1 National Labor and Management Conference 2016 Intercontinental Real Estate Corporation 1270 Soldiers Field Road Boston, MA 02135-1003 Tel: 617.782.2600.

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Presentation transcript:

1 National Labor and Management Conference 2016 Intercontinental Real Estate Corporation 1270 Soldiers Field Road Boston, MA Tel: Fax:

Paul Nasser, CFO & COO 1. Current Market Conditions & What Lies Ahead 2. Why and How to Invest in Real Estate

Private Real Estate “Current Market Conditions & What Lies Ahead”

Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Occupancies have improved substantially and rents have stabilized or are increasing in most markets. Limited construction of new buildings over the last several years has supported the recovery and will continue to do so in the next few years. Office and industrial markets have improved significantly. Retail recovery is further behind. Multifamily is starting to cool in some markets after historic renter demand over the last few years as the housing market restructured.

Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates *Equilibrium Rate is the rate which approximates a balanced leasing market in which neither landlords nor tenants hold more negotiating power. Vacancy below this rate generally implies a “landlord’s market” and vacancy above this rate implies a “tenant’s market”. Source: CBRE-EA 2015 Q4 Peak of Great Recession Equilibrium Rate Office13.1%16.8%13 to 15% Industrial9.4%14.6%9 to 10% Retail11.2%13.0%9 to 10% Multifamily4.5%7.4%5 to 6%

The Outlook for Rent Growth Average Annual Rate of Growth Source: CBRE-EA Last 5 yearsNext 5 yearsPrevious peakPeak year Office3.6%3.8%11.2%2000 Industrial2.5%3.7%7.4%1999 Retail-0.1%4.5%5.1%1999 Multifamily4.4%1.8%6.7%2000

Rent Growth Market Forecast Source: CBRE-EA PROPERTY TYPEFAVORED MARKETS Office St Louis, Columbus, Las Vegas, San Jose, Philadelphia, Chicago, Indianapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, Phoenix Industrial San Jose, Cincinnati, Riverside, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Fort Worth, Atlanta, Chicago, Tucson Multifamily Las Vegas, Phoenix, Fort Worth, Atlanta, Richmond, San Jose, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Charlotte, Orange County Retail Denver, Las Vegas, Atlanta, San Francisco, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Dallas, Oakland, Salt Lake City, Riverside

Today’s Property Type Outlook Property TypeRecommendation OfficeStrong Buy IndustrialBuy MultifamilyBuy RetailNeutral

History of Capitalization Rates Sources: NCREIF, Real Capital Analytics, Intercontinental

Recent Cap Rate Movement Source: Real Capital Analytics Property Type Low Cap Rate Avg. Pre- Recession Cap Rate Avg. at Peak of Recession (Q4 2009) Q Cap Rate Average BPS Increase from Low to Peak (Q4 2009) BPS Reduction from Peak to Q Office6.5% (Q2 ’07)8.9%6.7%+240 bps(220 bps) Industrial6.8% (Q1 ’07)8.7%6.7%+190 bps(200 bps) Apartments6.1% (Q4 ’06)7.0%5.8%+90 bps(120 bps) Retail6.5% (Q2 ’07)8.2%6.4%+170 bps(180 bps) Total (All Property Types)6.6% (Q4 ’07)7.9%6.3%+130 bps(160 bps)

Quarterly Volume of Property Sales Source: Real Capital Analytics

Loan Refinancing Demand ■Wave of loan maturities peaking now ■Distressed property sales will abate over the next few years, but opportunities remain due to:  Sheer volume of refinancing demand relative to likely future origination volume  Property values lower than at origination  Tighter future underwriting standards vs. origination, e.g., lower loan to value, higher debt service coverage, greater amortization, etc. Source: Foresight Analytics

Historical NCREIF Total Returns Source: NCREIF NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX – TOTAL RETURN As of 12/31/15

U.S. Stocks vs. U.S. Bonds vs. Private Real Estate Through 6/30/15 Inception date represents the start of the NCREIF Property Index (1978) Source: NCREIF

Core Real Estate Has Led the Way Out of the Recession, but…. What is most attractive today?  “Flight to Quality” post recession (past 5+ years)  Core real estate has enjoyed above average return over the past 3+ years (see below)  As is typical out of a recession, Core-Plus has been slower to recover, but is now positioned to outperform for the near to mid-term  Core-Plus funds positioned to invest new client commitments within one to two quarters providing exposure to today’s attractive market characteristics Core-Only Total Return

Biography Paul Nasser, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Operating Officer, is responsible for managing the firm's resources across investment and operating disciplines. As Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of Intercontinental, he is a member of the Executive Committee, Investment Committee, Valuation Committee, and oversees Performance Reporting, Investor Relations, Accounting, Finance, Marketing, Human Resources, Technology and Administration. Prior to joining Intercontinental in 2000, Paul Nasser was Senior Vice President and Team Leader in Fleet's Real Estate Finance Group handling a real estate portfolio of over $1 billion. In this capacity, Mr. Nasser managed construction and acquisition loans, private placements, mezzanine debt, retail real estate, REITs and residential real estate development. Before joining Fleet in 1991, he held various senior management positions in the banking industry. Active in many civic and charitable organizations, Mr. Nasser is on the Board of Directors of the Massachusetts Chapter of the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties (NAIOP); is the President Elect for 2017 for the Greater Boston Board of Real Estate Finance Association; and Mr. Nasser serves as a trustee for St. John’s Preparatory School, Danvers, MA and serves as a member of the Facilities Committee for Bishop Fenwick High School, Peabody, MA. Mr. Nasser holds memberships with the Treasurer's Club of Boston, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers (NAREIM); and the Pension Real Estate Advisory (PREA). Mr. Nasser was the former Chairman of the Advisory Board for St. John the Evangelist School, former Chairman and President of the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties Massachusetts Chapter, former member of the National Board of Directors of the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties (NAIOP), and former member of the Board of Directors of Junior Achievement of Eastern Massachusetts. In 2015, Mr. Nasser was named the CFO of the Year for Midsize Private Companies by the Boston Business Journal. Mr. Nasser received his BA in Urban Planning from the University of Rhode Island in 1983 and his MBA from Suffolk University in 1998