1. Explaining the
DTM

2. Flashback
Cast your mind back to GCSE Geography. What can you remember about the Demographic Transition Model?
Working in pairs you have 5 minutes to draw the DTM and as many appropriate labels as you can.

3. How did you do?

4. Learning Objectives What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
To what extent is the DTM valid and what are it’s limitations?

5. What is the DTM?
The Demographic Transition Model is a based on Warren Thompson’s theory of demographic transition, or population change. Thompson was a Malthusian who believed that population growth causes problems.
He argued that population, food supply and economic development are all linked, and that changes in one will bring about changes in the others.
Thomson developed a classification system, grouping countries into categories based upon their vital rates
Group C = Poor, Group B = Industrialising, Group A = Wealthy.
Thompson assumed that as countries industrialised they would progress from Group C to Group A over four stages.

6. The DTM is based on Thompson’s theory.
It is a geographical model which describes how the population of a country changes over time as a country passes through different stages of economic development.

7. Initially there were 4 stages, but a 5th stage has recently been added to represent development from a pre-industrialised to an industrialised economy.
ticking sound
The DTM shows how changes in the Birth Rate (per 1000) and Death Rate (per 1000) impact upon the Total Population

8. Lets take a closer look!

21. High Fluctuating
Actually the reality is a little more complex. The birth rates and death rates fluctuate around 35 per 1000 in this stage,
Low population growth
Limited birth control / family planning.
High IMR encourages high BR – children a source of income / insurance in old age.
Children a sign of fertility. Some religions encourage large families.

23. The Death rate drops to around 20 per 1000
Death rate falls due tom improvements in public health / sanitation, better nutrition etc. Improved medical; care increases life exp, reduces IMR
The result is rapid population growth

25. Early Expanding
Cultural / religious reasons

27. DR is approx 12 per 1000

29. BR approx 16 per 1000. Population continues to grow at a slower rate
Late Expanding
BR approx 16 per Population continues to grow at a slower rate

31. DR is 10 – 12 per 1000 and fluctuates slightly

33. Low fluctuating
BR 12 – 16 per Population growth is steady with slight fluctuations

37. Decline
2 groups of countries have entered this stage since the mid 1990s: Central and eastern Europe where BR has fallen below replacement level. S Africa where Aids has increased the death rate (stage 1?)

39. Natural Increase
Peru, Sri Lanka UK
Natural Decrease
Canada, USA
UK post 1940
Rainforest tribes
UK pre 1760
China, Cuba UK
Hungary, Japan
UK?

40. Task: Describing the DTM
You have been given an outline of the Demographic Transition Model and a number of statements.
Add the appropriate stages to your diagram (Declining, Early expanding / High fluctuating / Low fluctuating / Late expanding)
Complete the diagram by adding the labels (Birth Rate, Death Rate, Total Population, Natural Increase and Natural Decrease)
Cut out the statements and stick them under the correct stage of the DTM.

41. Changes in Population Characteristics / Demographic Transition Model
Background reading
Read pages 146–157
Changes in Population Characteristics / Demographic Transition Model

42. Learning Objectives What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
To what extent is the DTM valid and what are it’s limitations?