Alternatives to Oil What can we do? Dr. Robert J. Brecha Physics Dept. INSS Workshop - April 28, 2006

US Geological Survey Estimates Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)

Driving Habits vs. Hybrids Scenario one: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; hybrids increase by 25%/yr; driving amt. remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yr Scenario two: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yr Scenario three: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 10% one time to 10,440 mi/veh/yr Scenario four: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 2%/yr from 11,600 mi/veh/yr But … if the decline rate is 3 – 5 %/year?

Options?? Natural Gas Natural Gas Tar sands Tar sands Shale oil Shale oil Hydrogen Hydrogen Ethanol Ethanol Decreased Decreasedconsumption  Declining NA production  Environ. + production problems  Currently uses NG; see above  Corn – land, net energy probs.  Sign of personal virtue

EROEI “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” Cutler J. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782 Tar sands Hydro Wind

Natural Gas United States (Bcf/day) Canada (Bcf/day)

Natural Gas in the US EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data (per day)

Four Scenarios

Coal Production Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005

Coal Production

Tar Sands Alberta, Canada + Venezuela Alberta, Canada + Venezuela Effectively a mining operation Effectively a mining operation Current production of 600,000 bbl/day of synthetic crude oil Current production of 600,000 bbl/day of synthetic crude oil Estimates of ~3 MMb/d in 10 – 20 years if all goes well. Estimates of ~3 MMb/d in 10 – 20 years if all goes well. Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal The plan now is to expand capacity from the present 155,000 barrels a day to more than 500,000 by This will require many billions of dollars of further investment in mining and upgrading facilities. Malcolm Brinded Executive Director Exploration & Production, Royal Dutch Shell plc

Ethanol Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha kg corn /ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×10 10 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×10 8 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×10 8 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. GHG emissions are greater than for conventional gasoline. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, (2006)

Oil Shale Western U.S. Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 bbl/d in 2025 or later. High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 bbl/d in 2025 or later. Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

Hydrogen Current US annual production: 10 Mt Current US annual production: 10 Mt accounts for 5% of natural gas usage accounts for 5% of natural gas usage releases 100 Mt CO 2. releases 100 Mt CO 2. Direct use for all US transport would require some 200 Mt/yr. Direct use for all US transport would require some 200 Mt/yr. Mostly from reforming methane (NG) Mostly from reforming methane (NG) Used for making ammonia (fertilizer); oil refining Used for making ammonia (fertilizer); oil refining Could use electricity to obtain H 2 from H 2 O Could use electricity to obtain H 2 from H 2 O Fuel cells Fuel cells Expensive $3000/kW (gasoline engine: $30/kW) Expensive $3000/kW (gasoline engine: $30/kW) Well-to-wheels efficiency  current hybrid electric vehicles Well-to-wheels efficiency  current hybrid electric vehicles Physics Today, Dec Transportation Energy Data Book, 24 th ed.

Nuclear Technology known Technology known Good for environment – at least for CO 2 emissions Good for environment – at least for CO 2 emissions Electricity, not transportation Electricity, not transportation Back to Hirsch Back to Hirsch Waste disposal, etc. Waste disposal, etc. Non-renewable (~50 years at CROC?) Non-renewable (~50 years at CROC?)

Solar Energy Clearly plentiful, renewable Clearly plentiful, renewable Now provides ~0.1% of energy (see Hirsch) Now provides ~0.1% of energy (see Hirsch) Embodied energy questions – but seem favorable Embodied energy questions – but seem favorable Hot water or electricity Hot water or electricity Local generation Local generation In Ohio? In Ohio?