1. Economic Progress and the Decline of the Countryside James Dunn Pennsylvania State University

2. Economic Progress has certain changes Agriculture becomes more efficient –Economies of scale –Substitute capital for labor –Fewer, but bigger farms –Scientific advances Better roads make shopping (or working) elsewhere possible Larger factories & mechanization reduce off-farm employment

5. Poland’s Dairy Herd Source: Piotr Szajner: Polish Dairy Outlook

6. Manufacturing Factories get bigger and more modern –Substitute capital for labor –More mechanization

7. Polish Dairy Processors Source: Piotr Szajner: Polish Dairy Outlook

8. Transportation Better roads More cars More four lane roads Bigger and better trucks Containerized freight

9. Retailing Chain stores Hyper marts More items in store More items from far away Lower prices for ordinary goods

10. Villages Small shops struggle Smaller and fewer farm families Bachelor farmers Bedroom communities – work in the city, live in the village – shop in the city Lots of old people – few young families Fewer children in school

11. Some examples Elkton –my grandfather – drug store –1940 – doctor left –1960 lots of stores –Now – very few – bedroom community Bryant –Better roads – fewer stores –Bigger farms – fewer people –Town has shrunk

13. Some more Greeley –My father last dentist – 1948 –Fire on main street – didn’t rebuild –69% fewer people in county since 1920 Serbia Ireland Australia Ukraine

14. Table 1 Selected US County Population Data 19201940196019802000growth Hamlin8,0547,5626,3035,2615,540-31% Minnehaha42,49057,69786,575109,435148,281249% Brookings16,11916,56020,04624,33228,22075% Douglas204,524247,562343,490397,038463,585127% Greeley8,6856,8454,5953,4622,714-69% Centre44,30452,60878,580112,760135,758206% Mifflin31,43942,99344,34846,90846,48648%

17. CIS states Slovakia Serbia Ukraine – private (?) farms Russia - Ussurysk, Voronezh Uzbekistan

18. What this means Villages with just ag will shrink Need something else to survive Tourism? Family history? Architecture Something else Managing shrinkage

19. Concluding Comments Must have a plan Managing growth Managing shrinkage Local government finance