1. The WOTRO Integrated Programme: ‘Vulnerability and resilience of the Brazilian Amazon forests and human environment to changes in land-use and climate’ Bart Kruijt, Maarten Waterloo, Peter Verburg, Ronald Hutjes Carlos Nobre, Flavio Luizao, Gilberto Camara Kasper Kok, Fabricio Zanchi, +…..

2. ‘Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research’ = Funding agency This is an ‘Integrated programme’: Funding up to 500 k Euro More than two sub-projects (PhD or Postdoc) Issues of Environment and development Highly integrated research

3. Who are we? Centre water and climate Co-ordinator Kruijt Hutjes, Kabat Soils Centre Verburg, Veldkamp Kok Faculty Earth Sciences Waterloo, Dolman Nobre Tomassela Camara Vianei** F. Luizao Carneiro? Regional climate and hydrology Ecosystems Integration Local and regional land-use change processes Scenario development Local ecosystems and hydrology

4. The idea: Vulnerability and resilience of the Brazilian Amazon HYPOTHESIS Large scale resilience in the Amazon can originate in regional scale feedbacks, in natural systems as well as in human livelihood, as well as in feedbacks from external, national or global influence.

5. Personnel and finance Five sub-projects (4 years), including research costs: 3 PhD grants (South-American) @ 81-92 kEuro each 0.5 Postdoc grant (South-American) @ 58 kEuro 0.5 postdoc salary (Netherlands) @ 125 kEuro PhD in Netherlands (Wageningen, Amsterdam) Grants are for use by grantees, including a little travel for NL and BR supervisor, administration in NL Equipment to stay in Brazil NO funding for permanent staff and overheads!

6. progress 2 of 3 students selected. 1 Postdoc in place, other to be selected Kick-off: As soon as possible. First meeting February Site selection: –Cuieiras reserve, ZF2-K34 –Manaus ZF3? Other human dynamic site in Amazonas? –Rondonia Rebio Jaru –Rondonia Jaru area, or near Ji-Parana: human dynamic site –Extra: sites in Para, S. Amazonas

7. Project 1: Does variability lead to resilience? To what point? undisturbed Dry climate Loss of organic layer and nutrients ?

8. Workplan Variation of drought sensitivity in physiology, rooting and soil carbon/nutrition dynamics along transects Groundwater and flooding manipulation experiment Look at undisturbed & disturbed, and aseasonal & seasonal regions

9. Project 2: land-use change processes and feed-backs How will humans and policy respond to changes?

10. The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects: CLUE A dynamic model for the simulation of scenarios Peter Verburg Department of Environmental Sciences Wageningen University, the Netherlands

12. Project 2: Work plan paramaterise and run models Identify feed-back driving forces from local climate effects to land-use.

13. Project 3 :Effects of land cover variability and hydrological heterogeneity on meso-scale climate in the Brazilian Amazon central hypotheses : Small scale hydrologic variability may reduce the impacts of changing land cover on changing rainfall patterns through a buffering effect. There exist teleconnections where deforestation in one part of the region affects climate in another.

14. Project 3 deforestation or forest collapse surface energy partitioning regional rainfall feedback strength? deforestation patterns hydrological heterogeneity various scales

15. Project 3 Effects of land cover variability and hydrological heterogeneity on meso-scale climate in the Brazilian Amazon deforestation or forest collapse surface energy partitioning regional rainfall feedback strength? hydrological heterogeneity

16. Project 3 Effects of land cover variability and hydrological heterogeneity on meso-scale climate in the Brazilian Amazon deforestation or forest collapse surface energy partitioning regional rainfall feedback strength? hydrological heterogeneity Cuieiras (Manaus)

17. Project 3 Effects of land cover variability and hydrological heterogeneity on meso-scale climate in the Brazilian Amazon deforestation or forest collapse surface energy partitioning regional rainfall feedback strength? deforestation patterns Friagems ? Large scale

18. Project 3 Effects of land cover variability and hydrological heterogeneity on meso-scale climate in the Brazilian Amazon deforestation or forest collapse surface energy partitioning regional rainfall feedback strength? deforestation patterns Atlantic moisture input? Large scale

19. Project 3 Effects of land cover variability and hydrological heterogeneity on meso-scale climate in the Brazilian Amazon deforestation or forest collapse surface energy partitioning regional rainfall feedback strength? ‘small’ scale Avissar 2003 Type effects deforestation patterns

20. Integration

21. Project 4/5: Scenario testing and participation 1.Develop regional scenarios, based on existing exercises (Project 4) 2.Downscaling to local level, using interviews (Step 1). 3.Discuss scenarios at stakeholder workshop (Step 2). 4.Quantify narratives and use in models (Step 3). 5.Discuss model results at second workshop (Step 4). 6.Final workshop/meeting with policy makers (Step 5).

22. Final products Three PhDs Insight into sustainable development pathways Final stakeholder workshop in 2008

23. What is CLUE? CLUE is methodology to model near-future changes in land use patterns CLUE is a hybrid methodology, combination of: –Cellular Automata –Markov Chains –Decision Rules –Statistical Analysis Specification dependent on scale, land use processes, case study

24. Map of predicted agricultural expansion into forest

25. Validation (?) Interesting coincidences and differences with JRC’s TREES hot spots...

26. Conclusions CLUE combines empirical/statistical characterization of location suitability with dynamic modeling of land use change Combining the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use change is one of the main challenges of LUCC research Spatially explicit models can help to assess the effects of land use change on e.g. biodiversity through scenario analysis

29. Project 3 Workplan monitor hydrological links between plateaus/ridges and valleys –both forested and deforested slopes –Manaus and Rondonia Parameterise REW (representative elementary watershed model) or VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) models –scale ‘independent’ ! Couple REW or VIC to (B)RAMS Do runs for whole Amazon –Realistic deforestation paterns –Current/projected (project 2) –Switch on/off hydrological (subgrid) heterogeneity –Possible zoom-ins on field study areas Analyse effects on rainfall, soil moisture Couple to results project 1 > consequences carbon exchange