UK Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures Erik Millstone SPRU – University of Sussex

Professor John Beddington’s ‘Perfect Storm’ hypothesis: A Foresight perspective June 2009

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Climate Change Key questions to 2030 * *Slide reproduced from ‘The Perfect Storm?’ presentation by Professor John Beddington, June 2009

Foresight Project: Food and Farming Future How can a global population of 9 billion people all be fed healthily and sustainably? Looks forward to 2050 Includes the whole food system Terrestrial and aquatic food Sustainability issues very important Global outlook

John Beddington asked: Can future populations be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? Can we cope with future demands on water? Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? Can we do this whilst mitigating and adapting to climate change? How does science and engineering help in preventing and adapting to this ‘perfect storm’ scenario?

In this project food security is defined as: sufficiency, safety, sustainability and equity, at a time of rapid economic, social and environmental and technological change.

Project overview Phase 2: How to Address 5 Key Challenges Phase 1: Defining Challenge Phase 3: Report Production December 2008October 2010

Phase 1 activities Food system today Projected demand for food Projected supply of food Population trends Consumption Economics & Modelling Second Meeting Oct Governance Globalisation 1.Data initiative 2.Modelling Agricultural investment Livestock production State of play data gathering Energy and carbon policy Climate change impact Agriculture & ecosystem services Competition for land Water Horizon Scanning Meeting Oct Aqua Meeting Crop production Marine capture Inland fisheries Aquaculture Urbanisation Food chain Workshop Sept Income distribution Price volatility Post harvest 100 Questions Meeting Modelling review Waste

5 Key Challenges in Phase 2 1: Sustainably Feeding the World 2: Reducing Volatility 3: Ending Hunger 4: Low Carbon Economy 5: Ecosystem services & Biodiversity + a cross-cutting analysis

Phase 2 activities Key Challenge 1: Sustainably Feeding the World Social Structure of Food Production- who is farming/ fishing now Modifying Crops and agronomic practice Specialisation v self sufficiency Societal attitudes to different food production models Advances in Weed Management Integrated Soil Management Advances in Plant Disease and Pest Management Biotechnology in Aquaculture Biotechnology in Livestock Biotechnology in Crops Modern Aquaculture New Directions in Management of Capture Fisheries Arid Agriculture an developing and Developed Countries New and Neglected Species Advances in Animal Disease Management Education, training food producers, extension Reducing post harvest loss Novel Foods for Humans and Animals Urban and Peri-Urban Food Production incl Aquatic

Phase 2 activities Key Challenge 2: Reducing Volatility Interplay of Food and Political stability and conflict, transboundary issues, effects of political system, equality and ethnicity. Macroeconomic Financial risk management for farmers/ fishermen Understanding and reducing food price volatility Advanced short to medium term weather forecasting and link to farmer support systems

Phase 2 activities Key Challenge 3: Ending Hunger Helping Farming Communities; provision of transport, water and energy infrastructure, access to markets Developing National Food Security Strategies Helping the Individual: better education, extension services, access to seeds, microfinance, land rights etc. Technological innovation to address the needs of developing countries The international dimension: aid policy Statistical Analysis of and methods of monitoring hunger and its chronic effects on health

Phase 2 activities Key Challenge 4: Low Carbon Economy Competition for land from biofuels, effects of transition from first to second generation biofuels, duel use crops Fertiliser production in a low carbon world What incentive mechanisms might be used to reduce green house gas emissions in the food system Where are the best opportunities for reducing green house gas emissions in the food system

Phase 2 activities Key Challenge 5: Ecosystem services & Biodiversity How to preserve biodiversity while producing more Eco system services and sustainable agriculture / aquaculture strategies Reducing inputs possible trade-offs between production and sustainability Climate change and the loss and gain of marine fisheries Valuation of ecosystem services

Phase 2 activities Cross Cutting Ethics and the food system Reducing waste in the food chain from producer through consumer Understanding human decision making in the food chain from farmer/ fisher to consumer Additional review of productivity in Eastern Europe Incentivising change for the better in the food system How will the private sector food system respond to likely changes in the world economy Intellectual property and power in the private sector. IP rules to incentivise innovation Children in the food system; their special needs and position as consumers Modelling the food system How modern communicatio n and information systems will affect the food system How should research in agriculture, fisheries and the food system be funded? Gender in the food system; the critical role of women, especially on developing countries; how to improve and not damage the role of women

Regional studies Brazil Agriculture, food prices, pressure on environment UK (in Europe) Sustainable production potential Nile catchment Developing countries, transnational water issues India Consumption trends, culturally diverse China High production growth, high investment in research Mekong Delta Inland fish production

In October 2009, the Royal Society introduced the concept of ‘sustainable intensification’ which may well re-emerge in the conclusions of the Foresight project. See: