District heating year (updated )

Market share of space heating Residential, commercial and public buildings

Temperature corrected district heat demand, TWh

District heat demand

District heat production ,0 TWh Cogenerated electricity 11,8 TWh

District heat production and the share of cogenerated heat

Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP fuel consumption 52,0 TWh Renewables 33 % Carbon dioxide free 36 % Domestic 56 %

Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP

Domestic renewable energy sources in production of district heat and CHP

Sources: Statistics Finland ( ) Finnish Energy Industries ( , 2015) Specific carbon dioxide emissions from district heat production

District cooling – delivered energy and connected heat load

The future of the district heating sector

Demand and market share of district heat Market share of district heat 45% Demand for district heat 36 TWh (temperature-corrected demand) 2025 Market share of district heat 50–75% in new construction 2011–2025 Demand for district heat 40–42 TWh Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja ‒ jäähdytys Suomessa 2010–2025, VTT

Production capacity of district heat - role of CHP 2010–2025 New heat production capacity 1,500 MW needed –of which new additional heat capacity 500 MW, the rest 1,000 MW substitutes existing heat capacity new CHP heat capacity 0-1,000 MW new CHP electricity capacity 0–500 MW If the max. number of CHP plants is realised –additional heat production 4 TWh, electricity production 2 TWh –savings in primary energy 14 ‒ 27% (note! part of the additional production will substitute existing CHP production) Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja –jäähdytys Suomessa 2010 – 2025, VTT

Building stock in Finland Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja –jäähdytys Suomessa 2010–2025, VTT The most of the building stock is built after year 1970 –energy efficiency of construction has been steered since 1970’s -> the existing Finnish building stock is relatively energy efficient The new construction rate is 1.5%, the demolition rate ca. 1%

Building stock in Finland Detached houses Terraced houses Apartment buildings Office and public buildings Industrial buildings Total Urbanised municipalities 51%67%90%72%65%68% Densely populated municipalities 24%17%7%14%19%16% Rural municipalities 25%16%3%14%15%16% Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja –jäähdytys Suomessa 2010–2025, VTT The most of the building stock is situated in urbanised (68%) and densely populated (16%) municipalities The urbanization has created new construction in population centres –the floor space increased by 55% in population centres during years The district heating market is situated in urbanised and densely populated municipalities

Share of district heat in the floor area of buildings according to area density in built-up areas covered by town plan Area density = floor area of buildings divided by land area

Area density has a clear connection to the district heat market share Districts of apartment buildings: area density is more than 0.15 –district heat has a market share over 80% in new construction Districts of densely built one-family houses: area density is 0.10 – 0.15 –district heat has a market share of 65% – 80% Only in the capital city Helsinki the area density is more than 0.3 –in the centres of cities Turku, Tampere and Kuopio the average area density is 0.15 There are more than 250 separate population centres which have districts (250 m x 250 m statistical grids) with area density over 0.1 New construction during 2010 – 2015 will be situated in districts which already now have district heating networks and high market share of district heating Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja –jäähdytys Suomessa 2010 – 2025, VTT

Cooling demand and the market share of district cooling year 2014 The cooling demand was GWh year 2014 The district cooling demand was 190 GWh –the demand of district cooling has more than doubled between years 2010 and 2014 –more than half of district cooling was produced with heat pumps, one fourth with free cooling The market share of district cooling was ca. 14% Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja –jäähdytys Suomessa 2010 – 2025, VTT

Scenario of the need for cooling energy (the BAU scenario) Source: Rakennusten jäähdytysmarkkinat, VTT 2015 The cooling demand due to outdoor temperature is small related to solar induced and internal (e.g. people, electrical appliances, lightning) thermal loads The cooling need can significantly be reduced by solar protection The most realistic estimation (BAU) is partial solar protection where –all one family houses have wide solar protection –half of the bigger buildings have wide solar protection 20

Cooling demand and the market share of district cooling 2030 Cooling density (cooling demand kWh divided by built land area ) –Helsinki 1.65 kWh/m 2 –Espoo, Vantaa, Tampere, Turku, Jyväskylä, Lahti, Kuopio, Oulu ~0.6 kWh/m 2 Cooling demand estimation ca GWh year 2030 The potential market of district cooling –increase ca. 20 GWh/year –market share would reach ca. 25% by year 2030 Cooling solutions to individual buildings outside district cooling areas offer new business areas for district heating companies Source: Tehokas CHP, kaukolämpö ja –jäähdytys Suomessa 2010 – 2025, VTT