Space Weather Canada: Addressing user needs LarisaTrichtchenko (NRCan) and Ian R. Mann (U. Alberta)

2 Addressing the space weather risks and customer needs : a Canadian perspective Space weather can affect a variety of technologies:  Geomagnetic effects on power systems and other ground infrastructure  Ionospheric effects on radio communications and GNSS  Space environment effects on satellites Space weather impacts depend on the location on Earth and in space:  More intense at high latitudes (above 55 degrees)  More frequent at high latitudes (above 55 degrees)  More intense in radiation belts Canada is located at high latitudes and, thus, its technology infrastructure is exposed to space weather effects. Note: Space weather impacts can be strong at lower latitude locations during significant space weather events (High Impact Low Frequency, HILF, events) :

Several Government Departments are dealing with Space Weather (SW):  National Research Council (NRC)-monitoring the Sun, operational provision of F10.7 solar activity index  Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)-monitoring (geomagnetic field, ionospheric disturbances, GIC and telluric currents), research (from the Sun to the Earth), wide range of operational services (Space Weather Forecast Centre)  Canadian Space Agency (CSA)-support of several research facilities for monitoring and scientific developments (University research), engineering and operational support of space missions.  Government (emergency) Operation Centre (GOC)-distribution of the Space Weather Bulletins and other alerts received from CSWFC among other government and industrial sectors 3 SW in Canada: Monitoring, Research, Development and Operations

4 SW in Canada: Monitoring Examples of operational and proto-operational monitoring facilities Solar: NRC radio telescopeGeomagnetic, NRCan Ionosphere: NRCan (polar), U of Calgary (CSA support) F10.7 index since 1947, International and national services, Examples: solar cycle progression, multiple atmospheric and sat environment models The first obs. opened in1839, International and national services Examples: Kp index (3 obs), Ae index (several), local SW activity and forecast. Dedicated services for power grids, pipelines and others Riometers, monitoring D- region ionosphere, under development. Possible international and national services Examples: NRCan polar cap absorption monitoring and alerts and others

Geospace Observatory (GO) Canada

Space Measurements from the Ground Riometer Absorption SuperDARN plasma velocity GPS scintillation GPS Satellite ( km alt) D E F CADI ionosphere layers altitudes VLF receivers Imagers Auroral Dynamics Mags ULF Waves, GICs

7 SW in Canada: Research and Development Examples of NRCan user-driven research to operations Ground: Real-time alerts via NRCan’s forecast services and (GIC) simulators for several power grids. Incorporating geomagnetic hazard assessment into pipeline design. On-line service for pipeline close-interval surveys. Ionosphere: Real-time monitoring of the polar cap and auroral absorption (under development) Real-time monitoring of HF propagation (project with Leicester University) Sun, solar wind: Assessment of different types of models and their applicability for the real-time forecasting. Development of advanced forecast based on sun and solar wind models.

E-POP Space Weather Applications: - Transient plasma density gradients (affect HF/GPS radio propagation) - Neutral upwelling and drag (which affect orbits of LEO satellites) CSA CASSIOPE/e-POP Small Satellite 3 Enhanced-Polar Outflow Probe (e-POP) Science: Plasma outflow, neutral upwelling, aurora, radio propagation, related space weather effects in ionosphere h ttp://epop.phys.ucalgary.ca

Swarm Electric Field Instruments Launched 22 nd Nov, 2013; ~88  inclination, 2 satellites altitude ~450 km (10s km apart), 1 at ~530 km (several hrs local time away)

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. Canada plays a significant instrument role in THEMIS Ground- based Observatory Network in support of in-situ mission. NASA-CSA THEMIS mission

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. International priority: IAGA Policy (2009) Resolves that: “member nations of IAGA co- operate and collaborate to the maximum extent possible in their pursuit of observational and modelling programs for radiation belt studies.” In-situ missions, such as : –NASA Van Allen Probes (2012). –Russian RESONANCE (2016) –Japanese ERG (2016) Exploiting ground-satellite conjunctions key for understanding wave-particle acceleration and loss processes. Represents niche Canadian role. Radiation Belt Missions

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) –Significant importance for understanding the underlying physics and triggering (timing and location) of substorm onset dB/dt. Radiation Belt Enhancement –Radiation belt acceleration,transport and loss critical. Multiple processes concurrently. Which dominate behaviour? Real-time model? Example Science Research Results with Applied Impact

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. GIC: Ignition of Substorm Onset? Angelopoulos et al., Science, 2008.

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. New ULF wave driven science model – driven by either solar wind or geomagnetic index (real time capacity). Outer BC can be specified by GEO observations (real time capacity). Radiation Belt Forecasting Ozeke et al., GRL, 2014.

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. Mann et al. In preparation 2015.

Space Weather Experts Meeting, on margins COPUOS STSC, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 3 rd 2015.Ian R. Mann. Proposed mission focussing upon 24/7 polar communications and weather capacity. Reflects Canadian challenges and interests as a country operating in a changing polar north, including maintaining sovereignty and security. Includes space weather payload as primary payload, reflecting its importance. Mission still under study; if approved mission development may begin in Proposed Canadian Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) Mission

17 Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre NRCan Canadian Hazards Information Service Government Operations Centre Critical Infrastructure Operators SW in Canada: Operations Space Weather Forecasting and dedicated services

18 ICELAND RADIO REYKJAVIK, ICELAND August 9, 2006 Dear Mr. Newitt: I just want to remark on how well your spaceweather information assists us in making HF radio propagation evaluations. We are very interested in your assessments of the Polar area. This is the most difficult area to obtain real time evaluation of current and forecasted HF radio propagation events. We are a ICAO aeronautical ground station that requires HF communications with aircraft flying via polar routes. Following your magnetic activity review and forecast text page, we find that it does follow in real time the HF radio conditions that we here in Iceland experience. This applies especially to the polar regions and our tracks due west and northwest over Greenland and into Canada. I would think that Artic Radio and Gander Radio would be using your services as well. When I do my daily Propagation report I compile about five different sources such as SEC, ARPC & etc. I always find your information closest to what I need to make the report. I do not forecast anything but just put together something the Radio Officers can use. Keep up the good results and and you will always find us making hits on your URL´s Sincerely, Jonas Thor Arthursson Communications Specialist Iceland Radio When I do my daily Propagation report I compile about five different sources such as SEC, ARPC & etc. I always find your information closest to what I need to make the report. SW in Canada and beyond: Unsolicited user responses