1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 19,

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 19, 2011 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, the accumulated dryness that was observed over much of India continues to spread. Elsewhere positive anomalies are noted over parts of Indonesia, Philippines and sporadically all across Australian continent.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is marked by a small pocket of significant negative anomaly over southeast China and large positive anomalies over eastern Australia and Philippines.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, normal to below normal rainfall fell over the entire region, except for slightly above normal rainfall over eastern Australia. Even though it is a tropical storm, Washi brought large rainfall to Philippines, and devastating death and destruction to that islands nation.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation Low level anomalous cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Storm Washi that traveled east to across from near 145E across southern Philippines that brought tremendous rainfall and over 650 deaths to Philippines is noted over the region. The troughing activity associated with the rainfall in west central Australia is also seen in the circulation map.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary Over the last 90 days, the accumulated dryness that was observed over much of India continues to spread. Elsewhere positive anomalies are noted over parts of Indonesia, Philippines and sporadically all across Australian continent. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is marked by a small pocket of significant negative anomaly over southeast China and large positive anomalies over eastern Australia and Philippines. This past week, normal to below normal rainfall fell over the entire region, except for slightly above normal rainfall over eastern Australia. Even though it is a tropical storm, Washi brought large rainfall to Philippines, and devastating death and destruction to that islands nation. Low level anomalous cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Storm Washi that traveled east to across from near 145E across southern Philippines that brought tremendous rainfall and over 650 deaths to Philippines is noted over the region. The troughing activity associated with the rainfall in west central Australia is also seen in the circulation map. The NCEP GFS model is predicting slightly above normal rainfall over much of southern Malyasia, Indonesia and northern Australia.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology