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Growth Solutions Strategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for Capital Appreciation.

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Presentation on theme: "Growth Solutions Strategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for Capital Appreciation."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Growth Solutions Strategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for Capital Appreciation

3 Derek Peterson - Moderator Senior Vice President, Walton Int’l Group J. David Kelsey Managing Principal, Hamilton Point Investments Bill Lehew Director of Strategic Accounts, Hines H. Michael Schwartz Chairman & CEO, Strategic Storage

4 Key Trends Population Growth Drives Demand for Development U.S. Population Growth Trend 1  Current United States population: 316 million 3  Population growth projected at approximately 3 million per year 4 1915196720062050 2 Population (Millions) 100200300400 Concentration of Growth 1U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, August 14, 2008. 2U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the US - 2015-2016 3Census.gov, Population Clock, August 8, 2013. 4National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009, Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 5Metropolitan Institute Census Report Series, Census Report 05:01, “Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s new ‘ Megapolitan’ Geography” (Virginia Tech, May 2005) Over 70% of the United States population is projected to live in one of ten regions known as megapolitans by 2040. 5

5 Key Trends Home starts dropped to unprecedented levels Multi-Family Starts 2 Single-Family Starts 2 3 million more people each year 1 to 1.4 million household formations need to account for 300,000 demolitions need 1.3 to 1.7 million new units 1 *Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis, October 10, 2013. 1 National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009; Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2011 and January 2013. 1.3

6 Key Trends Home starts dropped to unprecedented levels 3 million more people each year 1 to 1.4 million household formations need to account for 300,000 demolitions need 1.3 to 1.7 million new units 1 *Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis, October 10, 2013. 1 National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009; Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2011 and January 2013. 1.3 Multi-Family Starts 2 Single-Family Starts 2

7 Key Trends 1 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, State Population Estimates 2000 – 2010, February 2011. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Historical National Population 1900 - 1999, revised June 28, 2000. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, National Housing Starts Annual Data 1959 – 2010. * Represents new privately owned housing units. 72% decrease in housing starts* from peak of 2.1 million to 587,000 7% increase in U.S. Population since 2003 from 290 million to 309 million Population 1 (000s) Housing Starts 2 (000s)

8 Key Trends LAND ABSORPTION PERMITS PEOPLE JOBS Determining Future Demand for Development

9 Top U.S. Employment Markets by Job Growth from 2000-2012 1 Houston 440,800 2 Washington D.C. 361,000 3 Dallas-Fort Worth 255,000 4 Phoenix-Tucson 178,600 5 Inland Empire 163,200 6 New York 157,000 7 Austin 150,500 8 San Antonio 132,700 9 Orlando 130,800 10 Las Vegas 125,900 11 Miami 120,300 12 Nashville 88,000 13 Raleigh-Durham 85,300 14 Charlotte 80,300 15 Salt Lake City 75,400 16 Edinburg 71,900 17 Baltimore 67,500 18 San Diego 65,000 19 Seattle 63,100 20 Indianapolis 60,300 PERMITSPEOPLE JOBS LAND ABSORPTION Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, MSA Employment Ranking, 2000-2012 Walton Target Markets Historical Trends: Job Growth

10 Top U.S. MSAs by Net Domestic Migration (2000-2012) #1 Phoenix-Tucson586,019 #2 Inland Empire489,209 #3 Atlanta465,246 #4 Dallas-Fort Worth408,416 #5 Las Vegas316,937 #6 Houston305,492 #7 Austin295,232 #8 Tampa293,491 #9 Charlotte282,638 #10 Orlando258,381 #11 Raleigh-Durham220,584 #12 San Antonio217,874 #13 Nashville147,457 #14 Sacramento145,242 #15 Portland144,313 #16 Fort Myers143,853 #17 Jacksonville136,469 #18 Sarasota115,912 #19 Denver108,262 #20 Boise91,577 Walton Target Markets Historical Trends: Net Domestic Migration Source: U.S Census Bureau – Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000– July 1, 2009; July 1, 2010 – July 1, 2011; July 1, 2011 – July 1, 2012 Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, Net Domestic Migration by MSA, April 2009-April 2010

11 Top U.S. MSAs by Population Growth From 2000-2012 1 Dallas-Fort Worth 1,504,803 2 New York 1,479,115 3 Houston 1,437,621 4 Atlanta 1,175,926 5 Inland Empire 1,072,518 6 Phoenix-Tucson 1,050,873 7 Washington D.C 1,039,311 8 Charlotte 956,152 9 Miami 736,911 10 Sarasota 720,042 11 Los Angeles 653,971 12 Las Vegas 607,389 13 Austin 568,588 14 Orlando 566,839 15 San Antonio 514,741 16 Seattle 499,778 17 Denver 451,187 18 Minneapolis 440,648 19 Tampa 438,605 20 Nashville 409,113 PERMITSPEOPLE JOBS LAND ABSORPTION Walton Target Markets Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates for MSA 2000-2009; US Census Bureau, Population Estimates for MSA 2010-2012. Historical Trends: Population Growth

12 Top U.S. MSA by Average Annual U.S. Single-Family Permits Issued (2000-2012) 1 Houston 450,992 2 Atlanta 443,398 3 Dallas-Fort Worth 398,359 4 Phoenix-Tucson 380,671 5 Chicago 278,009 6 Inland Empire 270,410 7 Washington D.C. 250,775 8 Las Vegas 220,526 9 New York 215,559 10 Orlando 186,429 11 Tampa 167,723 12 Charlotte 167,289 13 Seattle 156,213 14 Miami 152,687 15 Denver 152,483 16 Minneapolis 149,539 17 Philadelphia 149,351 18 Los Angeles 147,911 19 Austin 141,370 20 Detroit 131,726 Walton Target Markets Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits by Metropolitan Statistical Area – Annualized 2000-2012. PERMITSPEOPLE JOBS LAND ABSORPTION Historical Trends: Single Family Permits

13 Real Estate Life Cycle Most competitive capital Least competitive capital

14 MultiFamily Multifamily Fundamentals Are Solid Source: REIS ReportsSource: Freddie Mac HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS

15 MultiFamily Source: US Census Bureau HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS Overall U.S. Supply/Demand in Equilibrium

16 MultiFamily Individual Markets Still Hold Opportunity! Source: Moody’s/RCA CPPI Source:: CoStar Group, Inc. HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS

17 Storage Self Storage Market Trends Source: Cushman & Wakefield Presentation – Self Storage: the State of the Industry H. Michael Schwartz President, CEO

18 Self Storage Supply Growth H. Michael Schwartz President, CEO

19 Derek Peterson - Moderator Senior Vice President, Walton Int’l Group J. David Kelsey Managing Principal, Hamilton Point Investments Bill Lehew Director of Strategic Accounts, Hines H. Michael Schwartz Chairman & CEO, Strategic Storage

20 Growth Solutions QUESTIONS ?


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