agencies Compare with existing and Gap analysis Training & Capacity Building Urban planning solutions Pre-positioning of facilities

W h o, W h a t, W h e r e 50 Coordination and Support Services Disaster Management Education Food Security Health / Health and Nutrition Infrastructure Livelihood Economic recovery Protection Shelter Water Hygiene and Sanitation Psycho social Early Recovery

References Public Safety Canada (PSC) Canadian Disaster Database. Public Safety Canada: Ottawa. UNISDR RADIUS: risk assessment tools for diagnosis of urban areas against seismic disasters. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat (UNISDR) from Castanet Okanagan Mountain Fire Watch. Accessed April, 2008 from 51

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Questions? 53