Presentation on theme: "World Meteorological Organization"— Presentation transcript:
1 World Meteorological Organization Development of Capacities for Managing Risk Associated with Weather-related Hazards in Middle-East & North Africa(based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006)Jaser RabadiWMO Regional Office for West Asia, Bahrain
3 We cannot avoid them ….but we can prevent them from becoming disasters $ 1 invested in disaster preparedness can save $ of disaster-related lossesSource: World Resources Institute
4 AgendaImpacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events in MENA RegionHow the WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services can help in disaster risk reductionAnalysis of the Response of MENA Countries to the Survey of Meteorological and Hydrological Technical Capacities and Services in Support of Disaster Risk assessment and managementHow the WMO can help support Disaster Risk Reduction in MENA
5 Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis AlgeriaBahrainDjiboutiEgyptIran, Islamic Republic ofIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyan Arab JamahiriyaMauritaniaMoroccoOccupied Palestinian TerritoryOmanQatarRepublic of YemenSaudi ArabiaSomaliaSudanSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaUnited Arab EmiratesRed text (14) = Included in the Analysis
6 1. Facts…MENA HazardsRed text (14) = Included in the Analysis
7 Distribution of Natural Disasters in MENA Region (1980-2005) Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - BelgiumMore than 80 % of natural disasters were caused by Weather-related hazards.
8 Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Casualties Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium(99% Sudan)(90% Iran)Nearly 70 % of casualties were caused by Weather-related hazards.
9 Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Economic losses (45% Iran43% Algeria)Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium45 % of economic losses were caused by Weather-related hazards.
10 2. Increasing Risks Associated With Climate Change Conclusions from 4th IPCC Assessment Report WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityPhenomenonLikelihoodMajor projected impactsIncreased frequency of heat wavesVery likelyIncreased risk of heat-related mortality, health, impacts on ag., …Increased frequency of heavy precipitation eventsIncreased loss of life and property due to flooding.Area affected by drought increasesLikelyIncreased risk of food and water shortageIntense tropical cyclone activity increasesIncreased risk of deaths, injuries, Potential for population migrations, loss of property, ….Increased incidence of extreme sea level riseDisruption of coastal echo systems, fisheries, infrastructure, water resources, migration of populations..Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrenceVery likely 90 to 99% probabilityLikely 66 to 90% probability10
11 WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction in MENA
12 Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction 187 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were Surveyed to Identify:The hydrometeorological hazards affecting their countriesTheir involvement and role in national organizational and governance structures for disaster risk reductionTheir capacities to deliver products and services to support disaster risk reductionMajor gaps and needs related to their capacitiesGlobal Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction
13 Countries Participating in the Country-Level DRR Survey 44/4892 %18/2282 %25/3474 %10/1283 %24/5254 %14/1974 %139 out of 187 Members (74 %) respondedLeast developedcountries:25/5050 %Developingcountries:85/13754 %
14 Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis AlgeriaBahrainDjiboutiEgyptIran, Islamic Republic ofIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyan Arab JamahiriyaMauritaniaMoroccoOccupied Palestinian TerritoryOmanQatarRepublic of YemenSaudi ArabiaSomaliaSudanSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaUnited Arab EmiratesRed text (14) = Included in the Analysis
15 Capacities of National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities vary highly country-by-countryAlgeriaIran, Islamic Republic ofJordanSaudi ArabiaTunisiaBahrainLibyan Arab JamahiriyaEgyptGlobally Averaged ResultsQatarOmanMoroccoUnited Arab EmiratesSudanRepublic of Yemen
16 Number of responding countries who identified themselves as being affected by specific hazards Top 10 hydrometeorologocial hazards include strong winds, thunderstorm or lightning, flash floods, sand storms, heat wave, dense fog and drought
17 Archival of Hazard Data vs. Socio-Economic Impact Data The socio-economic impacts of hazards are archived by only a few countries
18 Warnings which are Nationally Mandated through National Meteorological service, National Hydrological Service, combined service or other agenciesThe majority countries are mandated to provide warnings for the top ten hazards
19 Support provided by NMHSs (through expertise, products and services) to agencies responsible for disaster risk reduction
20 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide early warning information to: The majority of NMHSs provide early warning information to government ministries, news media, general public and emergency response services
21 Meaning ????Capacities or Services, in support of disaster risk management:Vary highly from country to country;Capacity development would be needed at different levels.
22 Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate EnergyWater ResourceManagementHeatwavesHeavy rainfall / FloodTropical CyclonesCoastal Marine HazardsStrong WindFood securityTransportIntensityHealthIndustryUrban areasExposure is increasing !HazardNeed forPreventionand MitigationFrequency
23 How Can WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Help in Disaster Risk Reduction?
24 Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Governance and Organizational Coordination and CooperationRisk Identification and AssessmentRisk Reduction(Prevention & Mitigation)Risk TransferHistorical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trendsExposed assets & vulnerabilityRisk quantificationSectoral planningEarly warning systemsEmergency preparedness & planningCatastrophe insurance/ bond marketsAlternative risk transferEWS are a critical part of disaster risk managementEducation, Training and Information and Knowledge Sharing
25 Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling …. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk AssessmentStandardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling ….Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadataHazard analysis and mapping methodologiesFuture hazard trend analysisShort- to Medium-term weather forecastsProbabilistic climate models –
26 Initiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008. Risk Assessment/Partnership UNDP and World Bank Flood, Drought, Tropical Cyclone and Severe Storms1. Standardized hazard data and metadata2. Standardized hazard analysis and mapping methodologies3. Mainstreaming risk assessment in sectoral planning (partners)4. Capacity development and training5. Demonstration projects in selected countriesFLOODSEVERE STORMS / TROPICAL CYCLONESDROUGHTInitiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008.
27 Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction Information providers for sectoral planning (agriculture, water resources, transport, tourism, health, etc.)Early warning systemsProbabilistic forecasting and warningsIntegration of risk information into warning messagesCommunication and disseminationSupporting emergency preparedness and responseMeteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operationsShift from emergency response to risk reduction through prevention and preparedness…
28 post-disaster response Why are early warning systems not working?Communitiesat riskNational to localgovernmentsIn many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster reduction management and focus remains on post-disaster responsepost-disaster responseNATIONAL SERVICESMeteorologicalHydrologicalwarningGeologicalMarineHealth (etc.)…
29 Effective Early Warning Systems Community PreparednessNational to localgovernmentssupported byDRR plans, legislationand coordinationmechanismsFeedbackpreventive actionsFeedbackwarningwarningCOORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICESMeteorologicalHydrologicalGeologicalMarineHealth (etc.)warningFeedback
30 Effective Early Warning Systems (different view) National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms are critical to ensure emergency planning and response involving 4 technical componentsNeed for coordination and collaborations among various types of agencies for implementation and strengthening of EWS
31 project in MENA countries WMO National and Regional Projects for Implementation and Strengthening of Multi-Hazard EWSEWS Demonstration projectsEuropeFrance8 South-Eastern Europe countries (with World Bank and ISDR)European river basin (transboundary)AsiaChina (Shanghai)IndiaNorth America, Central America and the CaribbeanUnited States/Canada transboundaryCosta Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador in Central America (with World Bank and IFRC)Technical Capacity Development for Specific HazardsSevere weather (Southern Africa and Pacific)Flash flood guidance system (Central America and Southern Africa)Sand and dust storm (Middle-East and Northern Africa)Drought (South-East Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa)Opportunities to initiate coordinated multi-hazard early warning systemsproject in MENA countries
32 Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Governance and Organizational Coordination and CooperationRisk Identification and AssessmentRisk Reduction(Prevention & Mitigation)Risk TransferHistorical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trendsExposed assets & vulnerabilityRisk quantificationSectoral planningEarly warning systemsEmergency preparedness & planningEducation and trainingCatastrophe insurance/ bond marketsAlternative risk transferEWS are a critical part of disaster risk managementInformation and Knowledge Sharing
33 Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time dataData quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysisReliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlementForecasts for management of risk portfolioTechnical support and service delivery
34 WMO Initiative in Support of Financial Risk Transfer Markets Partners: World Bank, World Food Programme, Reinsurance, WRMAGuidelines for standardized data and forecast productsWork with partners on country-specific cases;Development of standard indices (technical commissions);Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations);Modernization of observing networks, data rescue programmes and capacity development of NMHS;Raise political awareness on benefits of NMHSs products and services (with private and public partners).
35 World Meteorological Organization How can the WMO support projects in MENA?
36 WMO Strategic Goals in DRR - Key Words Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessmentStrengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systemsDelivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirementsStrengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizationsPublic outreach campaignsImplemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners’ resources/expertise.
37 Global Coordination of National Observing Networks & Global Telecommunication System Coordinated Satellite ActivitiesGlobal Observing SystemGlobal Telecommunication SystemGlobal Data Exchange:WMO Resolutions 40 and 25Global Data Processing and Forecasting37
38 Leveraging WMO Regional Forecasting Centers to Assist Members WMO’s Global Data Processing and Forecasting CentresMENACountriesSharing Resources and Providing Technical Support for Analysis and Forecasting (short to long term)
39 Regional Training Centres MENACountriesPromoting use of relevant new and emerging technologies and techniques for effective provision of meteorological and hydrological services in support of sustainable development
40 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every countryNational Meteorological and Hydrological ServicesHazard analysis, advisory and warning services for a wide range of hazardsFeedbacks, needs, requirements
41 Examples of Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA RegionAgriculture: Desert Locust, with FAO
42 Other Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA RegionTransportWater ResourceManagementHealthIndustry & infrastructureMarineSafety
43 Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA RegionAcross all sectors: Climate Outlooks and El Nino / La Nina updates
44 Local Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making Improved Information to assess future climate scenariosWMO/World Bank Project: AfricaBurundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and UgandaDownscalingLocal Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making44
45 Modernization of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region: Enhancing Potential Contributions to DRRBahrain*Islamic Republic of IranLibyan Arab Jamahiriya*OmanSaudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates** With support from UNDP
46 WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region At the international level, WMO isPartner of World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, WHO, FAO, OCHA, UNOSAT, andMember of GFDRR, ISDR System Management Oversight Board. WMO and NMHSs assume a lead role in implementation of Hyogo Framework for Action, particularly related to the second Priority for Action, “Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.”At regional and national levels, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Specialised Centres (Casablanca, Algiers, Tunis, Cairo, Jeddah) should be considered as partners for disaster risk reduction
47 WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region Provision of hazard information data, forecast and mapping to support:Risk assessmentSectoral Planning (infrastructure, food security)Financial risk transfer marketsCapacity development in multi-hazard early warning systemsOperational cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and National Disaster Management Organizations and RCRCProviding expertise in assessments and capacity development projects and implementation planningCoordinated projects among partners to assist countries in a more comprehensive manner
48 Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters For more information please contact:Dr Jaser RabadiWMO Representative for West AsiaUN House, PO Box 26814, Manama, BahrainTel. :Fax. :Cell :