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Update on Real Estate Capital Markets-- Where is the Equity Investment Market Today? CREW Network: Investing in Your Professional Development Presenter.

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Presentation on theme: "Update on Real Estate Capital Markets-- Where is the Equity Investment Market Today? CREW Network: Investing in Your Professional Development Presenter."— Presentation transcript:

1 Update on Real Estate Capital Markets-- Where is the Equity Investment Market Today? CREW Network: Investing in Your Professional Development Presenter : Lisa Campoli Executive Vice President & Managing Partner Colliers International

2 Real Estate Capital Markets Update Lisa M. Campoli, Executive Vice President & Managing Partner July 19, 2012

3 Webinar Agenda Big picture - global economic considerations Snapshot of today’s real estate capital markets Focus on U.S. equity trends Preferred regions and property types Current underwriting considerations

4 Private Debt Public Debt Private Equity Public Equity Source: Emerging Trends U.S. Real Estate Capital Markets - $3.93 Trillion

5 Private Investors Domestic Pension Funds REITS & C Corps Foreign Interests Life Ins. Cos. Inst’l OREO K E Y Private Investment Cos. Pension Funds REITs Source: Emerging Trends U.S. Equity Market - $1.15 Trillion

6 Public REIT Offerings 2005-2011 (capital raised in billions) Source: NAREIT

7 Commercial Banks CMBS Market Life Insurers REIT Unsecured Gov’t Credit Pension Funds K E Y Commercial Banks CMBS Life Insurers Source: Emerging Trends U.S. Debt Market - $2.78 Trillion

8 CMBS Loan Performance by MSA

9 Real Estate As An Investment Asset Class Why Invest in Real Estate? Institutional Investor  Portfolio diversification  Annual cash flow  Risk-adjusted return (between stocks and bonds)  Appreciation potential  Inflation hedge Private Investor  Value creation/capital appreciation  Ability to leverage  Annual cash flow  Risk-adjusted return  Inflation hedge  Tax benefits

10 Hold Vs. Sell Decision-Making Optimal time to sell is the convergence of three factors: Portfolio objectives are achieved Markets are peaking (capital and leasing markets) Property is peaking within its “life cycle”

11 Demand by Property Type: Cap Rate Comparison

12 Core Cap Rates Vs. Debt 200 bps 450 bps 487 bps

13 Major Underwriting Issues Lease-up (rents and timing) Rent growth (3-5 year outlook) Renewal assumptions Capital expenses (base & leasing) Residual value (exit cap rate) Debt strategy Replacement cost comparison Value Per SF Appreciation potential

14 Outlook for 2012 Capital demand will remain steady, but bi-furcated Sellers will be enticed by improved pricing Lenders will exit problems that were not re-worked Interest rates and cap rates are likely to remain low Stabilizing fundamentals will enhance outlook for NOI

15 Thank you for attending UPDATE ON REAL ESTATE CAPITAL MARKETS – WHERE IS THE EQUITY INVESTMENT MARKET TODAY? Please check the CREW Network web site for future webinar schedules at www.crewnetwork.org under Eventswww.crewnetwork.org


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