1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 27,

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 27, 2011 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, the accumulated dryness that was observed over much of India continues to spread eastward to Bangladesh, and parts of Thailand and Laos. Overall, during this period, south Asia is somewhat below normal and southeast Asia and eastern Australia is above normal.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is marked by a small pocket of negative anomaly over southeast China and large positive anomalies over eastern Australia and Philippines. Elsewhere, the 30 day precip amounts are near normal.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, normal to above normal rainfall fell over fell over much of southeast Asia and relatively normal to below normal rainfall over southern India and much of northern Australia. However, currently, tropical storm Thane in the Indian Ocean is expected to intensify to Cyclone 1 strength (Major hurricane cat 1 in the western hemisphere) and is heading towards southeast coast of India and is forecast to make a landfall in the next few days. However, the week1 GFS forecast does not show enhanced rainfall anomalies over southeast India.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation The CDAS circulation maps are a usually a couple of days behind, and today it is even older by a day, and hence do not reflect the latest tropical storm conditions in the Bay of Bengal. It is likely that the small cyclonic circulation in the northern Indian Ocean that is present in the weekly map developed in to Tropical Storm Thane.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary Over the last 90 days, the accumulated dryness that was observed over much of India continues to spread eastward to Bangladesh, and parts of Thailand and Laos. Overall, during this period, south Asia is somewhat below normal and southeast Asia and eastern Australia is above normal. The 30- day precipitation anomaly pattern is marked by a small pocket of negative anomaly over southeast China and large positive anomalies over eastern Australia and Philippines. Elsewhere, the 30 day precip amounts are near normal. This past week, normal to above normal rainfall fell over fell over much of southeast Asia and relatively normal to below normal rainfall over southern India and much of northern Australia. However, currently, tropical storm Thane in the Indian Ocean is expected to intensify to Cyclone 1 strength (Major hurricane cat 1 in the western hemisphere) and is heading towards southeast coast of India and is forecast to make a landfall there in the next few days. However, the week1 GFS forecast does not suggest enhanced rainfall anomalies over southeast India. Also the models forecast below normal rainfall in the upcoming couple of weeks to northern Australia, which has been having a good monsoon season so far.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology