India project not used

Summary: Areas of Potential Cooperation to Realize Sinks Potential Perform pilot project analyses: issues. Stimulate development of standard methods & guidance for US and developing country offsets. Improve models to handle socioeconomic and technical issues. Dialog on potential activities & issues with stakeholders. Assess rural livelihood, biodiversity effects. Assist key countries in assessing international offsets opportunities, barriers, institutional arrangements.

General, Evolving Steps for Quantifying LULUCF Project GHG Benefits 1 Establish Baseline Without Project. Access data, tools for candidate area and activities. (Assumes future data sets available in ~2 years). Identify appropriate spatial and temporal boundaries: for without-project baseline and project. Quantify probability of current land use changing without project: by activity and location. Estimate the initial C stock without project and project changes in it.

DRAFT: Steps for Quantifying LULUCF Project GHG Benefits 2 Identify and Assess the Project Case: Identify project activities and location. Determine the relative additionality of proposed project activities: land use drivers and policies. Estimate change in C stock with project. 1

DRAFT: Steps for Quantifying LULUCF Project GHG Benefits 3 Address GHG accounting issues: leakage, duration, etc. in Project Case. Determine likelihood of leakage, and select estimated leakage factor. Adjust accounting for duration, saturation, policies, other factors. 4 Develop monitoring, verification, reporting approaches 5 Adjust Baseline and Project Cases, if Changes Occur over Time.

Baselines: Conceptual Framework Source: IPCC LUCF SR, 2000 presentations

Option: Spatial Approach to Baseline Setting, Projections, & Emissions Can identify 3-4 predisposing or driving factors: roads, population change, land tenure. Regional resolution: can establish subregions to provide finer resolution and higher predictiveness. Factors set baseline by activity & location, & estimate future land use change and emissions. Spatial approach allows: much finer baseline resolution than tablular approaches (activity, location, tenure), & model verification with historic data.

Leakage [[ cut this?? ]] Leakage may be quantified by –Monitoring key indicators of leakage, e.g., timber or agricultural output, movement of dwellers –Using standard risk coefficients that are specific to type of project and region Leakage may be offset by –Creating buffer zones as in the PAP project in Costa Rica –Reducing the estimated carbon benefits as in the Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) Project in Malaysia.