1. P ÁZMÁNY U NIVERSITY On the Policy and Politics of Climate Change Session V David Ellison Institute for World Economics (Budapest) Comments Welcome ( Comments Welcome (EllisonDL@Gmail.com)EllisonDL@Gmail.com

2. Goals for Today Questions? Japan, earthquakes/tsunamis and nuclear power? International negotiations and Cancun conclusions S. Africa position Work on paper topics?

3. After Kyoto Bali Action Plan: December 2007 Mandate for negotiations on: Mandate for negotiations on: Mitigation, adaptation, forests, finance, technology transfer and capacity building Post-2012 KP regime To conclude negotiations in December 2009 (Copenhagen)

4. After Kyoto Copenhagen (December 2009) Copenhagen Agreement Copenhagen Agreement Country-level commitments (submitted to UNFCCC) Country-level commitments (submitted to UNFCCC) Country-level commitments Country-level commitments The Gigaton Gap? The Gigaton Gap? Cancun (December 2010) Cancun Agreement Cancun Agreement What happened in Cancun…? What happened in Cancun…? Half-empty or half-full? Half-empty or half-full?

5. Cancun Agreement What is included in the Cancun Agreement? 2ºC target, discussion of 1.5ºC target 2ºC target, discussion of 1.5ºC target Emission targets (some 80 countries), blurs lines between Annex I and non-Annex I countries…? Emission targets (some 80 countries), blurs lines between Annex I and non-Annex I countries…? Adaptation Committee Adaptation Committee Financing (Green Climate Fund) Financing (Green Climate Fund) MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) Negotiation extended (COP17 in Durban S. Africa) Negotiation extended (COP17 in Durban S. Africa) REDD initiated REDD initiated CDM will be continued CDM will be continued

6. Country Groupings at Cancun US Japan, Russia, Canada EU? Cartagena group plus Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK Cartagena group plus Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK 30%: UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden 30%: UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden 20%: Germany, France, CEE 20%: Germany, France, CEE Leadership? Leadership?Brazil China, India Bolivia S. Africa – Zsuzsanna

7. Surveying the Future? Given what you know about the individual member countries: Estimate chances for success in Durban S. Africa (COP17) Estimate chances for success in Durban S. Africa (COP17) How are issues like election years important? How are issues like election years important? Does the role of host country matter and how? Does the role of host country matter and how? Which countries are not likely to participate and how does this matter? Which countries are not likely to participate and how does this matter? Is China a willing partner? Is China a willing partner? What role do countries like Burundi play? What role do countries like Burundi play? What role should the developed countries play? What role should the developed countries play?

8. Is this Man Crazy? Compare Mike Tidwell to Robert Stavins Which approach is more reasoned? Which approach is more reasoned? Can you explain Stavins way of thinking about Cancun? Can you explain Stavins way of thinking about Cancun? Can you explain Tidwell’s way of thinking? Can you explain Tidwell’s way of thinking? Who is more responsible/irresponsible? Who is more responsible/irresponsible?

9. How can Things be Done Differently? Your suggestions: 1) 1)

10. Thank you for listening…! Questions and Comments welcome: David Ellison (Ellisondl@gmail.com) Ellisondl@gmail.com