Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Key Idea: Countries pass through different stages of population growth as shown in the five stages of the Demographic Transition Model (birth rate, death rate and natural population changes). Changing population structure. Key Words: Natural Increase, Natural Decrease, Infant Mortality, Birth Rate, Death Rate

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Stage 1 High birth and death rates = low overall population. Slow or stable natural increase Death rate high due to disease, famine, war and high infant mortality rate. Birth rate high due to high infant mortality, no birth control, social/religious encouragement for large families, children needed for work and farming. UK pre-1780 A few remote tribes in 2012.

Stage 2 High birth rate with rapidly falling death rate. Very rapid natural increase. Birth rate still high due to need for children for work, religious/social pressure and no family planning. People still used to the idea of high infant mortality. Death rate falls due to improved medical care, clean water and improved sanitation. Infant mortality falls. UK between Afghanistan in 2012.

Stage 3 Falling birth rate, with a slowly falling death rate. Natural increase slows. People have realised infant mortality rate has dropped, children not needed for work, children become a ‘cost’. Improved medical care, water supply and sanitation keeps death rate low. UK LEDCs (India, Kenya, Brazil) in 2012.

Stage 4 Low birth rate and low death rate – leading to stable natural increase. Birth rate low because of birth control, good heath, improved status of women, later marriages and economic benefits of having small families. Death rate low due to good health care and reliable food supply. UK post 1940 – countries like USA, Japan, France

Stage 5 Very low birth rate below the death rate. Death rate slightly increased due to aging population. Slow decrease in total population. Birth rate below replacement level (birth rate high enough for a generation to be the same size as the one before it). Germany, Italy, Japan in 2012 due to career opportunities for women leading them to be childless or postpone motherhood. Eastern Europe in 2012 due to economic uncertainty putting people off having children.

Factors Affecting Population Growth Agricultural Change Increase in technology = less workers needed = workers go to industry = early industry requires high # of workers = later industry uses technology so = less workers. Rural to Urban Migration Cities = greater opportunities. Child labour less important in cities. Education Education seen as ‘best chance in life’ so children put into education. Children therefore cost money rather than making it. Emancipation and the status of women Good standard of living requires two incomes. Equality increases so women hold more senior positions; women choose to have no children or have children later (1 in 5 have none; compared to 1 in 10).

Make a large copy of diagram A on page 173. Using the sheets around the room, complete the summary sheet for each of the 5 stages. For each of the statements below, put them on the DTM and explain what they change (BR, DR, TP), how they change it and why: Billy White loses his job as a gravedigger Parents are now able to plan how many children they will have. Children share one bedroom with their brothers and sisters. There are more wedding anniversaries for couples married for 50 years. A mother cries at the grave of her sixth child who has died of Cholera. A lot more houses are built. Not many grandparents alive. Fewer children have to share a bedroom. Politicians worry about the ‘grey’ vote. The immigration of skilled workers is encouraged.