1. Annual Interagency Weather Research Review and Coordination Meeting Aviation related Space Weather product verification December, 2010 Rodney Viereck Research Director, Space Weather Prediction Test-bed Director NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Space Weather Prediction Center

2. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Brief overview of space weather D-Region Absorption Product (D-RAP) Product Description Recent Improvements Product Validation

3. It was formed in 1946 as the Radio Propagation Lab Currently the Space Weather Prediction Center is… – …one of the nine Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) – …within the National Weather Service (NWS) Today it has a bout 70 people – Forecast Center: Forecasters on duty 24/7 providing alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms – Applied Research: Solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere – Development: Transitioning new models and products to operations,

4. Aviation Polar route use – ~9,000 flights in 2009 Next Generation Air Transportation System – GPS based HF com, radio navigation, human radiation. GPS Single biggest source of error is ionosphere Strong growth in applications – surveying, drilling, precision agriculture, navigation, aviation Electric Utilities Potential for significant disruption of service due to geomagnetic storm with $Trillion consequences FEMA addressing potential impacts related to space weather events through simulated exercise Space Systems World satellite industry revenues in 2008: >$144 billion Space weather support is critical for manned space flight and robotic missions

5. Solar Maximum Service begins SES SatelliteInmarsatFederal Emergency Management Admin. Schlumberger Drilling US Federal Aviation Administration North America Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) L-3 Communications Florida Division of Emergency Mgnt. British Petroleum America Bonneville Power Administration Washington St. Dept of Transportation Caterpillar, Inc.Alaskan AirlinesUnited Launch Alliance Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Stations Example of Registrants in 2009

7. 1. Solar Flare – Solar Flares send out x- rays – Arrive at Earth in 8 minutes – Modify the ionosphere – Disrupt HF radio communication – Impacts: Airline communication HF radio operators DoD Communications Satellite Communications 2.Radiation Storms –Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Energetic Particles –Arrive at Earth in 15 minutes to 24 hours –Modify the high latitude ionosphere –Disrupt HF radio communication –Impacts: Airline communication HF radio operators DoD Communications –Ionizing radiation penetrates into the atmosphere –Impacts: Astronauts (radiation) Satellite failures 3.Geomagnetic Storms –Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Magnetic Clouds –Arrive at Earth in 1-4 days –Accelerate particles within the magnetosphere and into the ionosphere –Impacts: HF radio communication Radio Navigation (GPS) Electric Power Grids Increased Satellite Drag Aurora

8. Large space weather storms start with an x-ray flare – X-rays photons travel at the speed of light and arrive in 8 minutes Followed by energetic protons – Guided by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and traveling slower than the speed of light, they arrive in 30 minutes to 24 hours Both x-rays and protons penetrate to about 100 km altitude and ionize the atoms and molecules of the upper atmosphere Solar Protons Solar X-Rays Arrive in 8 min. Solar Protons Arrive in 30 min to 24 hours Solar Flare

9. Flare or proton enhanced ionospheric D-region absorbs HF radio waves – X-rays and protons penetrate to about 100 km where they collide with neutral atoms and molecules and ionize them producing free electrons. These electrons produce an enhanced layer Normal Ionosphere reflects HF radio waves – Layers in the ionosphere reflect and absorb radio waves depending on the frequency of the radio transmission and the density of the electrons Low Frequency Signal is Absorbed Medium Frequency Signal normally reflected High Frequency Signal is Transmitted

10. Provides airlines and dispatchers with a map indicating where HF communication are compromised by space weather. – Real-time current conditions – Driven by GOES x-ray data and energetic particle data and ground magnetometer data Cartesian Map of the World Polar Projection

11. Image from NASA SOHO Satellite X-Ray Impacts on Communication Loss of High Frequency (HF) communications during a solar flare, sunlit side of Earth only GOES SXI GOES XRS

12. San Francisco Air Traffic Communications Center NOAA Radio Absorption Plot

13. Solar Flare Radio Blackouts will impact lower latitudes but affects lessen towards higher latitudes. There can be many large flares lasting several hours over the course of many days Solar flare events in progress 12 Days of solar flares

14. Proton event in progress with little solar flaring Solar Proton Events (Radiation Storms) cause extended periods (hours to days) of HF comm blackouts at higher latitudes.

15. HF Communication only Airlines and the Polar Routes Flights rely on HF (3 – 30 MHz) communication all the time but inside the 82 degree circle, there is no alternative. Federal Aviation Regulation Sec. 121.99 – aircraft must have two-way radio communication over the entire route with dispatch office and air traffic control. Airlines will re-route flights away from polar routes during radiation and geomagnetic storms at a cost that can exceed $100,000 per flight.

16. Solar Flare Radio Blackouts and Solar Proton Radiation Storms can occur at the same time and cause widespread disruptions to communications.

17. Riometers – Passively record background galactic radio noise at 30MHz. – Provide a measure of ionopsheric absorption Issues – Measurement at one frequency – Spatial coverage is limited to land Existing Planned

18. Period 1 at Thule. Period 2 at Thule. Thule generally exhibits good performance but during some periods the model overestimates absorption substantially. Courtesy of Rashid Akmaev, NOAA SWPC

19. Period 10 at Taloyoak. Period 10 at Rovaniemi. In the European sector absorption is often substantially underestimated by the model. Courtesy of Rashid Akmaev, NOAA SWPC

20. Canada’s Space Weather Forecast Centre is constructing a network of HF transmitters/receivers to mimic airline communication. They expect a real-time service, funded by the Canadian Space Agency. – Transmitter at Alert. – Receivers to be put in: Leicester, Ottawa, Churchill, Iqaluit, Cambridge Ban, Resolute, Longyearbyen, Nurmijarvi. Courtesy of David Botler, Canadian Space Weather Forecast Center

21. Best validation would be pilot reports – Logging of radio frequency and contacts – Logging of broken contacts

22. D-RAP product has been upgraded and improved by adding protons – Provides better support for high latitudes – Critical for polar flights Realtime Validation of D-RAP is still in planning phase – Requires dedicated real-time data sources – Requires international negotiations Pilot communication verification would be the best.

23. Ionosonds: – Probe the ionosphere at various frequencies – Provide a profile of the lower layers of the ionosphere Issues: – Not a true measure of absorption – Difficult to analyze the data – More difficult to automate a validation process. Global Network of Ionosondes