Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Simulated maize yields: baseline and changes by 2055 (from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2001) present2055 ™

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptation responses. GECAFS Goal

Food Provision Provision = f (production, availability, access) Production= f (yield, area) Availability= f (production, distribution, storage) Access= f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality] )

Understand how GEC will additionally affect food provision in different regional food systems.  GECAFS Science Theme 1 Determine how different food systems might be adapted to cope with both GEC and changing demands.  GECAFS Science Theme 2 Assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations.  GECAFS Science Theme 3 GECAFS Long-Term Aims

Global Environmental Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Socioeconomic Change Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks GECAFS Science Themes

Food Systems Research Sub-continental scale e.g. Subsistence & commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic Plain) Import & subsistence arable + fishing (Caribbean) Conceptual and Methodological Research Generic e.g. Vulnerability concepts Scenario development Two types of GECAFS Projects

Food Systems Research Projects Ensures a GEC science agenda that:  interacts effectively with the regional policy making process and thereby encourages more support for the regional science communities  attracts donor support from outside the “traditional” GEC funding community Research being developed to: (i)relate to regional development needs (ii)have relevance to current and near-term issues, as well as to longer-term issues

Principal Criteria: Range of Food Systems Range of GEC Issues Other Criteria (alphabetically listed): Geographical balance of the portfolio of projects Policy interest/mechanism at project scale Potential donor interest Potential links to IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core Projects Potential regional coordination/leadership Relevance to regional development Food Systems Research Projects Selection Criteria

Subsistence & commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic Plain) water availability, climate change & variability, GHG emissions Import & subsistence arable + fishing (Caribbean) climate variability, sea-level rise, coastal zone degradation Commercial & subsistence arable + livestock (Southern Africa) climate variability, land degradation Income/livelihoods-based (Eastern Pacific coastal fisheries) ENSO/sea currents, marine biodiversity loss Food Systems Research Projects Initial Set + Main GEC Issues

Vulnerability Concepts To integrate concepts of vulnerability of social aspects of food systems with concepts from natural science to provide a more holistic approach to vulnerability studies. Scenario Construction To determine how to construct the comprehensive scenarios needed for providing appropriate context for GECAFS food systems research. Decision Support Systems Development To develop, evaluate and refine innovative decision support systems for use in GECAFS food systems research. Conceptual & Methodological Research Initial Set

Population density in areas where the length of the growing period (LGP) is <90 days. Based on Global Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ), Landscan2000 population density, and irrigation maps (from FAO, GIS-SDRN unpublished).

A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks. A problem-oriented, policy-relevant approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities. A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels which will help develop effective policy to protect vulnerable sections of society. A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for both food provision and environment. GECAFS “Distinguishing Features”

How will climate variability and other aspects of GEC affect food systems and livelihoods dependent on pelagic, demersal and coastal fishing? [GECAFS Science Theme 1] What management and policy strategies will best reduce the vulnerability of fisheries-based livelihoods to climate variability and increase employment opportunities? [GECAFS Science Theme 2] What will be the consequences of alternative strategies for local and regional biodiversity, and for poverty alleviation in coastal communities? [GECAFS Science Theme 3] Potential GECAFS questions for Eastern Pacific Coastal Fisheries