1. University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives Carey King, Ph.D. Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy Jackson School of Geological Sciences

2. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 2 February 23, 2011 Value of university research is freedom to look ahead Universities can spend time on the long-range problems Funding from multiple sources (federal, state, industry, NGO) helps to ensure objectivity and longevity Train future critical thinkers Study pure science  integrated systems

3. Technology and Systems viewpoints: Oil case

4. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 4 February 23, 2011 http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/oilgas_educational_posters.html US DOE Poster

5. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 5 February 23, 2011 Solutions are needed on global scale (e.g. peak oil) Source: www.aspo-ireland.org; http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

6. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 6 February 23, 2011 Energy Return On (energy) Investment (EROI) tells us about energy quality & technology “Energy gain has implications beyond mere accounting. It fundamentally influences the structure and organization of living systems, including human societies.” (Tainter, Allen et al. 2003) EROI measures the battle between resource depletion and technological advancement EROI = E output / E input

7. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 7 February 23, 2011 Spindletop, Beaumont Texas, 1901. 18 million barrels a year from a trivial investment. Courtesy of C. A. S. Hall http://www.priweb.org/ed/pgws/history /spindletop/spindletop.html

8. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 8 February 23, 2011 Today: Thunder Horse platform produced ~ 70 million barrels in 2009 – but investment is huge http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/crazy_horse/ http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52659 http://xpda.com/junkmail/junk187/thunder_horse_1720_1137.jpg

9. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 9 February 23, 2011 King, C. W. (2010) Environmental Research Letters.

10. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 10 February 23, 2011 EIA, Annual Energy Review (2008). 2008

11. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 11 February 23, 2011 Future oil supplies are more expensive: lower EROI (quality) = higher price Oil Sands Oil Shale Historical Range Recent Range

12. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 12 February 23, 2011 Biofuels AND fossil alternatives (oil sands, oil shale) have challenges

13. Texas energy consumption and emissions

14. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 14 February 23, 2011 Understand Texas economy & emissions January 29, 2009 a TX Legislator suggested … –~ ‘UK, and world, should follow Texas’ lead in reducing CO 2 emissions with growing economy’ From 2000-2005: TX GSP up 16.5%, CO 2 down 4.4% US Total a TX Total b US Industrial c TX Industrial b TX Natural Gas b 2000 5,8936541,786218233 2005 6,0326251,672179186 % change 2000 to 2005 2.4 %-4.4 %-6.4 %-17.6 %-20.5 % MtCO 2 /yr Data from Energy Information Administration: a: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xls b: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/state/excel/TX_05_details.xlsH c: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl9.xlsH

15. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 15 February 23, 2011 Emissions drop in TX almost exclusively from drop in natural gas consumption

16. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 16 February 23, 2011 Natural gas drop almost entirely due to industrial sector; electricity CO 2 held constant

17. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 17 February 23, 2011 Increase in price of natural gas was main driver for downturn in Texas’ CO 2 emissions

18. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 18 February 23, 2011 Federal and state policies have been successful for Texas wind Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Wind

19. Need tools/documents for people to learn energy tradeoffs for themselves

20. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 20 February 23, 2011 We need comparison of energy alternatives side-by- side using many metrics King & Webber (2008). Env. Sci. & Tech. 42 (21), 7866-7872. Conventional Fossil Fuels Gasoline Diesel CNG Unconventional Fossil Fuels Coal F-T Diesel NG F-T Diesel Gasoline – Shale Oil Gasoline – Tar Sands EV/PHEV Electrolysis Wind/PV Solar Wind/PV Solar US Grid Electrolysis US Grid Methane Reforming H 2 Fuel Cells Irrigated Corn E85 grain Non-irrigated Irrigated Non-irrigated Corn E85 Soy Biodiesel stover grain & stover grain stover grain & stover

21. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 21 February 23, 2011 Interactive tools allow for discussion of alternatives using baseline data Thanks to Power Across Texas http://tips.engr.utexas.edu/

22. Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 22 February 23, 2011 Value universities for creating information from data Partners in providing information for policy and decision-making Objective and transparent (as possible!) tools for comparison of options Relate technical and physical constraints to energy end use Educate students to be critical thinkers

23. Carey King careyking@mail.utexas.edu http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/cieep Thank You http://www.webberenergygroup.com WEBBER ENERGY GROUP Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy http://www.gulfcoastcarbon.org