2. Yaqui Valley Land-Water System WaterAgriculture Industry Wetlands Aquaculture Urban Fisheries + Marine Estuaries + Fisheries Climate  (sea level, precip) Market  Banks Credit Technology  Energy  Water Demand  (outside) Note: institutions for each, but no institutions for integrated system

3. Responding to: Climate change and weather variability Global Markets Fluctuation of Peso Demographic shifts urbanization out-migration sea level rise Concern about: Employment Economic Status Yields and Profits Water availability Water/Air quality Human health Conservation of wetlands, marine Recreation/Tourism Vulnerability of the human- environment system

4. Research Questions What drives change in the agricultural sector and what are the consequences for livelihoods and environment? Who is most vulnerable to external forcings? What role does diversification play, and who can do it and under what conditions? What are the effects of policy changes? What are the trends in fertilizer use and why? Technological options? How do innovations become adopted?

5. Research Questions How vulnerable is the water resource, and how might it be used and allocated more efficiently for sustainable use? How can management and allocation approaches reduce vulnerability? What role does diversification play? What is the potential for changes in crops and management? How do drought and related changes in water allocation interact with soil salinity and degradation potential? Who is most vulnerable?

6. Research Questions What are the fundamental characteristics and processes of the coastal zone systems, and how are they being altered? How do the estuaries work? What is the relationship between nutrient loading or hydrologic changes due to upland activities and processes within the estuaries? What are the dynamics of land use change in the coastal system? What drives change in the coastal zone? Who are the players, and what are the linkages to the uplands and the sea?

7. The science-policy-action continuum How do we make our research useful? Design research for application in problem solving Develop decision rules and other tools Outreach and communication Influence policy

8. New Proposals NASA - remote sensing focused (pending) NOAA - decision support (funded) NSF - controls on marine processes (submit in Oct) ???

9. Project Design: Yaqui Valley How should we evolve in order to make the science- policy-action continuum more effective? Build the Team Decision makers: Officials (multi-level) Stakeholders from each box (farmers, fishers, industry owners, etc) Researchers Modeling (how to go from simple to complex, or vice versa?) Field-scale analysis Monitoring Local/national institutions Incorporate Education Link the multiple institutions Research Communication, outreach, information transfer

10. Environmental variability & change Variability & change in human conditions Exposure Sensitivity Resilience Adjustments & Adaptations Resilience System Responses Socioeconomic Conditions Biophysical conditions ∆ Risks & impacts Coupled System Exposure Structure-function biosphere & change Structure-function political economy & change Figure 3. SUST Vulnerability Framework: Complex Temporal and spatial dynamics omitted Perturbations & Stresses [environmental & socioeocnomic; kinds & sequencing] New System?