1. World Meteorological Organization Roles of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action Dr Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of WMO DRR Programme Expert Meeting on “National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ Participation in Disaster Risk Reduction Coordination Mechanisms and Early Warning Systems” 26 November 2007

2. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2005) Source: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 90% of events, 70% of loss of life and 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards. Economic losses Loss of life Number of events

3. 90% of Disasters are Hydro-Meteorological (Number of Events, 1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

4. Conclusions from 4 th IPCC Assessment Report WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability PhenomenonLikelihoodMajor projected impacts Increased frequency of heat waves Very likelyIncreased risk of heat-related mortality Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events Very likelyIncreased loss of life and property due to flooding, and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases Area affected by drought increases LikelyIncreased risk of food and water shortage Intense tropical cyclone activity increases LikelyIncreased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and food-borne diseases; Disruption by flood and high winds; Potential for population migrations, loss of property Increased incidence of extreme high sea level LikelyIncreased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure

5. Global Coordination in Hazard Detection and Forecasting to Support MH EWS Global Telecommunication System Global Observing System Coordinated Satellite System Global Data Processing and Forecasting System

6. WMO Coordinated Network of Specialised Centres: Observing, Detecting, Forecasting, Warning (and Training)

7. Communication and Dissemination International & regional level: Global Telecommunication System National level: dissemination of authoritative warnings National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Government and civil defence authorities MediaGeneral public Private sector Hazards under the mandate of NMHS Hazards under the joint mandate of NMHS and another technical agency Hazard for which NMHS only provides supports (information / dissemination)

8. Consultation Process for Development of the WMO DRR Strategic Goals and Action Plan April 2006June 200729-31 Jan 2007 4-6 Dec 2006 Oct 2006 Complete surveys & develop databases Activate all DPM focal points and Working Groups Analyse, develop reports and recommendations Prepare report of outcomes of EC AG DPM Prepare documentation for Congress XV Consultation for drafting and finalisation of WMO DPM Implementation Plan for submission to Congress XV 2 nd EC AG DPM Congress XV Coordination Meeting with Programmes, TC, RA Coordinate and consult closely with Programmes, Technical Commissions, Regional Associations and Strategic Partners Country-level, TC and Programmes surveys launched Regional Associations surveys launched Draft WMO DPM Implementation Plan to be submitted to EC AG DPM (end Dec 2006)

9. Mapping WMO and NMHS Mandates and Contributions to HFA Key Activities lead rolepartially lead and contributing role contributing roleno role

10. DRR Strategic Foundation WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2011 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Jan 2005) DPM Strategic Goals in Disaster Risk Reduction

11. Mapping WMO and NMHS Mandates and Contributions to HFA Key Activities (1/2) HFA Five Priorities for Action have been reprioritized and classified according to WMO and NMHS mandates and contributions: 1: Risk identification, assessment, monitoring and early warning (HFA Priority 2) 2: Knowledge management and education (HFA Priority 3) 3: Preparedness for effective response and recovery (HFA Priority 5) 4: Reducing underlying risk factors (HFA Priority 4) 5: Governance: organizational, legal and policy frameworks (HFA Priority 1)

12. DRR Strategic Goals - Key Words 1.Strengthening and sustainability of early warning systems 2.Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment 3.Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements 4.Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships with national and international disaster risk reduction organizations 5.public outreach campaigns

13. Disaster Risk Management and Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Risk TransferRisk IdentificationRisk Reduction Governance and Organizational Coordination Historical hazard data and analysis Changing hazard trends Vulnerability assessment Risk quantification Sectoral planning Early Warning Systems Emergency preparedness planning Education and training Cat Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Derivatives Knowledge Sharing

14. Need for Coordination and Collaborations Among Various Stakeholders Media Academia and Research Sectoral Planning Civil Protection and Humanitarian Financial Risk Transfer Scientific and Technical Services Coordination Collaborations

15. Need for Effective and Harmonized Governance, Organizational and Operational Mechanisms Awareness, Knowledge Sharing, Capacity development INSTITUTIONAL  Clarity of roles and responsibilities  Coordination and partnerships  Integrated planning GOVERNANCE  Strong political will and commitment  Disaster management plans  Legislation and policies (all levels)  Legal frameworks OPERATIONAL  Processes and mechanisms  Integration of information in decision process  Preparedness and drills  Training  Effective response  Feedback

16. Contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Assessment Availability of historical and real-time hazard databases Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies –Severity, Frequency, Location, Timing –Statistical analysis of historical data –GIS/GPS mapping –Probabilitic climate models – Forward looking trend analysis Emerging technologies (factors in changing patters due to climate variablity and change )

17. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Reduction Input into sectoral planning (zoning, development, etc) Early warning systems –Probabilistic forecasting and warnings from next hour to longer climate timescales –Integration of risk information into warning messages –Communication and dissemination –Partnerships, joint planning and joint training with national agencies responsible of emergency preparedness and response Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations

18. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Transfer –Crop / flood insurance –Agricultural and drought derivatives CAT Insurance/ Bonds Weather derivatives Government Private sector –Insurance for property and casualty –Micro-insurance –Catastrophe bonds for Tropical Cyclones, Earthquakes exampleproductsprovider

19. WMO Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction Implementation through regional and national projects, with following end results: 1. Modernized NMHSs and observing networks. 2.Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. 3.Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro- meteorological risk assessment capacities. 4.Strengthened NMHSs cooperation with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. 5.Trained management and staff of NMHS 6.Enhanced ministerial and public awareness

20. Strategic partnerships with ISDR System Partners are actively sought to leverage complementary capacities, expertise and funding for implementation of disaster risk reduction at national and regional levels.

21. For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters Thank You